Grizzled Vet

The reasonably optimistic, somewhat likely 20-21 playoff thread.

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Last year's overly optimistic, highly unlikely playoff thread was started in December, after 34 games with 48 to go.  Not surprisingly, nobody at the beginning of last year's playoff thread correctly predicted that there would be a global pandemic, all sporting events would be paused, the team would join 21 other teams in a bubble in Orlando, a new playoff format would be accepted, and the Grizzlies would miss out from being an official playoff team. 

As of today, with 50 games potentially remaining, the 11-11 Grizzlies sit in 9th, halfway between 7th (Denver Nuggets) and 14th with only the Timberwolves likely out of playoff contention.

So 1-3 appear locks for the playoffs (Jazz, Lakers, Clippers).

The important 4-6 positions are Suns, Portland, Spurs.

7-10 play-in teams: Nuggets, Warriors, Grizzlies, Mavericks

11-14 still fighting: Kings, Rockets, Pelicans, and Thunder.

If you are counting, that is 5 teams above them in striking distance, and 5 teams below them that see the Grizzlies as within easy striking distance.

 

So do the Grizzlies finish in the Play-in tournament? Outside looking in the lottery?

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Grizzled Vet said:

Last year's overly optimistic, highly unlikely playoff thread was started in December, after 34 games with 48 to go.  Not surprisingly, nobody at the beginning of last year's playoff thread correctly predicted that there would be a global pandemic, all sporting events would be paused, the team would join 21 other teams in a bubble in Orlando, a new playoff format would be accepted, and the Grizzlies would miss out from being an official playoff team. 

As of today, with 50 games potentially remaining, the 11-11 Grizzlies sit in 9th, halfway between 7th (Denver Nuggets) and 14th with only the Timberwolves likely out of playoff contention.

So 1-3 appear locks for the playoffs (Jazz, Lakers, Clippers).

The important 4-6 positions are Suns, Portland, Spurs.

7-10 play-in teams: Nuggets, Warriors, Grizzlies, Mavericks

11-14 still fighting: Kings, Rockets, Pelicans, and Thunder.

If you are counting, that is 5 teams above them in striking distance, and 5 teams below them that see the Grizzlies as within easy striking distance.

 

So do the Grizzlies finish in the Play-in tournament? Outside looking in the lottery?

 

 

 

I have been thinking that only a game or 3 will separate the 6th seed and the 11th seed.  The playoff standings might get separation.  Maybe not.  I am gonna be an optimist and say that we get that 6th seed.  

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It will be interesting to see who becomes sellers as the trade deadline approaches.  I keep expecting OKC to fall off, but it hasn't happened.

All the teams from 7 to 14 are 5-5, 6-4, or 4-6 in their last 10 so these games against these "other" playoff hopefuls are huge (probably didn't need to be said, but I said it)

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53 minutes ago, Grizzled Vet said:

It will be interesting to see who becomes sellers as the trade deadline approaches.  I keep expecting OKC to fall off, but it hasn't happened.

All the teams from 7 to 14 are 5-5, 6-4, or 4-6 in their last 10 so these games against these "other" playoff hopefuls are huge (probably didn't need to be said, but I said it)

OKC keeps slowly but surely falling back. I'm not really sure what to make of San Antonio or GS. They both feel like they are overachieving to an extent. 

I don't have much faith in either New Orleans or Sacramento. Both fairly young, but both are just immature teams. I can't see them turning it on late it in the season. I'm not sure what is up with the Mavericks, but they just aren't very good. Houston is kind of the same, but they might be much different when Wood returns from injury. 

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1 hour ago, Rdk4121 said:

OKC keeps slowly but surely falling back. I'm not really sure what to make of San Antonio or GS. They both feel like they are overachieving to an extent. 

I don't have much faith in either New Orleans or Sacramento. Both fairly young, but both are just immature teams. I can't see them turning it on late it in the season. I'm not sure what is up with the Mavericks, but they just aren't very good. Houston is kind of the same, but they might be much different when Wood returns from injury. 

The Warriors feel like Steph and a bunch of guys.  Even if Wiseman gets back he was basically putting up Stromile Swift stats although the eye test/pedigree suggest that Wiseman will (eventually?) be a lot better than the Stro Show — although maybe not.  Luka is putting up stats but not really winning much.  Mavs potentially are botching the Luka Rebuild.  Already out a first for the Luka draft night trade, they mortgaged the ranch (it’s Texas ya’ll) for Kristaps Porizingis and he’s either been hurt or not the force-of-nature (reliable) second option they need him to be.  Pels remind me of those Lake Show teams.  Can you win with Zion as a top 2 guy?  Efficiency machine scoring the ball but doesn’t space the floor, defend or even rebound all that well.  Kings’ ceiling looks fairly low.  Looks like they are headed for play-in purgatory (at best) over the long-term.  
 

