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NBA SUSPENDS SEASON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

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2 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

This is not the flu.  It's more like the SARS virus.  The fatality rate is roughly twenty times higher than the common flu.  It spreads fast, and it spreads easily, and we have no treatment or vaccine as of yet.  What makes things worse is that many of the infected don't show any signs of symptoms for at least a week and thus will walk around spreading it around... UNLESS, we practice social distancing and level out the curve of the spread so that our hospitals have a chance to keep up.

No

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3 hours ago, srmjr23 said:

No

No?  Obviously we're still learning more about this with every passing day, but the estimates I've seen are that the fatality rate is somewhere between 1.4% and 3.4% which, compared to the 0.1% fatality rate of the common flu, would make it somewhere between 14 and 34 times more deadly by my math.  The important thing to note is that wherever it falls on that spectrum, it's still significantly more deadly than the common flu.  So... what do you mean, "no?"

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4 hours ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

Oh gotcha.  I misread that.   Its the underlying health issues that cause to escalate so quickly.     Smokers are at extremely high risk because their lungs are already compromised.  Majority of cases where non-elderly die is because they are smokers. 

In China, 8 to 10% of the men over 70 who got the virus died. Only 2% of the women died. Why? Probably because 65% of older Chinese men smoke and very few women smoke.

45% of American men _and women_ over 45 years of age are obese.  In general, smoking and obesity are big risk factors for life threatening disease.

That info is about 4 minutes into this portion of a longer interview:

 

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12 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

This is not the flu.  It's more like the SARS virus.  The fatality rate is roughly twenty times higher than the common flu.  It spreads fast, and it spreads easily, and we have no treatment or vaccine as of yet.  What makes things worse is that many of the infected don't show any signs of symptoms for at least a week and thus will walk around spreading it around... UNLESS, we practice social distancing and level out the curve of the spread so that our hospitals have a chance to keep up.

Thanks, Bna - this is crucial to keep reminding ourselves.

11 hours ago, BigHunkALove said:

Its too early to be confident in determining the mortality rate, which appears to be roughly 2-3% in western population demographics, and is difficult to compare with influenza, since the denominator (the number of sero positive cases) is also difficult to determine, mostly due to testing often not being performed on those with "the flu" but certainly, the panic is spread by a current absence of anti viral therapy (like Tamiflu for influenza) and a current absence of a suitable vaccine to prevent infection

Also note that if we don't flatten the curve, the mortality rate will go up as there won't be enough hospital beds or ventilators. Healthcare professionals will have to start making decisions about who gets treatment in this scenario. It is imperative that we follow the social distancing guidelines and flatten the curve. The spread of this virus might be inevitable, but if we can slow the spread over a longer period of time we'll have a far better opportunity to manage it and lessen the impact than if we hit the peak soon with less immediate action.

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I believe we can forget this season being played at all. I am hearing predictions of 2 million fatalities from Covid19. 

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47 minutes ago, chipc3 said:

I believe we can forget this season being played at all. I am hearing predictions of 2 million fatalities from Covid19. 

It is still important to remember warmer countries such as those in Africa (which has a significant Chinese presence) are not being hit nearly as hard. There is still realistic hope that this doesnt transfer in warm weather at the same rate. 

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1 hour ago, chipc3 said:

I believe we can forget this season being played at all. I am hearing predictions of 2 million fatalities from Covid19. 

Not saying that can't happen, but for that to happen (at the same 3.4% fatality rate mentioned often) almost 59 million people need to be infected. We're only at 200k right now. 

And that's assuming the fatality rate stays that high, which it most likely will not. If it is only 1.4% then 142 million people need to be infected. Considering it's contained in China and hasn't really done anything in India, that seems very unlikely. 

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30 minutes ago, Dwash said:

It is still important to remember warmer countries such as those in Africa (which has a significant Chinese presence) are not being hit nearly as hard. There is still realistic hope that this doesnt transfer in warm weather at the same rate. 

Which provides us even more hope as we move into the summer months in North America/ northern hemisphere in general. By May, given rising temperatures, preventative measures, and potential vaccines or effective treatments at least, we could have this under control. 

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1 hour ago, Rdk4121 said:

Not saying that can't happen, but for that to happen (at the same 3.4% fatality rate mentioned often) almost 59 million people need to be infected. We're only at 200k right now. 

And that's assuming the fatality rate stays that high, which it most likely will not. If it is only 1.4% then 142 million people need to be infected. Considering it's contained in China and hasn't really done anything in India, that seems very unlikely. 

Yes with our no large groups mandate, summer heat and even full lockdown in some places like San Francisco if we even get to 2 million cases I would be suprised. Much less 2 million deaths.  Global warming maybe a positive this year. 

