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Jaren Jackson the X factor

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8 hours ago, Grizzled Vet said:

 

I wouldn't take much from a 48 second edited video of him playing pickup hoops, or even if we saw 60 second videos on instagram every day.  We don't know what he has or hasn't been doing. 

I think they only thing you might take from this is the perception that he looks stronger.

 

Did anyone recognize any other player in that video?

ben simmons, winslow, aaron gordon, jordan bell

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16 hours ago, Subliminal said:

I just.. I.. I can’t…

I give up

your Braves won last night 

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11 hours ago, El Guapo said:

Low hanging fruit…just have to pass it by.
We’ll see if the Giants are for real.

Dodgers should win the WS 

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18 hours ago, lions said:

if Jaren jackson turns out to be a bust and i.m rooting for him to become a super star this will set the Grizzlies back 5 years . he MUST  be a DOUBLE/DOUBLE player

Be prepared to be disappointed then because it aint happening.  Imho if he can get up to 25 and 7 he's still a **** good player. You know how many PF average a double double last year? A whoppong 3

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3 hours ago, toocoolkellz said:

Be prepared to be disappointed then because it aint happening.  Imho if he can get up to 25 and 7 he's still a **** good player. You know how many PF average a double double last year? A whoppong 3

25 and 7 would make him a superstar - there are only 6 players in the NBA last year that averaged those numbers:

  • Joel Embiid
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo
  • Luka Doncic
  • Zion Williamson
  • Jayson Tatum
  • Nikola Jokic

Even if you expand to 20 and 7, there were still only 5 additional players to meet that criteria (all are All-Stars, some multiple time all-stars):

  • Julius Randle
  • Nikola Vucevic
  • Russell Westbrook
  • Pascal Siakam
  • Domatas Sabonis

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1 hour ago, ACGrizz said:

25 and 7 would make him a superstar - there are only 6 players in the NBA last year that averaged those numbers:

  • Joel Embiid
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo
  • Luka Doncic
  • Zion Williamson
  • Jayson Tatum
  • Nikola Jokic

Even if you expand to 20 and 7, there were still only 5 additional players to meet that criteria (all are All-Stars, some multiple time all-stars):

  • Julius Randle
  • Nikola Vucevic
  • Russell Westbrook
  • Pascal Siakam
  • Domatas Sabonis

I mean in his prime for 25 and 7, next year I can see him joining that 20 and 7 group though. 

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I hope he can play through the season next year. 18 and 7 would be solid if we have other players stepping up. 20 and 7 would be great. 
 

I am not counting on the rebounding numbers to spike though. 

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If we're doing JJJ articles, here's one from Dan Devine at The Ringer about the lack of '18 draft extensions so far for DeAndre Ayton, Michael Porter and Jaren. https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/9/9/22663178/contract-extensions-2018-class-deandre-ayton-michael-porter-jaren-jackson

Too long to post all of it, it's free so you can use the link, but Devine gets the Jaren conundrum.

And for the few posters who keep promoting the idea that Jaren could start the season at center and not Steven Adams: 

"The issues, though, come on the other end. For all his burgeoning skill as an interior deterrent . . .he’s yet to show the physical strength to keep burlier opponents from bull-rushing him inside or, perhaps even more critically, the court sense to consistently defend without hacking. Since he entered the league, no player has committed more personal fouls per 100 possessions than Jackson—a glaring flaw that greatly mitigates his effectiveness as the hoped-for linchpin of the Grizzlies’ defense.

Those concerns have become exacerbated when Jackson rides solo on the back line without a stabilizing bruiser like Jonas Valanciunas or Marc Gasol: Memphis’s defense has been worse, and sometimes dramatically so, when Jackson has lined up at center than when he’s slotted in at the 4 in each of his three pro seasons. That, presumably, is why Steven Adams is sticking around for the time being; while Memphis hopes that the Jackson of the future will be able to assume the primary responsibility of manning the middle, the Grizz haven’t seen enough evidence to suggest that the present-day model can handle the job. (Another data point to support that argument: The only player 6-foot-10 or taller who averaged fewer rebounds per possession than JJJ over the past three seasons was Davis Bertans, who essentially never gets inside the 3-point arc if he can help it.)

Add the possibility that he’s less a franchise center and more of a (gasp) “tweener” to the durability concerns that necessarily come with a big man who has missed 101 games in three seasons due to a series of leg injuries, and you can understand why Memphis not only hasn’t rushed to give Jackson a max deal, but also why there might be some apprehension on tendering any big-money contract right now."

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Not going to even bother with looking at last year's numbers for Jaren, as it didn't go well. But lineups from 2019-20 do matter.

In 2019-20, of his top 6 five-man lineups, 5 of them came with Jaren playing at center.  All 5 of which had us outrebounding the opposing team, and by an average of 3.1. I'm personally not worried about defense. He had the best defensive rating on the team last year (67% of his time was spent at center last year). He was a net positive in 2019-2020 as well. He still needs to add strength, and last year he clearly didn't have his laterally mobility completely back. I believe he will be a lot better there next year. 

