OFFICIAL 2023 NBA Draft MEGA THREAD with BRAND NEW Gonzo/Moneyball Draft Lotto Update. Put your big boards/mocks/draft stuff HERE!

[ALT GRIND 0]

On 12/7/2022 at 4:06 PM, ALT GRIND said:

Ouch!

Trevon Brazile is out for the rest of the season.

I still think he would be an interesting pick for us.  Now he might be in that range, or even in the second round.

 

My rim protector/defensive blitzer/dunker of the week might be Noah Clowney.  Alabama freshman who along with Brandon Miller (another freshman) put away the (if not YOUR) Memphis Tigers last night.  

Kendric Davis impressed... although going after a "fourth string" point guard might not be all that high on our draft night to-do list.

I am thinking that we should let the New Orleans Pelicans make a pick for us then we can draft a point guard for THEM.  lol

Ironically, Kendric Davis and Noah Clowney could be IDEAL picks for the Pels.  Could get both AND another player if they use the Lakers pick to trade DOWN (Utah Jazz have two mid-first round picks).  

 

 

 

P.S.  Apparently the OverTime Elite league's Kok Yat is recovering from an injury but is available as an "NBA free agent".  Fairly good length, athlete at around 6'8.  

P.P.S.  We MUST address weaknesses in the draft -- at 27 (or 28ish) and 46/57 that's too low for any of the Tier 1, Tier 2 or maybe even the HIGH Tier 3 guys.  Then you are basically looking at ROLE PLAYERS.  I would favor ATHLETIC/LONG/LOW USAGE role players who can offer some spacing/vertical spacing and defensive intensity/versatility.  Bonus points for REBOUNDING.  Passing/secondary play making would be a plus but I feel like Bane and Konchar do a bit of that well enough (and we are 3 deep in legit point guards).  ... basically, try to draft over ZW.  UPGRADE over BC -- get a longer/bouncier/stronger version of him who can space the floor a bit better and guard a bit more in space.  Basically an athletic big man that complements Jaren inside... and gives Ja another lob threat.  DELUXE replacement level ZW gives you a legit 3rd wing (replacement level 6th man) to come in for either Bane or Dillon.  Maybe a Yuta Watanabe type would help.  Failing that, go after a De'Anthony Melton type.  

P.P.P.S.  Tillman/LaRavia/future second round picks should DEFINITELY be shopped if they can help us get a high level role player/role players on draft night.  

[ALT GRIND 0]

Any Grizzlies-style players on our draft radar?

What about some "older vets" like Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jaime Jacquez Jr?  Drew Peterson is solid and we worked him out last year.

The top 1/done's won't be there at 28ish.  I think Noah Clowney won't be there either....

I like Jamarion Sharp as a 7'5 emergency shot blocker off the bench, but he should be available with our 2nd round pick.  I actually think we have TWO second round picks.

... don't rule out Emoni Bates as a viable draft pick.

Matthew Murrell can shoot the ball well.

If Caleb Love can show some stuff on defense maybe he would be worth looking into.

 

[kevofrommempho 0]

On 12/17/2022 at 6:40 PM, ALT GRIND said:

Any Grizzlies-style players on our draft radar?

What about some "older vets" like Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jaime Jacquez Jr?  Drew Peterson is solid and we worked him out last year.

The top 1/done's won't be there at 28ish.  I think Noah Clowney won't be there either....

I like Jamarion Sharp as a 7'5 emergency shot blocker off the bench, but he should be available with our 2nd round pick.  I actually think we have TWO second round picks.

... don't rule out Emoni Bates as a viable draft pick.

Matthew Murrell can shoot the ball well.

If Caleb Love can show some stuff on defense maybe he would be worth looking into.

 

I like Oscar Tshiebwe at 28.

[kevofrommempho 0]

On 12/17/2022 at 6:40 PM, ALT GRIND said:

Any Grizzlies-style players on our draft radar?

What about some "older vets" like Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jaime Jacquez Jr?  Drew Peterson is solid and we worked him out last year.