As long as we avoid any more 4 game losing streaks (or worse) I like our chances to get the 6th seed.  
 

#BeatLA

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I think the question is, at what draft pick spot do you prefer just missing the playin tourney for better lottery odds.

I'd rather be #10 instead of #11, but I'd rather be #13 seed instead of #10. 

 

 

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We'll be better after JJJ returns, and if Winslow exists, but when they do appear we might drop a couple as the lineup rebalances. I can only hope that JJJ and JW have absorbed the system by watching. 

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Last night went favorably for those that want playoffs.

Rockets lost to Wizards in Wall's return & Nets beat Kings, but Warriors beat Cleveland.

The Rockets slowly sinking to out of playoff contention.

A Grizz win tonight over NOP, and a Blazers win over the Thunder would help create a larger gap so that the T'Wolves just aren't sitting by themselves.

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7 minutes ago, Grizzled Vet said:

Last night went favorably for those that want playoffs.

Rockets lost to Wizards in Wall's return & Nets beat Kings, but Warriors beat Cleveland.

The Rockets slowly sinking to out of playoff contention.

A Grizz win tonight over NOP, and a Blazers win over the Thunder would help create a larger gap so that the T'Wolves just aren't sitting by themselves.

Agree with one alteration, Rockets aren't slowly sinking, imo, they are dropping like a rock. Have lost 6 straight, and none of the teams they lost to had winning records, since  the Christian Wood injury. Kings now have lost 4 straight, and Pels 3 straight. 

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3 minutes ago, The J Crew said:

Agree with one alteration, Rockets aren't slowly sinking, imo, they are dropping like a rock. Have lost 6 straight, and none of the teams they lost to had winning records, since  the Christian Wood injury. Kings now have lost 4 straight, and Pels 3 straight. 

And they have to be looking to get what they can for any assets like Eric Gordon or PJ Tucker.

I could also see them being very, very slow to bring back Wood because they only own the draft pick if it is in the Top 4.

It is crazy to read the obligations on that draft pick.

- 1-4 Own; or least favorable of HOU 5-30, MIA and OKC and two most favorable to OKC (via MIA to PHX to PHL to LAC to OKC; via OKC swap of OKC or MIA for HOU) [may be swapped by HOU for BRK]; DET 17-30 [may be swapped by HOU for BRK]; POR 15-30 [may be swapped by HOU for BRK]; HOU swap of HOU, OKC, MIA, DET 17-30 or POR 15-30 for BRK in accordance with other conditions

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4 minutes ago, Grizzled Vet said:

And they have to be looking to get what they can for any assets like Eric Gordon or PJ Tucker.

I could also see them being very, very slow to bring back Wood because they only own the draft pick if it is in the Top 4.

It is crazy to read the obligations on that draft pick.

- 1-4 Own; or least favorable of HOU 5-30, MIA and OKC and two most favorable to OKC (via MIA to PHX to PHL to LAC to OKC; via OKC swap of OKC or MIA for HOU) [may be swapped by HOU for BRK]; DET 17-30 [may be swapped by HOU for BRK]; POR 15-30 [may be swapped by HOU for BRK]; HOU swap of HOU, OKC, MIA, DET 17-30 or POR 15-30 for BRK in accordance with other conditions

I was surprised they didn't get off of the Gordon contract in the Harden trade. Why not tell the Nets they are willing to take one less 1st rounder and one less pick swap to include Gordon in the trade? And PJ has just fallen off the cliff, 5.6 PER, a buyout candidate if they don't trade him at the deadline. 

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22 minutes ago, The J Crew said:

I was surprised they didn't get off of the Gordon contract in the Harden trade. Why not tell the Nets they are willing to take one less 1st rounder and one less pick swap to include Gordon in the trade? And PJ has just fallen off the cliff, 5.6 PER, a buyout candidate if they don't trade him at the deadline. 

Tucker worked well in D'Antoni's fast paced spread offense with two on-ball creators doing drives and PNR sets. Houston doesn't have the players to do that anymore, so he is suffering.  PJ reminds me of Horace Grant, who was always best with two other players attracting the majority of the defensive attention so that he could slip into the cracks when the opposition forgot about him.

