OFFICIAL 2023 NBA Draft MEGA THREAD with BRAND NEW Gonzo/Moneyball Draft Lotto Update. Put your big boards/mocks/draft stuff HERE!

[chipc3 0]

On 10/13/2022 at 11:31 PM, ALT GRIND said:

 

Whatever pads the stats on my draft thread....

Hopefully the draft stuff stays in as few a number of threads as possible, hopefully just mine.

One can dream but it is a pipe dream. Someone will post another thread. It always happens. In fact, I know one particular poster who has been warned about multiple threads on the same subject...

[ThaGhostOfThaBeet 0]

On 10/12/2022 at 9:08 AM, kevofrommempho said:

I think it is cool that there are two twins slated to be drafted high.  I'm always fascinated by sports playing identical twins and how one is usually much better than the other.  

There's also a 3rd twin projected for the 1st round.  The other half of the Murray twins.  Won't be drafted as high has his brother, but will be interesting to see how he does this year at Iowa without his brother.  

[kevofrommempho 0]

2 minutes ago, ThaGhostOfThaBeet said:

There's also a 3rd twin projected for the 1st round.  The other half of the Murray twins.  Won't be drafted as high has his brother, but will be interesting to see how he does this year at Iowa without his brother.  

Yeah.  How is Keegan so much better than Kris?  I can't the difference between the two when I look at them.  Maybe Kris will flourish this year without his brother there.  

[ThaGhostOfThaBeet 0]

9 minutes ago, kevofrommempho said:

Yeah.  How is Keegan so much better than Kris?  I can't the difference between the two when I look at them.  Maybe Kris will flourish this year without his brother there.  

They're both said to be 6'9", but in all side by side images of them, Keegan looks an inch taller.  Maybe they wear different shoes.  It could be their personality effects style of play too.  Brook & Robin Lopez have very different personalities, and Brook has had much better scoring stats over their careers. 

[ALT GRIND 0]

2 hours ago, ThaGhostOfThaBeet said:

There's also a 3rd twin projected for the 1st round.  The other half of the Murray twins.  Won't be drafted as high has his brother, but will be interesting to see how he does this year at Iowa without his brother.  

Is there a RICK Wembanyama out there too?

[chipc3 0]

I loved the Thompson Twins in college. 

[ALT GRIND 0]

5 hours ago, chipc3 said:

I loved the Thompson Twins in college. 

I remember the songs from the radio.  Wasn’t watching music vids as much.  
 

Lots of those 80’s songs held up fairly well.  

[ALT GRIND 0]

On 11/3/2022 at 1:21 PM, kevofrommempho said:

Yeah.  How is Keegan so much better than Kris?  I can't the difference between the two when I look at them.  Maybe Kris will flourish this year without his brother there.  

Kris Murray should probably be draft prospect for our FO to keep an eye on.  Some “data” out there on him.  Can shoot. Good size.  Is he a better shooter than Keegan?

might just be a player in our draft range.  Probably a highly volatile draft board outside 1/2.  Just take fit/upside/talent/skill.  Some combo of that.  Pera probably has an AI algo to make draft picks.  lol

[ALT GRIND 0]

I might post a Mid-Term Draft Lotto update on Tuesday. 
 

you. have. been. warned.

 

 

P.S. All the good stuff is in the Game/GRIZZcentric threads.  Hopefully that remains the the case.  
 

P.P.S. this is the official “blow off some steam” thread.  

p.p.s. Ideally we get a Future Warriors 1st Round Pick thread too aka The Official Meet Matas Buzelis Thread.

[ALT GRIND 0]

... Grizzlies should focus on big wings/combo bigs who can blitz on defense AND offer shot blocking from the weak side.  

Ja/Bane/Jaren need to optimize offensive usage. Ja/Bane are probably close to it already....

Dillon is a decent 4th option... start him or bring him off the bench?

DRAFT OVER: ZW/Roddy/LaRavia/Aldama/Tillman EVEN IF those guys have long term futures here.

Just have to build around Ja/Bane and Jaren.  Those 3 are exponentially more important than the rest of the guys -- with Dillon/Adams/Tyus/BC/Konchar still being imminently serviceable -- although only as high level role players just not current/future go-to options.

Late first round picks/MLE signings THAT DON'T PROVIDE OPTIMAL FITS will continue to provide less and less value at higher and higher (financial/time/roster space/opportunity) costs.