The top 1/done's won't be there at 28ish.  I think Noah Clowney won't be there either....

I like Jamarion Sharp as a 7'5 emergency shot blocker off the bench, but he should be available with our 2nd round pick.  I actually think we have TWO second round picks.

... don't rule out Emoni Bates as a viable draft pick.

Matthew Murrell can shoot the ball well.

If Caleb Love can show some stuff on defense maybe he would be worth looking into.

 

Jaylen Clark looks like an interesting Grizzlies style player that might be available when we pick.

[ALT GRIND 0]

46 minutes ago, kevofrommempho said:

Jaylen Clark looks like an interesting Grizzlies style player that might be available when we pick.

Ok, cool.  Don't know who he is so I just looked him up.  Nice points per game.  UCLA product and I really like Pac-10 ball.  Good brand of basketball in the PACK LITE conference.  

For guys in his range, sleepers, and generally any non-lotto picks I tend to lean more heavily on advanced stats.

In our range, I also like Emoni Bates (old comp of George Gervin new comp of Reggie Miller) as an IDEAL 6th man instant offense type.  Ja/Bane/Dillon/Jaren/Adams is as an iconic of a starting five as you can get... but after that our team lacks a bit of scoring punch.  

Drew Peterson: USC product... toolsy.  Should be there in the second round (we have two second round picks).

I also like Jamarion Sharp who might actually be AS GOOD as Wembanyama in things you draft centers for (blocking shots and dunking) and might actually be a BETTER rebounder.

Our bench mob cache of weapons (Tyus/Chandler/Konchar/ZW/Roddy/Clarke/Aldama) is perfectly acceptable.  Just need that high end scoring weapon.  Plus an extra lob threat/rim protector.  

[ALT GRIND 0]

8 hours ago, kevofrommempho said:

I like Oscar Tshiebwe at 28.

Good idea.  Fairly mobile.  Should be a nice pairing with Jaren.  He can rebound at a high rate (last year he had one of the better rebounding rates in modern history I think).  Can also dunk.  Z Bo vibes.

Started off more slowly this season, BUT he is a bit under the radar.

Even if we don't draft him we should DEFINITELY bring him in.  Just a really good Grit 'n Grind/ALT GRIND type.  

Thanks for the suggestion!

[ALT GRIND 0]

On 11/25/2022 at 4:23 PM, ALT GRIND said:

UPDATED ALT GRIND/Moneyball Lotto with tiers: Post-TANKSgiving Edition

 

Victor Wembanyama

Brandon Miller

Amen Thompson

Keyonte George/Scoot Henderson/Jarace Walker/Gradey ****/Julian Phillips

Kendric Davis

Jamarion Sharp/Kaodirichi (Memphis)/Kyle Filipowski/Anthony Black

Trevon Brazile

A couple of days ago I posted a Big Board on the NBA Draft Reddit page with the "big 3" all in Tier 0.75 -- meaning that I think that Vic/Scoot/Amen are basically a cut above "most" top picks year in and year out.

But, I had AMEN THOMPSON at ONE.  With a comp of Point Jordan LITE.  That lit things up.  lol

Vic at 2 with Scoot at 3, then basically a drop off.  Although I think Brandon Miller looks like the guy at 4 now.

In other news... Kaodirichi just had 14 points and 7 blocks off the bench for the Memphis Tigers tonight.  Anyone at the game?

[ALT GRIND 0]

TANKATHON LOTTO UPDATE

 

1.  Utah Jazz                               Amen Thompson

2. Orlando Magic                        Victor Wembanyama

3. New Orleans Pelicans            Scoot Henderson

4. Washington Wizards               Brandon Miller

5. Detroit Pistons                         Taylor Hendricks

6. Charlotte Hornets                    Ausar Thompson

7. Houston Rockets                     Gradey ****

8. San Antonio Spurs                   Noah Clowney

9. Orlando Magic                          Anthony Black

10. Toronto Raptors                      Cason Wallace

11. Oklahoma City Thunder        Jarace Walker

12. Golden State Warriors           Cam Whitmore

13. Atlanta Hawks                        Kel 'El Ware

14. Utah Jazz                                Keyonte George

[ALT GRIND 0]

On 12/19/2022 at 7:36 AM, kevofrommempho said:

I like Oscar Tshiebwe at 28.

