Subliminal

So are Jaren and Dillon good yet?

Recommended Posts

Just now, I❤️JV said:

He's maybe not the best rebounder and is foul machine....but in the NBA you need 1 exceptional skill to be good...and he is very good (if he did not took bad shots could be even better) at 3 point line...He can be exceptional defender...but those fouls and anxiety not to get them messing with his head...IMO he improved from the beginning of the season....i feel next year he might break out...he has all the tools...just need to be better between the ears...stupid fouls are taken his confidence away...if/when he overcomes foul troubles he would be exceptional max contract player...

     

No one has claimed Jaren isn’t very good. The discussion has always been did he improve last offseason. I stood alone with that belief for a long time. Now a completely objective opinion from a large blog supports my statements and the only defense is “he’s very good”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, I❤️JV said:

He didn't improved on his fouls or rebounding, but he improved on volume and % of his 3 pointers...he did not improve everywhere..but the ugly 3 point shot is going in...he won't/can't improve his core strength in a middle of a season ...hope in a summer he spends pumping iron....and talking to sports psychologist daily.

So you agree he needs to work harder in the off-season if he wants to improve on his weaknesses and you expect him to do that this coming summer.

That’s been my position since the start of the season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His “upside” might be 22/8 with 2 blocks and a couple of assists a night which would be ideal for a 2nd option type in a deep core (Jonas and Dillon look like long-term pieces).  

If he can turn into the unicorn defender that many projected him to be I can see him going to several All Star Games.  Plus All Defensive teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, chipc3 said:

So you agree he needs to work harder in the off-season if he wants to improve on his weaknesses and you expect him to do that this coming summer.

That’s been my position since the start of the season. 

Yeah he needs to work in the summer,  hell the most established player can still use more work

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The thing is ... when we drafted Jaren, no one thought of him as a skilled offensive player and certainly not a 3-point threat.  He was drafted for potential and defensive ability (though he needed to quit fouling).

Personally I'm thrilled and surprised with him on the offensive end (based on pre-draft expectations).  Sure, there's room for improvement ... mainly on not getting silly tic-tac fouls and rebounding on defensive end.  Some of the rebounding (and a little of the foul) issue is because he is trying to block or alter shots so often that he's not in position defensively to rebound.  Hopefully he will learn soon ... he's got a good teammate to learn from in Brandon Clarke.  If Jaren just positioned himself better and raised arms straight up - he would alter a lot of shots and be in a better position to rebound (with a lot less energy wasted).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, chipc3 said:

This article says he has improved all his numbers across the board from last year

So this is not improvement?

"He played a total of 58 games last season, averaging 13.8 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks and 1.1 assists per game. This was good enough for Jackson to be named to the All-Rookie team.

This season Jackson has increased all of these numbers, averaging 18.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 assists per game."

The article says he has improved "but probably not as much as the Grizzlies would have liked."

It goes on to state the reasons this writer thinks why this is the case. They are all the reasons we have already stated, new PG - A rookie on top of that, a new scheme, new coach, playing for the first real time heavy minutes alongside Jonas etc etc

How does this writer know what the Grizzlies would have liked? We would all like to have been 42-0 RIGHT NOW, but some of us face reality. If you exclude Oct and Nov where are we at?

Are you really so entrenched in your view that you are blinded by this, and everything we have said, and the countless articles on GBB, SN, and pretty much all opposing team's game commentators?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone, with the exception of Iguoadiva, Bruno and Guduric - 3 guys that have either not played at all, or barely played, has improved.

Dillon has improved out of sight currently.

I was saying in Oct and Nov that Dillon had not improved. After his performances in Dec and Jan, I am happy to say he has shown massive improvement, and genuinely glad for him and the team.

Why cant you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has JJJ improved from last season? Yes. So he's progressing just fine with plenty of room for improvement

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Funny how Chip is dodging this issue.

We said we'd evaluate Jaren at ASB, and compare his stats from last season.

Chip stated the criteria for Jaren's evaluation.

I posted the comparisons in the Taylor Jenkins thread.

No response.

For someone who had a lot to say on this issue before, it's pretty surprising its deafening silence now.

Or maybe it's not so surprising.......

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, BigHunkALove said:

Funny how Chip is dodging this issue.

We said we'd evaluate Jaren at ASB, and compare his stats from last season.

Chip stated the criteria for Jaren's evaluation.

I posted the comparisons in the Taylor Jenkins thread.

No response.

For someone who had a lot to say on this issue before, it's pretty surprising its deafening silence now.

Or maybe it's not so surprising.......

 

 

 

Actually I said I would refrain from talking about JJJ's numbers until the end of the season per popular request but since you insist let's have a serious conversation. I have no idea how this will work out now but let's proceed. 

If you remember I was talking about his conditioning and work in the off-season being subpar and it showing at the start of the season. Some fans were justifiably upset about my opinion as they don't like anyone criticizing him. However, as the season progressed his play did improve. The extended time requested therefore helped him look better. Let's see how much.  

JJJ's minutes are up this season. That inflates many other stats simply by his being on the court longer. You posted his absolute numbers and we appreciate that. Let's look at his per minute contributions to see if he is actually contributing more when he is on the court or not. 

