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chipc3

CoronaVirus Effects

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The coronavirus is having a large impact around the world. I am wondering if anyone is considering not attending an NBA Game because they are afraid of catching the virus? If you don't live in Memphis are you doing anything to avoid contact with a large group of people? 

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My kids’ school is pretty much the only “large group of people” I interact with daily. and I’m afraid I can’t avoid it.

In other news, a case was just confirmed in the town where my kids’ school is. 😕

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A Euroleague game was played today in an empty arena as mandated by local authorities due to the ongoing outbreak in Northern Italy. I wonder if this kind of measures might be taken as well in the US if/when the number of cases increases.

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52 minutes ago, fanboyslim said:

Here’s one of the best summaries (according to epidemiologists) about the coronavirus situation. It’s technical but accessible and it’s updated frequently as new information appears.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/

Thanks for sharing!

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Yea thanks @Fanboy.   This site verifies what some doctors have been complaining about for weeks.   That we know very little about the virus and most of the information is suspect.  

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The above meme has zero credibility until you indicate who published it. Even then, it would still have zero credibility, since it was obviously created by someone with Trump Derangement Syndrome.

Where's the memes about China and WHO who initially said not to worry and that the virus was not transmissible from human to human? Where's the Pelosi meme where she got a big crowd to gather in San Fran's Chinatown in late February, and said don't worry everything is under control? 

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9 hours ago, GameOn said:

The above meme has zero credibility until you indicate who published it. Even then, it would still have zero credibility, since it was obviously created by someone with Trump Derangement Syndrome.

Where's the memes about China and WHO who initially said not to worry and that the virus was not transmissible from human to human? Where's the Pelosi meme where she got a big crowd to gather in San Fran's Chinatown in late February, and said don't worry everything is under control? 

The above meme is not visible to me. It could be a popup blocker issue.

Pelosi went to Chinatown to reassure folks about Asians, as the beatings go up when wingnuts look down. She went there on the same day that Trump made a speech saying the virus was completely under control in the US. He kept up with that bs for more than a month. Who was in a position to know the real facts? Who got the important briefings? Who said it was a hoax? Who was more concerned with the financial markets than the mom and pop markets?

You can watch videos of all his statements. It doesn't stop him from denying them. Do you know that during that month or so time period, for which Trump now claims that he knew that Covid-19 was a pandemic, that he played golf 6 times and held 9 rallies?

We're talking about the leader of the free world. Four years ago no one would believe this stuff could happen.

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On 2/25/2020 at 4:28 PM, chipc3 said:

The coronavirus is having a large impact around the world. I am wondering if anyone is considering not attending an NBA Game because they are afraid of catching the virus? If you don't live in Memphis are you doing anything to avoid contact with a large group of people? 

This was my original post back on Feb 25. There were very few posts about this (outside of Fanboy) until April. 

I think it is safe to say this has become a Black Swan event that no one could have foreseen or prepared for and anyone suggesting otherwise is fooling themselves. 

What is a Black Swan?

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • A black swan is an extremely rare event with severe consequences. It cannot be predicted beforehand, though many claim it should be predictable after the fact.
  • Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy, and because they cannot be predicted, can only be prepared for by building robust systems.
  • Reliance on standard forecasting tools can both fail to predict and potentially increase vulnerability to black swans by propagating risk and offering false security.

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10 hours ago, chipc3 said:

This was my original post back on Feb 25. There were very few posts about this (outside of Fanboy) until April. 

I think it is safe to say this has become a Black Swan event that no one could have foreseen or prepared for and anyone suggesting otherwise is fooling themselves. 

What is a Black Swan?

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • A black swan is an extremely rare event with severe consequences. It cannot be predicted beforehand, though many claim it should be predictable after the fact.
  • Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy, and because they cannot be predicted, can only be prepared for by building robust systems.
  • Reliance on standard forecasting tools can both fail to predict and potentially increase vulnerability to black swans by propagating risk and offering false security.

The guy who wrote the book says it is not a black swan event.

I don't know if you intend it, but this is used to give Trump cover, so thats what I'm responding to.

The impact is rare, but the probability of a major outbreak was predicted. Bush and Obama both made "when not if" speeches about pandemics.

During his first term Trump got rid of some scientists who were our eyes and ears to outbreaks. One was replaced by Jared Kushner.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/trump-fired-pandemic-response-jared-kushner-coronavirus.html

Quote

In May 2018, the top White House official who was focused on pandemic response departed the White House. “The top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic has left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw has been disbanded,”

Others were not replaced.

Exclusive: U.S. slashed CDC staff inside China prior to coronavirus outbreak

Exclusive: U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreak

The Trump folks were warned.