UPDATE: 

Tshiebwe is STILL getting it done.  

Not sure if he is a 4 or a 5 in the NBA but would actually be a good fit with Jaren.  

I would be happy with that pick.

We could probably go after wing players but after Thompson Twins/Brandon Miller/Gradey **** I don't really like many of the wing players.  

Jaime Jaquez, Jr. is just solid.  Not really flashy, just produces.  Doesn't hit a ton of 3's but hit a couple in his last game.  

I think either would be a good value at 28.

... with conference play under way, I think we will start to get a better feel for the draft and the best prospects (at least for us).

[Rdk4121 0]

1 hour ago, ALT GRIND said:

UPDATE: 

Tshiebwe is STILL getting it done.  

Not sure if he is a 4 or a 5 in the NBA but would actually be a good fit with Jaren.  

I would be happy with that pick.

We could probably go after wing players but after Thompson Twins/Brandon Miller/Gradey **** I don't really like many of the wing players.  

Jaime Jaquez, Jr. is just solid.  Not really flashy, just produces.  Doesn't hit a ton of 3's but hit a couple in his last game.  

I think either would be a good value at 28.

... with conference play under way, I think we will start to get a better feel for the draft and the best prospects (at least for us).

I doubt Tshiebwe can guard the 4 in the NBA. He's an undersized 5, similar to Isiah Stewart of the Pistons. Rebounding monster, but no real post game to speak of. He gets almost all of his scoring off of dump offs or putbacks. He does have a decent mid-range jumper, but doubtful that's something he would rely on in the NBA. His offense game is fairly reminiscent of Steven Adams at this point in time. He does have enough length to be a decent enough rim protector, not too dissimilar from Adams once again. 

Kentucky is incredibly reliant on him. In fact, he just played all 40 minutes in tonight's game against LSU. If we're after a long term Steven 
Adams replacement, that's not a bad pick. We could do a similar thing with how we're doing Chandler and Tyus, though he's considerably older than Chandler. He could certainly take Tillman's spot. Obviously there's also Junior waiting in the wings as well, but there's no telling if he can really play in the NBA at this point. 

[fanboyslim 0]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the last time we kept our own 1st round pick was in 2019 when we picked Ja. I'd be shocked if our late 2023 lottery pick isn't traded.

Also, other than Ja who was as obvious a choice as possible in 2019, when was the last time someone in the boards predicted a pick correctly? Just curious.

[chipc3 0]

2 hours ago, fanboyslim said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the last time we kept our own 1st round pick was in 2019 when we picked Ja. I'd be shocked if our late 2023 lottery pick isn't traded.

Also, other than Ja who was as obvious a choice as possible in 2019, when was the last time someone in the boards predicted a pick correctly? Just curious.

I picked Josh Selby a while back. That was on 3 Shades of Blue so it was a big deal to nail a 2nd round pick. I also had Jaren picked correctly when everyone else thought the Grizzlies were trading that pick. 

[10SC-2-TOKYO 0]

Just now, chipc3 said:

I picked Josh Selby a while back. That was on 3 Shades of Blue so it was a big deal to nail a 2nd round pick. I also had Jaren picked correctly when everyone else thought the Grizzlies were trading that pick. 

I vaguely remember you sitting in the Forum at the draft doubling down on the Jaren pick... you were in the minority 

[chipc3 0]

4 minutes ago, 10SC-2-TOKYO said:

I vaguely remember you sitting in the Forum at the draft doubling down on the Jaren pick... you were in the minority 

That was the only time I remember the crowd at FedEx Forum booing a draft pick. I wasn't there when Wallace took Robert Archibald over Carlos Boozer of course. 