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10 hours ago, tangogriz said:

In China, 8 to 10% of the men over 70 who got the virus died. Only 2% of the women died. Why? Probably because 65% of older Chinese men smoke and very few women smoke.

45% of American men _and women_ over 45 years of age are obese.  In general, smoking and obesity are big risk factors for life threatening disease.

That info is about 4 minutes into this portion of a longer interview:

 

Thanks bud!  That was a great interview.

2 hours ago, Dwash said:

It is still important to remember warmer countries such as those in Africa (which has a significant Chinese presence) are not being hit nearly as hard. There is still realistic hope that this doesnt transfer in warm weather at the same rate. 

I've heard the same thing as well.  Getting fully past flu season will help tremendously. 

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1 hour ago, Dwash said:

Yes with our no large groups mandate, summer heat and even full lockdown in some places like San Francisco if we even get to 2 million cases I would be suprised. Much less 2 million deaths.  Global warming maybe a positive this year. 

In this case I am putting money on a Year Without Summer.

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2 hours ago, Rdk4121 said:

Not saying that can't happen, but for that to happen (at the same 3.4% fatality rate mentioned often) almost 59 million people need to be infected. We're only at 200k right now. 

And that's assuming the fatality rate stays that high, which it most likely will not. If it is only 1.4% then 142 million people need to be infected. Considering it's contained in China and hasn't really done anything in India, that seems very unlikely. 

You are misinformed. For decades our hospitals have been streamlined for financial reasons. At any given time our countries ICU's have been run at near capacity. A sudden need for ICU rooms due to coronavirus will mean triage, which in turn will mean more deaths, not only from coronavirus, but from injuries and disease that are usually treatable. If just 1% of any countries  population (including the U.S.) gets coronavirus, their hospitals will be overwhelmed.

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3 hours ago, Rdk4121 said:

Not saying that can't happen, but for that to happen (at the same 3.4% fatality rate mentioned often) almost 59 million people need to be infected. We're only at 200k right now. 

And that's assuming the fatality rate stays that high, which it most likely will not. If it is only 1.4% then 142 million people need to be infected. Considering it's contained in China and hasn't really done anything in India, that seems very unlikely. 

True that it’s a worse case scenario but most people haven’t been tested yet, few took the early warnings Seriously and it’s in all 50 states already.
 

The USA is seeing nearly 1,000 new cases a day right now according to www.worldometers.info/Coronavirus/ . It doesn’t seem to be contained and is actually increasing in numbers here. This isn’t China also where the government has far greater control over their people. 

I'm not a scientist and I don't pretend to know just how bad this could turn out being but everything I am hearing from people who should know is that the USA population has no idea how really bad this is. To close down all sports, colleges, businesses and to request national guardsmen and the military to "protect" (which I read to mean enforce) quarantine areas, tells me this is very serious and the NBA season is the least of the country's problems currently.   

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4 minutes ago, Father Pat said:

You are misinformed. For decades our hospitals have been streamlined for financial reasons. At any given time our countries ICU's have been run at near capacity. A sudden need for ICU rooms due to coronavirus will mean triage, which in turn will mean more deaths, not only from coronavirus, but from injuries and disease that are usually treatable. If just 1% of any countries  population (including the U.S.) gets coronavirus, their hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Talk about misinformed and apparently a distinct inability to read. The death rate is largely from Italy and China which have an 8.3% and 3.99% death rate respectively while also being the two most infected counties. Germany for instance has a .23% death rate, while the USA has a 1.5% death rate. 

We also most likely have far more cases than are confirmed as well, meaning that death rate is even lower. You quoted 1% of the nation would be overwhelming on the hospitals, which is 3.25 million people give or take. There's currently 7687 people infected, which is .0023% of the country. If the infection gets 10 times as bad here, that's only .023%, 100 times worse is still just .23%. We can get 422 times worse before we reach a breaking point according to your estimation. 

People are going to die for sure, and it's sad, but this is not the time to spread false information and fearmongering tactics. 

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The CoronaVirus or at least the CoronaVirus Hysteria can remain irrational longer than the NBA can remain solvent.

Discuss.

OR, we can get that Draft Thread back that Chip has been hiding for us.

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1 minute ago, ALT GRIND said:

The CoronaVirus or at least the CoronaVirus Hysteria can remain irrational longer than the NBA can remain solvent.

Discuss.

OR, we can get that Draft Thread back that Chip has been hiding for us.

I haven't hidden any of your draft threads. Maybe some other moderator did but not me. 