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-significant-but-is-it-a-true-black-swan-event-136675
 

Quote

 

Seven days before Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2017, his aides and out-going Obama administration officials were briefed on a table-top exercise that played through a fictitious outbreak of H9N2 — an influenza virus — with effects not unlike what we have seen with SARS-CoV-2.

Similarly, in 2019, the Trump administration’s own Department of Health and Human Services carried out a pandemic simulation tagged as “Crimson Contagion,” which played out a viral outbreak originating in China that could kill close to 600,000 people in the United States alone.

 

Some of Trump's own people sent out a warning in 2019.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/20/819186528/what-last-years-government-simulation-predicted-about-todays-pandemic
 

Quote

 

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Nobody knew there'd be a pandemic or an epidemic of this proportion. Nobody's ever seen anything like this before.

CHANG: Actually, not quite. You see, people inside the federal government predicted last year that the U.S. would be underfunded, underprepared and too disorganized to deal with a global pandemic.

 

Maybe one can spread the blame to other Presidents but Trump rightfully deserves most of it.

 

 

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I’m not going to defend the current President but to assume this was foreseeable is silly. I know there will be a 50% correction in the stock market some time In the future but it doesn’t mean I expect a President to be prepared for it. This disaster would have overwhelmed anyone in the White House regardless of party or personality.
 

If you hate Trump you will blame him for everything. If you love Trump you will blame China, the WHO, the CDC, etc. In my uneducated opinion (and I don’t pretend to be an expert on this) this would have overwhelmed any leader just as it has every other leader in the world. No one has emerged unscathed from this. 

Mistakes were made clearly but not from a lack of concern or desire to fix the problem. 
 

A black swan is an extremely rare event with severe consequences. It cannot be predicted beforehand, though many claim it should be predictable after the fact”

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You are confusing

the severe impact of the pandemic

with the  

predictability that a pandemic would occur.

The initial ignoring of the pandemic and the consequent severe repercussions go together.

I just gave you a few of the many examples of folks making the prediction. The two previous Presidents made the prediction.

About the severity, let me repeat one of the quotes:

Quote

Similarly, in 2019, the Trump administration’s own Department of Health and Human Services carried out a pandemic simulation tagged as “Crimson Contagion?,” which played out a viral outbreak originating in China that could kill close to 600,000 people in the United States alone.

The impact of a Crimson Contagion outbreak would be severe, probably like today.

Early public warning would have made a great difference. (I believe that Trump did receive private early warnings from the military and others.) He believed an early major response would hurt the economy. Ironic, huh. Publicity would have helped overcome that.

Here is a video that has a recent clip of Trump denying that he got rid of the pandemic specialists and also a clip from 2018 of Trump explaining why he got rid of the pandemic specialists.

This ain't rocket science or hater talk. Having the discarded specialist in place could have saved many lives and billions of dollars. It is reasonable to assume that the impact would have been much less severe if our leader had acted earlier. Trump is fighting to keep this quiet.

This leads to a very important question. Are Trump's current decisions motivated more by coverup than the best interests of his countrymen and, really, the world. We know that he continues to lie about the availability of testing. Why?

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Trump was asked about intelligence advisors warning him about the real possibility of a pandemic in January and February.

He doesn't deny it.

He goes on the attack about sleepy Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi "dancing" in the streets. He cherry picks what other official said.

He points to the leaky China travel ban as proof that he was doing his job, that he was doing more than playing golf and speaking at rallies of closely packed crowds.

And this final evasion:

Reporter: Were you getting warnings in your Presidential daily briefs?

Trump: I would have to check. I would have to look at the exact date of warnings.

This video contains several of his "under control" statements during time period. So its important to ask him if our intelligence agencies were privately telling him the same things that he was publicly telling the nation.

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On 5/1/2020 at 7:30 AM, chipc3 said:

I’m not going to defend the current President but to assume this was foreseeable is silly. I know there will be a 50% correction in the stock market some time In the future but it doesn’t mean I expect a President to be prepared for it. This disaster would have overwhelmed anyone in the White House regardless of party or personality.
 

If you hate Trump you will blame him for everything. If you love Trump you will blame China, the WHO, the CDC, etc. In my uneducated opinion (and I don’t pretend to be an expert on this) this would have overwhelmed any leader just as it has every other leader in the world. No one has emerged unscathed from this. 

Mistakes were made clearly but not from a lack of concern or desire to fix the problem. 
 

A black swan is an extremely rare event with severe consequences. It cannot be predicted beforehand, though many claim it should be predictable after the fact”

Point made......

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