[ThaGhostOfThaBeet 0]

On 12/28/2022 at 3:16 PM, ALT GRIND said:

TANKATHON LOTTO UPDATE

 

1.  Utah Jazz                               Amen Thompson

2. Orlando Magic                        Victor Wembanyama

3. New Orleans Pelicans            Scoot Henderson

4. Washington Wizards               Brandon Miller

5. Detroit Pistons                         Taylor Hendricks

6. Charlotte Hornets                    Ausar Thompson

7. Houston Rockets                     Gradey ****

8. San Antonio Spurs                   Noah Clowney

9. Orlando Magic                          Anthony Black

10. Toronto Raptors                      Cason Wallace

11. Oklahoma City Thunder        Jarace Walker

12. Golden State Warriors           Cam Whitmore

13. Atlanta Hawks                        Kel 'El Ware

14. Utah Jazz                                Keyonte George

Funny how the censorship won't let you list a player's last name

[kevofrommempho 0]

9 hours ago, Rdk4121 said:

I doubt Tshiebwe can guard the 4 in the NBA. He's an undersized 5, similar to Isiah Stewart of the Pistons. Rebounding monster, but no real post game to speak of. He gets almost all of his scoring off of dump offs or putbacks. He does have a decent mid-range jumper, but doubtful that's something he would rely on in the NBA. His offense game is fairly reminiscent of Steven Adams at this point in time. He does have enough length to be a decent enough rim protector, not too dissimilar from Adams once again. 

Kentucky is incredibly reliant on him. In fact, he just played all 40 minutes in tonight's game against LSU. If we're after a long term Steven 
Adams replacement, that's not a bad pick. We could do a similar thing with how we're doing Chandler and Tyus, though he's considerably older than Chandler. He could certainly take Tillman's spot. Obviously there's also Junior waiting in the wings as well, but there's no telling if he can really play in the NBA at this point. 

I think that is a smart move.  Drafting long term replacements for guys with late round picks with similar skill sets so you don't really have to change much when you move to the next guy.

[ALT GRIND 0]

5 hours ago, fanboyslim said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the last time we kept our own 1st round pick was in 2019 when we picked Ja. I'd be shocked if our late 2023 lottery pick isn't traded.

Also, other than Ja who was as obvious a choice as possible in 2019, when was the last time someone in the boards predicted a pick correctly? Just curious.

I predicted us taking Robert Archibald with our pick but that was over a decade ago... and that was on the NBA Draft Dot Net forum.

Grizz typically do a lot of unorthodox things on draft day or leading up to it.  Especially later on in the draft.

I would think that... we DON'T draft Emoni Bates just because of all the drama.  AND, we typically don't like guys who played at Memphis.

Ironically, just based on skill/talent/archetype that might be an interesting player to look at.  

... if we didn't already have THREE point guards I might take a look at drafting another.... don't like the big man depth or even the wing depth a whole lot.  Although I really like the top of the draft (but that doesn't do us any good).

Hopefully some guys turn it up during March Madness.

Tristan Vukcevic looks like a solid big man that's playing overseas.  Just had a really good game the other night.  But, he's not particularly athletic.

Out of UT, Julian Phillips has more draft hype (and I am seeing him mocked in our range), but Josiah Jordan-James has solid metrics.  His 3 ball percentage is down this year, but I thought it was better last season.  Looks to have decent athleticism/length for a small forward.

Jordan Walsh has pedigree and looks promising. I might end up putting him as high as the 10-12 range.  Maybe higher than the other Arkansas guys.

I bet we bring in Jaime Jaquez, Jr. for a work out.  He can be an (upgraded) version of Konchar.  Maybe he even shows flashes of showing "Dillon with a better shot diet".  He just seems really solid.  

Most of the "upside guys" outside of the top 5ish or so picks seem "rough" and "raw" ... with fairly low ceilings compared to other BOOM/BUST guys in previous drafts.