[fanboyslim 0]

I must admit I haven't followed Victor Wenbanyama at all. I'm looking at his numbers in the French league and he's taken a statistical leap but most of that is explained by greatly increased minutes from last season, his percentages have improved a bit but not dramatically. But since his new team won't play Euro competitions this season it's hard to gauge his progress against the toughest competition. So what's the hype around him about?

[The J Crew 0]

4 hours ago, fanboyslim said:

I must admit I haven't followed Victor Wenbanyama at all. I'm looking at his numbers in the French league and he's taken a statistical leap but most of that is explained by greatly increased minutes from last season, his percentages have improved a bit but not dramatically. But since his new team won't play Euro competitions this season it's hard to gauge his progress against the toughest competition. So what's the hype around him about?

He's the best prospect since LeBron. Not really close. Just watch him play a few games. And will be even better in the NBA. A Giannis who can shoot. 

And he doesn't turn 19 until January. So as good as he is already, he has upside. 

[ALT GRIND 0]

On 11/7/2022 at 8:29 AM, The J Crew said:

He's the best prospect since LeBron. Not really close. Just watch him play a few games. And will be even better in the NBA. A Giannis who can shoot. 

And he doesn't turn 19 until January. So as good as he is already, he has upside. 

Some Freak vibes. Dream vibes. Not saying Vic is THAT GUY — but he might just be.  Best French import since Andre aka Vic Le Giant.  
 

After Vic, draft looks a lot flatter: get guys who fit “yer system”.  Scoot or Amen or someone else might the the odds on/off favorite at 2.

 

There are a few Millers in this draft: Brandon and Leonard and Baba.  Ironically they could all be late lotto/mid first round picks.

 

I don’t really have any updates for my Draft Big Board.  Pretty similar probably.  Gradey **** is getting more hype/buzz.  
 

next update might be a TANKSgiving Lotto Board.  
 

[Edit: it bleeped out Kansas one/done prospect Gradey’s last name, so henceforth I refer to him as Gradey Primo.]

Edited November 9, 2022 by ALT GRIND
DiC

[ALT GRIND 0]

All we need to do in the draft is find the next Hakeem Olajuwon and Scottie Pippen.

#EasyButton

[ALT GRIND 0]

Nice showing by Jarace Walker.  Good all-around... combo big?  Can he play some 5?  Moneyball Zion (with shades of Dray) potential.

 

[BAMAFREAK 0]

The guy we have been looking for is in this draft. He fits in absolutely perfectly as an elite 3 point shooting wing who can get his off the dribble and defend. 
Brandon Miller from Alabama. 
Ja

Desi

B Mill

JJJ

Kiwi

Fvis gives you even more shooting and floor spacing with 3 absolutely elite shooters at their position in Des, JJJ and Miller. Adams works at the 5 or an elite hyper athletic rim runner as well. 

[ALT GRIND 0]

3 minutes ago, BAMAFREAK said:

The guy we have been looking for is in this draft. He fits in absolutely perfectly as an elite 3 point shooting wing who can get his off the dribble and defend. 
Brandon Miller from Alabama. 
Ja

Desi

B Mill

JJJ

Kiwi

Fvis gives you even more shooting and floor spacing with 3 absolutely elite shooters at their position in Des, JJJ and Miller. Adams works at the 5 or an elite hyper athletic rim runner as well. 

Lot to like, I watched his highlights last night.  Good length for a 3.  Doubt he will be in our range, if he is that means we had a mediocre year.  Although the top 10-15 (and even 20ish picks) look deeper this year (but it could just be hype).

[BAMAFREAK 0]

2 hours ago, ALT GRIND said:

Lot to like, I watched his highlights last night.  Good length for a 3.  Doubt he will be in our range, if he is that means we had a mediocre year.  Although the top 10-15 (and even 20ish picks) look deeper this year (but it could just be hype).

Yeah I’ve actually seen him as high as 3. It will be time to consolidate assets for a big one or two. 

[ALT GRIND 0]

3 hours ago, BAMAFREAK said:

Yeah I’ve actually seen him as high as 3. It will be time to consolidate assets for a big one or two. 

Gonna be hard to trade up into that 3-5 range even throwing the Warriors ‘24 pick into the trade machine.  
 