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1 minute ago, chipc3 said:

True that it’s a worse case scenario but most people haven’t been tested yet, few took the early warnings Seriously and it’s in all 50 states already.
 

The USA is seeing nearly 1,000 new cases a day right now according to www.worldometers.info/Coronavirus/ . It doesn’t seem to be contained and is actually increasing in numbers here. This isn’t China also where the government has far greater control over their people.

I agree with that for sure, it's tough, but we won't see the effects of any preventive measures for at least a few days to a week. If there's not at least a slight downturn in infected per day in a week, then there is obviously some cause for concern. 

The reason for optimism is if you are a reasonably healthy person under 60, you're likelihood of dying is no higher than the flu (.2% compared to .1%-.2% typically for the flu). 

It is very infectious, which is really the biggest cause for concern. The flu kills between 30-50k people a year in the USA alone, but that's by infecting 30-60 million people a year. It is imperative that we don't let covid infect that many people as 1.5% (our current death rate) on 60 million people is 900k people. That would be catastrophic, and that's absolute worst case in my mind. 

Obviously we're nowhere near that point right now, but a disease like this can and will grow exponentially the more people that get infected. 

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Draft sucks this year, and we ain't in it. I'm not worried about discussing that unless we talking about fun 2nd rounders. 

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7 minutes ago, Rdk4121 said:

Talk about misinformed and apparently a distinct inability to read. The death rate is largely from Italy and China which have an 8.3% and 3.99% death rate respectively while also being the two most infected counties. Germany for instance has a .23% death rate, while the USA has a 1.5% death rate. 

We also most likely have far more cases than are confirmed as well, meaning that death rate is even lower. You quoted 1% of the nation would be overwhelming on the hospitals, which is 3.25 million people give or take. There's currently 7687 people infected, which is .0023% of the country. If the infection gets 10 times as bad here, that's only .023%, 100 times worse is still just .23%. We can get 422 times worse before we reach a breaking point according to your estimation. 

People are going to die for sure, and it's sad, but this is not the time to spread false information and fearmongering tactics. 

Instead of lashing out like a child, try to engage your brain. You stated that "If it is only 1.4% (death rate) then 142 million people need to be infected." You are wrong because the death rate will climb with the number of ICU cases. There are only 100,000 ICU rooms in the U.S., most which are already occupied. There will be triage, like in Italy right now. Once the ICU rooms are full, hospitals can no longer treat patients properly. More will die. It isn't "fearmongering tactics" as you wrongly stated. It is BASIC MATH.

 

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Probably gonna fire up my 2022 QUADRUPLE DRAFT BIG BOARD tomorrow.  No later than this weekend.

I mean, OF COURSE, the CDC can force me to not post it.

BUT....

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the corona virus has been in the U.S. atleast since december 2019...most of the U.S. has already had it...and it didn't start in europe or china...it started here in good ole america...also it is a man made virus produce in North Korea (by Kim Jung-Un) ...when north korea was "testing" long range missiles they were not testing to see if the missiles would work they was test to see how effective you could spread diseases (chemical warfare) via rockets and the use of the earth natural jet streams.

North Korea kept its word:  https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/04/asia/north-korea-christmas-gift-kim-jong-un-intl-hnk/index.html

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15 minutes ago, Father Pat said:

Instead of lashing out like a child, try to engage your brain. You stated that "If it is only 1.4% (death rate) then 142 million people need to be infected." You are wrong because the death rate will climb with the number of ICU cases. There are only 100,000 ICU rooms in the U.S., most which are already occupied. There will be triage, like in Italy right now. Once the ICU rooms are full, hospitals can no longer treat patients properly. More will die. It isn't "fearmongering tactics" as you wrongly stated. It is BASIC MATH.

 

No it's not, Italy is a completely different story. Nearly a quarter of their population is over 70 years old. Explain Germany, explain, south Korea. Not everyone infected 1. needs ICU 2. Even needs hospitalization. 

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12 minutes ago, PutARingOnIt#GrizzFan said:

the corona virus has been in the U.S. atleast since december 2019...most of the U.S. has already had it...and it didn't start in europe or china...it started here in good ole america...also it is a man made virus produce in North Korea (by Kim Jung-Un) ...when north korea was "testing" long range missiles they were not testing to see if the missiles would work they was test to see how effective you could spread diseases (chemical warfare) via rockets and the use of the earth natural jet streams.

North Korea kept its word:  https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/04/asia/north-korea-christmas-gift-kim-jong-un-intl-hnk/index.html

I thought it was Bill Gates.

I am almost ... disappointed.

Another theory says that it was made by North CAROLINA.

#TarHeelVirus

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