 

[ALT GRIND 0]

2 hours ago, kevofrommempho said:

I think that is a smart move.  Drafting long term replacements for guys with late round picks with similar skill sets so you don't really have to change much when you move to the next guy.

... assuming this is referring back to Adams.

That guy BETTER be here as long as he wants.  Until (2 seasons after?) the wheels fall off.

Tshiebwe just seems like BPA at some point, maybe pretty high.  BEST OF BREED rebounder type.

Maybe I will have him as my third big on my board after Wemby and Noah Clowney (Robert Horry/Jaren vibes).  

I like Jarace Walker as a big -- just too MEH.  Lots of great comps for him in the comments section on one of his defensive highlight packages.  lol.  With Jarace Walker I think teams are probably just getting a DELUXE version of Kevon Looney (although I think Looney is taller/longer/more physical) and basically the guy we all want Xavier Tillman to be.  

Some of my favorite archetypes are guys like Mitchell Robinson as the dunk/block shots guy.  And someone like Trey Murphy III.  I don't see EITHER.  Vic is different.  Clowney is more ground-bound.  Don't see a Trey Murphy III.  Only saw ONE of those types last season -- which is why I put Jabari Smith, Jr. at 1 on my board before the season started (and he is more efficient than a guy like Banchero... Jabari might actually be number 1 in redrafts down the road).

Yannick Kraag is an overseas guy with minimal stats/highlights and not even particularly that young, but potentially an IDEAL draft/stash guy with our mid-40ish second rounder (or with our late late second rounder).  

... the micro-niche archetypes worth going after would probably be guys who can protect the rim AND block 3 point shots.  I thought about that the other day, and knew that Mitch Rob is good at that or WAS good at that (big man is getting banged up a lot).  I JUST saw a stat on that the other day on one of the "respectable" sports ball web sites.  

Maybe Drew Pember can be that guy (UNC-Asheville) or Kaodrichi Akonbundu-Ehiogu (Memphis Tigers).  Going after former UT Vols players, guys who either transferred out of Memphis or can't get off the bench at Penny State AND guys who John Calipari can't figure out how to use at Kentucky... maybe THOSE should be the guys we go after.

Haha.

Oh, my FINAL prediction: Emoni Bates gets traded to Louisville before March Madness.

[bhoyal 0]

I saw a mock that had Alex Fudge to Memphis in the 2nd round.

Some of you wanted a guard/wing with long arms?  There ya go...

[ALT GRIND 0]

2 hours ago, bhoyal said:

I saw a mock that had Alex Fudge to Memphis in the 2nd round.

Some of you wanted a guard/wing with long arms?  There ya go...

That’s the second time today I have seen Fudge’s name being brought up as a potential value pick.

We have 3 pick. Maybe we go BPA (1st round), need/fit (mid-second), draft/stash (late 2nd).

[bhoyal 0]

If this guy doesn't have long enough arms....

[ALT GRIND 0]

5 hours ago, bhoyal said:

If this guy doesn't have long enough arms....

Maybe THIS is the year we go ALL IN on wingspan.

THIS GUY.

Then Jamarion Sharp in the second round.  He's like 7'5 (probably more like a legit 7'3 1/4) with a 7'7 or 7'8 wingspan.

... UCLA just won again.  Jaime Jaquez with 12/7.  He SEEMS like an ALT GRIND type.  

Got a feeling Noah Clowney won't be there.  He can be a Jaren LITE type.  He's the second big man/center on my board and it's not really close.

Jarace Walker had a good game for Houston.  He's probably out of our price range.

After those guys and Oscar Tshiebwe (basically a known quantity at this point), Tristan Vukcevic is the next big man on my board -- he had a good game the other day. Good size, can shoot, supposedly can pass but kinda BIG/SLOW.  

Don't like many wings in this draft really.  I like Brandon Miller and Gradey D but that's about it.  I am also counting the Thompson Twins (1 and either 3 or 4 on my board) as lead guards/combo guards.