I have already started to look at the ‘24 draft.

For ‘23 I like Jarace Walker/Keyonte George and Amen Thompson (outside of Vic/scoot).  Had them all around the top 10 I think they could all be top 5-6 guys.  
 

Ironically two other Millers look good: Leonard Miller and Baba Miller (currently suspended for fractions or something.  lol).  They are also 3/4’s.

 

[ALT GRIND 0]

Post TANKSgiving Draft Thoughts:

Victor Wembanyama, by NOT playing over the past few days, is seeing his draft stock RISE.  I think he ends up in that David Robinson/PRIME Bill Walton/PEAK Patrick Ewing/Dwight Howard-ish/PRIME Arvydas Sabonis/Nate Thurmond range of all-time-near-greatest list.

I DON'T think he ends up in that Wilt/Russell/Kareem/Hakeem/Shaq range, because it's a different era AND he takes too many jumpers, floats a bit too much, can block shots, but isn't super speedy/agile in space, AND doesn't take up horizontal space as much as you would like.  Neither a Tim Duncan who was a part-time center and full-time winner.  TD basically cut out all the fluff from his game.  

Scoot: haven't watched a ton of his stuff, but he looks both SMALLER and LESS EXPLOSIVE than he did last year.  Scoot's first step might be merely really good as opposed to being REPLACEMENT LEVEL ELITE.

Probably vying with Amen Thompson for that second pick.  Can't figure Amen out.  Maybe he's a MORE EXPLOSIVE/VERTICALLY POPPING Tony Wroten with better defense (hopefully) and more BBIQ horsepower (hopefully).  He also sounds Tyreke Evans-esque which ain't a bad 3rd place trophy in (perhaps) a one player draft.

Brandon Miller looks Full Metal Paul George-ish.  Good sign.  So, that's 2-8 in just about ANY draft all-time, but for those types sometimes it comes down to fits, workouts, and draft night leverage/finesse.  Nice shot, isn't afraid to shoot. Had a nice block last night.  Looks fluid and dunky if not uber-explosive/bouncy.  I LIKE guys who can get their shot off, you can just imagine them pulling up from 18 with ease (Rudy Gay ability).

Gradey **** is who we thought he was.  Sometimes.  Another guy in the 2-8 range.  More like a fourth option in a low-usage, catch-shoot roll who can also get some dunks, cuts well and can get to the line (hey that's the Memphis Grizzlies' entrance music!).

Jarace Walker: second big off the board after Vic?  Oakley vibes but he will have to rebound better.  Larry Johnson potential.  

Kyle Filipowski: looks like Bill Laimbeer.  Duke looks meh but Kyle can rebound and seems to have a mean streak to go along with a nice tool kit/skill set (or is it tool set/skill kit).  The Human Skill Kit Machine should be on our radar.

Emoni Bates: He's mid-major ZW.  Pelicans probably draft him and he probably plays well.

Kendric Davis: only watched him live against CBU then have seen a bit of our other games/highlights but I like his CP3 vibes.  Could be BPA fairly high -- and worth going after if we shop Tyus Jones at some point.

Baba Miller/Leonard Miller: good Miller's but perhaps not the BEST Millers.

N'faly Dante: if we DON'T either pick up a random dunk/block guy in a trade, off the waiver wires or in the first round of the draft, we should look at this guy.  I am liking the idea of using another long/athletic defensive big man next to Jaren in twin towers lineups.

Drew Peterson (USC) might be worth a look in the late second round (I think we brought him in for workouts this past summer). 

Jamarion Sharp is TALL.  He can block shots.  I overvalue those two attributes nearly every year.  Is another "2nd round flyer" type.

Dereck Lively has shown me (and the rest of the Internet Drafting Community) NOTHING.  Dariq Whitehead (Duke teammate) has shown us LESS than nothing.  Quincy Pondexter vibes?

Anthony Black looks toolsy.  He can be our new Slo Mo but he probably goes top 10.

I like Trevon Brazile's bounce.  He's had good stat lines other than dunks too (rebounds/3's).  I would be happy with him in the 18-25 range.

Waiting on Nick Smith Jr.  He's supposed to be good, but right now looks like he is mocked to go top 3-5.  Out of our price range, and even then we are kinda set in the back court with Ja/Bane (and Nick doesn't seem to possess swing forward optionality).  Jordan Walsh hasn't done a ton, but worth bringing in.  