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Pretty good night for the Grizzlies:

Win over Thunder (check)

Rockets lose to Sixers (check)

Wizards (!!) beat Nuggets (check)

Blazers beat Pelicans (+/-).

Warriors playing Heat (TBD)

Grizz will end the night in 9th place, either one-half or 1 game behind 8th.

 

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After 32 games played, the Grizzlies hit ASB at 16-16. While that would be good enough for 5th in the East, they sit alone in 10th in the West.

The West is breaking into some tiers at this time with about 2-3 games separating each tier. Not much, but while a team may go up or down a tier, nobody is going up or down 2 tiers.

 

1-4 Jazz, Lakers, Suns, Clippers.  Not sure any other team will get into this top 4 barring major injury

5-7 Blazers, Nuggets, and Spurs. 3 teams with just a .5 game separating them

8-10 Mavs, Warriors, Grizzlies. 

11-13 Pelicans, Kings, Thunder - Still in striking distance with so much of the season to go

Lottery bound - Rockets & T'Wolves

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20 minutes ago, Grizzled Vet said:

After 32 games played, the Grizzlies hit ASB at 16-16. While that would be good enough for 5th in the East, they sit alone in 10th in the West.

The West is breaking into some tiers at this time with about 2-3 games separating each tier. Not much, but while a team may go up or down a tier, nobody is going up or down 2 tiers.

 

1-4 Jazz, Lakers, Suns, Clippers.  Not sure any other team will get into this top 4 barring major injury

5-7 Blazers, Nuggets, and Spurs. 3 teams with just a .5 game separating them

8-10 Mavs, Warriors, Grizzlies. 

11-13 Pelicans, Kings, Thunder - Still in striking distance with so much of the season to go

Lottery bound - Rockets & T'Wolves

Kings have been dropping off of late.  Or did they pick up a win this week?  Thunder looking rough.  Pels on our heels. That’s about it.  

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15 hours ago, ALT GRIND said:

Kings have been dropping off of late.  Or did they pick up a win this week?  Thunder looking rough.  Pels on our heels. That’s about it.  

Us vs the Pels for the play in 

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Interesting that this has us slightly ahead of the Spurs in playoff odds,  since Spurs are currently 18-14 and we are 16-16. Love seeing the overrated Pels with only a 17% chance to make the top 10. 

 

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6 hours ago, The J Crew said:

Interesting that this has us slightly ahead of the Spurs in playoff odds,  since Spurs are currently 18-14 and we are 16-16. Love seeing the overrated Pels with only a 17% chance to make the top 10. 

 

ESPN and TNT execs will make a few phone call to the NBA officials to get these odds up a little bit.

I'm a little surprised at the Spurs odds because they have a bunch of easy games remaining, but that means they must also have a bunch of games against the very top tier teams remaining and according to tankathon, they have the 2nd highest remaining schedule (Houston #1).

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Could be some movement in the standings after games tonight as there is WC v WC games going on:

Five games: Hopefully 2 upsets in there.

T'Wolves v Pelicans - Should be Pelicans win, but they've disappointed before

Mavs v Thunder - Would like to see rested Thunder take down the Mavs

Warriors @ Clips - Clips win puts a .5 game between Grizzlies & Warriors

Suns @ Portland - I've resigned that Suns will finish above Grizzlies, but Portland can be caught

Rockets v Kings - I guess I'll cheer for Rockets to help finish off the Kings, and if the Kings are looking for a Buddy Hield trade partner?

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4 hours ago, Ole Dirty Klondike said:

 

 

I'm honestly surprised they didn't have this in place before the season started.

In this COVID19 season, why not just allow a bigger roster?

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Good results tonight for Grizz playoff seeding:

T'Wolves v Pelicans - Pelicans lost (check)

Mavs v Thunder - Mavs lost (check)

Warriors @ Clips - Warriors should lose (check)

Suns @ Portland - Portland lost (check)

Rockets v Kings - Kings won, but of all the games to not go our way, this is the one I'm OK with for now.

 

 

Grizzlies in 9th, closer to 5th place (2.5 games)  than they are 11th (3 games).

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6 hours ago, Grizzled Vet said:

I'm honestly surprised they didn't have this in place before the season started.

In this COVID19 season, why not just allow a bigger roster?

I guess with all the back and forth between owners and players regarding if and when restart the season (let alone the G-league season) the status of two-way players was very low in the list of priorities.

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