Reggie Miller LITE types like Emoni Bates, Jett Howard, Maxwell Lewis (wasn't that Smart's first/middle name on GET SMART???), then Kris Murray and kind of fits that description too.  

Jordan Hawkins looks like a boom/bust guy... kinda like John Starks.  Might not be in our range anyway.

IF we go UPSIDE BPA with our first rounder, maybe we can take a FIT/NEED guy with our mid-second rounder.  Maybe a draft/stash guy with our late/late second round pick (Yannick Kraag would be worth a look).

 

 

 

P.S. Ok, ok, just saw highlights/ticker on ESPN2.  Kris Murray went for 30/10. About to show highlights.  He could be a player worth looking at.  Maybe even worth trading up a bit.  Might be somewhere between ZW/LaRavia as an archetype with maybe a higher FLOOR than ZW and a higher CEILING than LaRavia.  If he can GUARD anybody, he might be one of my top options outside of Amen/Vic/Ausar/Scoot as well as Gradey/Brandon Miller/Keyonte George/Noah Clowney/Cason Wallace (in some order).  Then, after that, I think the draft drops off a bit.  

[ALT GRIND 0]

23 hours ago, bhoyal said:

I saw a mock that had Alex Fudge to Memphis in the 2nd round.

Some of you wanted a guard/wing with long arms?  There ya go...

I would draft Alex Fudge just for THIS highlight!

#DoctorFudge

 

[bhoyal 0]

15 hours ago, ALT GRIND said:

Maybe THIS is the year we go ALL IN on wingspan.

THIS GUY.

Then Jamarion Sharp in the second round.  He's like 7'5 (probably more like a legit 7'3 1/4) with a 7'7 or 7'8 wingspan.

... UCLA just won again.  Jaime Jaquez with 12/7.  He SEEMS like an ALT GRIND type.  

Got a feeling Noah Clowney won't be there.  He can be a Jaren LITE type.  He's the second big man/center on my board and it's not really close.

Jarace Walker had a good game for Houston.  He's probably out of our price range.

After those guys and Oscar Tshiebwe (basically a known quantity at this point), Tristan Vukcevic is the next big man on my board -- he had a good game the other day. Good size, can shoot, supposedly can pass but kinda BIG/SLOW.  

Don't like many wings in this draft really.  I like Brandon Miller and Gradey D but that's about it.  I am also counting the Thompson Twins (1 and either 3 or 4 on my board) as lead guards/combo guards.

Reggie Miller LITE types like Emoni Bates, Jett Howard, Maxwell Lewis (wasn't that Smart's first/middle name on GET SMART???), then Kris Murray and kind of fits that description too.  

Jordan Hawkins looks like a boom/bust guy... kinda like John Starks.  Might not be in our range anyway.

IF we go UPSIDE BPA with our first rounder, maybe we can take a FIT/NEED guy with our mid-second rounder.  Maybe a draft/stash guy with our late/late second round pick (Yannick Kraag would be worth a look).

 

 

 

P.S. Ok, ok, just saw highlights/ticker on ESPN2.  Kris Murray went for 30/10. About to show highlights.  He could be a player worth looking at.  Maybe even worth trading up a bit.  Might be somewhere between ZW/LaRavia as an archetype with maybe a higher FLOOR than ZW and a higher CEILING than LaRavia.  If he can GUARD anybody, he might be one of my top options outside of Amen/Vic/Ausar/Scoot as well as Gradey/Brandon Miller/Keyonte George/Noah Clowney/Cason Wallace (in some order).  Then, after that, I think the draft drops off a bit.  

Emoni Bates - mister inconsistent.  Had 36 vs South Carolina but SC is surprisingly undersized for the SEC.

Illinois State held him to 9 points.  And he recently had a 2-14 shooting game vs Bowling Green State.  I'm not sold on him.

[kevofrommempho 0]

Brice Sensabaugh should be shooting up people's draft boards.   Very similar players to Bane but he is having more success earlier in his career.