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Jaren has the potential to be as good as those bigs, or even better, than some those that retired today. If he becomes as good as we will be fine.

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On 9/10/2021 at 11:06 PM, Rdk4121 said:

Not going to even bother with looking at last year's numbers for Jaren, as it didn't go well. But lineups from 2019-20 do matter.

In 2019-20, of his top 6 five-man lineups, 5 of them came with Jaren playing at center.  All 5 of which had us outrebounding the opposing team, and by an average of 3.1. I'm personally not worried about defense. He had the best defensive rating on the team last year (67% of his time was spent at center last year). He was a net positive in 2019-2020 as well. He still needs to add strength, and last year he clearly didn't have his laterally mobility completely back. I believe he will be a lot better there next year. 

 

On 9/12/2021 at 12:31 AM, Ja_Rules said:

Jaren has the potential to be as good as those bigs, or even better, than some those that retired today. If he becomes as good as we will be fine.

Potential and selective data are two of the favorite expressions of the "Jaren should play center" supporters. 

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52 minutes ago, chipc3 said:

 

Potential and selective data are two of the favorite expressions of the "Jaren should play center" supporters. 

It's not selective. I clearly stated my reasoning. I already said he sucked last year, didn't matter what position he played. I took his last healthy year of play. I know that 5 of his 6 best 5 man lineups from 2019-20 were when he played center. I also know a year that he spent 2/3rds of his time at center, he still ended up with the best defensive rating on the team. 

That's in direct response in saying we are a worse team or a worse defensive team with him at center, which I disagree with. I don't know what stats you are wanting. I'm not pretending every stat is going to look great with him at him at center, but it's certainly not more selective than taking one stat that says "oh look he's bad at center" and pretending it's gospel. 

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19 minutes ago, Rdk4121 said:

It's not selective. I clearly stated my reasoning. I already said he sucked last year, didn't matter what position he played. I took his last healthy year of play. I know that 5 of his 6 best 5 man lineups from 2019-20 were when he played center. I also know a year that he spent 2/3rds of his time at center, he still ended up with the best defensive rating on the team. 

That's in direct response in saying we are a worse team or a worse defensive team with him at center, which I disagree with. I don't know what stats you are wanting. I'm not pretending every stat is going to look great with him at him at center, but it's certainly not more selective than taking one stat that says "oh look he's bad at center" and pretending it's gospel. 

If he played only  7% of his time at center it was because he didn't match up well most of the time. True, he's going to be more effective in small ball situations, 
If he doesn't average 20 points this year, they are not prioritizing him. Adams is not a great partner for JJJ. Against most of the opposition I think Tilman can open up the middle and defend the p-n-r and allow Grizzlies to play small. 

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11 minutes ago, cousy said:

If he played only  7% of his time at center it was because he didn't match up well most of the time. True, he's going to be more effective in small ball situations, 
If he doesn't average 20 points this year, they are not prioritizing him. Adams is not a great partner for JJJ. Against most of the opposition I think Tilman can open up the middle and defend the p-n-r and allow Grizzlies to play small. 

Where are you getting 7%? He played 67% at center last year, after playing 55% the year before. Adams is not much different than him playing with JV, and we know that didn't work great. I do think that Tillman is a good pairing, but I think Brandon (particularly if they improve their rebounding) is the perfect pairing. 

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2 minutes ago, Rdk4121 said:

Where are you getting 7%? He played 67% at center last year, after playing 55% the year before. Adams is not much different than him playing- with JV, and we know that didn't work great. I do think that Tillman is a good pairing, but I think Brandon (particularly if they improve their rebounding) is the perfect pairing. 

I'm sorry, I read 6.7%. (I'm surprised that he and JV weren't paired so  much.)
At least JV could strech the floor. If Adams can do that, then I revise my position. Jaren paired with Marc his first year and featured in the low post was good training for him.  
We'll see about Brandon. Tillman  can guard centers in most lineups which Brandon cannot. That might be crucial given the foul situation.

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1 hour ago, Rdk4121 said:

It's not selective. I clearly stated my reasoning. I already said he sucked last year, didn't matter what position he played. I took his last healthy year of play. I know that 5 of his 6 best 5 man lineups from 2019-20 were when he played center. I also know a year that he spent 2/3rds of his time at center, he still ended up with the best defensive rating on the team. 

That's in direct response in saying we are a worse team or a worse defensive team with him at center, which I disagree with. I don't know what stats you are wanting. I'm not pretending every stat is going to look great with him at him at center, but it's certainly not more selective than taking one stat that says "oh look he's bad at center" and pretending it's gospel. 

So ignoring his rookie season and his last season isn't selective? If you say so. 

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47 minutes ago, chipc3 said:

So ignoring his rookie season and his last season isn't selective? If you say so. 

Rookie season before this current staff got here? Yeah, that's reasonable. I'm not ignoring last year, he was bad in every lineup essentially last year. I'm not sure what else to say there. He wasn't good at PF or at C, I'm not sure how that helps this debate at all. It was also about 7.5% of his total minutes played coming off a 9 month long injury layoff where he was getting back into shape in his 11 games played. 

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