Haven't seen/heard ANYTHING about Ousmane N'Diaye/Yannick Kraag but I did semi-deep dives (ok, 5/10 minutes TOPS) on these two and they looked fairly meh.  But, they are basically small forwards and that's an area of need for us.

Feel free to chime in.

Thought about posting an "updated" big board, but we still don't know a TON about these guys (Nick Smith, Jr. hasn't played yet; not sure Cam Whitmore has played either).

Maybe I will wait until Christmas or New Year's to post an UPDATED big board.

Thanks!

 

 

EDIT: Forgot about Baylor's Keyonte George.  He shows some upside.  Ok, lots of upside.  Good strength, some shift.  Power game.  Falls in love with the jumper but he has range.  Desmond Bane vibes... along with Brandon Miller and maybe Jarace Walker/Gradey **** and a couple others COULD be a guy worth trading up for (all-in draft night package) in the draft.  Although Vic looks like the only FULL TANK MODE guy in the draft -- ironically, maybe a great idea for Memphis.  Ja/Vic might be the coolest/most dangerous guard/big man combo in NBA history (picture Magic/Kareem being on the same timeline), AS WELL AS an ideal fit next to Jaren in deluxe twin towers lineups.  Could be the 1a option (or even the FIRST option) most nights, but would only have to be the fourth option (behind Ja/Bane/Jaren) on his off-nights.  I think by Christmas, we will get a better indication if we should go ALL IN for Victor Wembanyama or not.  The consolation prizes are looking solid too.  If this draft is at least 8 deep... and up to 15-20ish deep the correct play may be to Sneaky Tank.  

Edited November 25, 2022 by ALT GRIND

[ALT GRIND 0]

UPDATED ALT GRIND/Moneyball Lotto with tiers: Post-TANKSgiving Edition

 

Victor Wembanyama

Brandon Miller

Amen Thompson

Keyonte George/Scoot Henderson/Jarace Walker/Gradey ****/Julian Phillips

Kendric Davis

Jamarion Sharp/Kaodirichi (Memphis)/Kyle Filipowski/Anthony Black

Trevon Brazile

[ALT GRIND 0]

This draft may be... OVER HYPED.  Just a bunch of guys?

Even if Victor Wembanyama is nothing more than a glorified Sam Bowie/Andre The Giant mashup he should still probably be the odds-on favorite to go number one. 

But, man, if you just want some freakishly long dude who can dunk and block shots, why not try to trade for Blazers' recent 2 way signee Ibou Badji -- and Badji looks a good bit quicker/bouncier/athletic/explosive.  Vic can shoot better.  Badji has hit a jumper or two, but I like bigs who can just "stay home".  AND, Vic is INFINITELY more expensive than Ibou Badji.

Vic is probably anywhere from Tier 1.25 (in absolute terms... Tier 1 and up are guys with AT LEAST top 50 to top 75 ALL-TIME skills/talent UPSIDE and I am not even quite willing to go that high on Wembanyama) to Tier 1.75.

Next best player may be a quarter to half a tier (or worse) lower than that.

My current MONEYBALL HORSEMEN for the draft (or at least) potential sleeper picks who I think might add value (and should be on the Grizzlies' watch list): Kendric Davis, Drew Pember, N'faly Dante, and Matt Morrell.  Memphis/Ole Miss matchup next weekend should be fun even if Davis and Morrell don't actually guard each other -- although they might.

Wembanyama is PROBABLY worth tanking for.  The OTHER name brand guys -- probably NOT.  I mean, guys like Davis and Pember and Dante might be as good as anyone else, especially in terms of "cost".  Emoni Bates might work his way all the way back up the mock draft food chain before all is said and done.  

Davis/Morrell/Bates/Pember/Dante might ACTUALLY be really good fits -- if a team went with a Fab Five approach to the '23 draft.  

[ALT GRIND 0]

Here are some cool highlights.  I looked at him last year, guess he is back overseas or somewhere:

 

[ALT GRIND 0]

Too young to get into the '84 draft in real time, but these highlights remind me of Victor Wembanyama:

 

 

[ALT GRIND 0]

Ouch!

Trevon Brazile is out for the rest of the season.

I still think he would be an interesting pick for us.  Now he might be in that range, or even in the second round.