JJJ's rookie season he contributed the following per minute stats:
Scoring - 0.529 per minute
Shot Attempts - 0.39 per minute
FG% - 50.6% (unchanged by MPG)
3PT% - 35.9% (Also unchanged by MPG)
3PTA - 0.09 per minute
3PTM - 0.03 per minute
FTA - 0.13 per minute
FTM - 0.10 per minute
RPM - 0.18 per minute
APM - 0.042 per minute
BPM - 0.054 per minute
STL - 0.034 per minute
TO - 0.065 per minute
Fouls - 0.146 per minute

This season JJJ"s numbers are:
Scoring - 0.609 per minute
Shot Attempts - 0.47 per minute
FG% - 46.8%
3PT% - 39.7%
3PTA - 0.224 per minute
3PTM - 0.09 per minute
FTA - 0.11 per minute
FTM - 0.08 per minute
RPM - 0.17 per minute
APM - 0.05 per minute
BPM - 0.06 per minute
STL - 0.025 per minute
TO - 0.146 per minute
Fouls - 0.145 per minute

So if we look at the numbers JJJ is shooting a lot more 3 point shots and making a lot more as well. Otherwise everything is basically the same as last season. He is shooting a lower FG% because he is taking more threes which while resulting in a lower percentage also equates to more points. His free throw attempts are down because he is shooting more threes as well (and he is making a higher percentage which means his scoring is more efficient I believe).

His rebounds are a statistical match (0.18 as a rookie to 0.17 this season). His assists are as well (0.04 vs 0.05) Considering the faster pace the team is playing resulting in greater opportunities for rebounds and assists this is actually slightly discouraging. His blocks are improved but again going from 0.054 to 0.060 can be explained by the increased pace the team is playing and not so much by any great improvement. His turnovers have risen as well but can be explained by the faster pace although the difference is somewhat larger (0.065 to 0.146). 

When I look at these numbers I see a young player benefiting from extended minutes (mostly at C since the team didn't have a backup C for the majority of the season to date) and improved three point shooting with improved opportunity to shoot from there. Otherwise I don't see much improvement at all. 



 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, chipc3 said:

Actually I said I would refrain from talking about JJJ's numbers until the end of the season per popular request but since you insist let's have a serious conversation. I have no idea how this will work out now but let's proceed. 

If you remember I was talking about his conditioning and work in the off-season being subpar and it showing at the start of the season. Some fans were justifiably upset about my opinion as they don't like anyone criticizing him. However, as the season progressed his play did improve. The extended time requested therefore helped him look better. Let's see how much.  

JJJ's minutes are up this season. That inflates many other stats simply by his being on the court longer. You posted his absolute numbers and we appreciate that. Let's look at his per minute contributions to see if he is actually contributing more when he is on the court or not. 

JJJ's rookie season he contributed the following per minute stats:
Scoring - 0.529 per minute
Shot Attempts - 0.39 per minute
FG% - 50.6% (unchanged by MPG)
3PT% - 35.9% (Also unchanged by MPG)
3PTA - 0.09 per minute
3PTM - 0.03 per minute
FTA - 0.13 per minute
FTM - 0.10 per minute
RPM - 0.18 per minute
APM - 0.042 per minute
BPM - 0.054 per minute
STL - 0.034 per minute
TO - 0.065 per minute
Fouls - 0.146 per minute

This season JJJ"s numbers are:
Scoring - 0.609 per minute
Shot Attempts - 0.47 per minute
FG% - 46.8%
3PT% - 39.7%
3PTA - 0.224 per minute
3PTM - 0.09 per minute
FTA - 0.11 per minute
FTM - 0.08 per minute
RPM - 0.17 per minute
APM - 0.05 per minute
BPM - 0.06 per minute
STL - 0.025 per minute
TO - 0.146 per minute
Fouls - 0.145 per minute

So if we look at the numbers JJJ is shooting a lot more 3 point shots and making a lot more as well. Otherwise everything is basically the same as last season. He is shooting a lower FG% because he is taking more threes which while resulting in a lower percentage also equates to more points. His free throw attempts are down because he is shooting more threes as well (and he is making a higher percentage which means his scoring is more efficient I believe).

His rebounds are a statistical match (0.18 as a rookie to 0.17 this season). His assists are as well (0.04 vs 0.05) Considering the faster pace the team is playing resulting in greater opportunities for rebounds and assists this is actually slightly discouraging. His blocks are improved but again going from 0.054 to 0.060 can be explained by the increased pace the team is playing and not so much by any great improvement. His turnovers have risen as well but can be explained by the faster pace although the difference is somewhat larger (0.065 to 0.146). 

When I look at these numbers I see a young player benefiting from extended minutes (mostly at C since the team didn't have a backup C for the majority of the season to date) and improved three point shooting with improved opportunity to shoot from there. Otherwise I don't see much improvement at all. 



 

That was not really the case.  It was your ASSUMPTION that he didn't work on his game and constantly referring to him unnecessarily going to basketball camps when the organization posted on their website that he was the face of the Grizzlies' youth basketball program.  Unless you were privy to Jaren's workout schedule, I don't think you can really know how much effort he put in.  As someone pointed out to you, the results of working on your game may not immediately manifest itself.

Also, you refused to take into account that this was an entirely new team with a brand new coach and a brand new style of play.  The only player on the team who played any serious minutes with Jaren last season was Kyle, and he had been moved to the bench.

That being said, your statistical analysis doesn't show much improvement, admittedly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, smit-tay griz said:

That was not really the case.  It was your ASSUMPTION that he didn't work on his game and constantly referring to him unnecessarily going to basketball camps when the organization posted on their website that he was the face of the Grizzlies' youth basketball program.  Unless you were privy to Jaren's workout schedule, I don't think you can really know how much effort he put in.  As someone pointed out to you, the results of working on your game may not immediately manifest itself.

Also, you refused to take into account that this was an entirely new team with a brand new coach and a brand new style of play.  The only player on the team who played any serious minutes with Jaren last season was Kyle, and he had been moved to the bench.

That being said, your statistical analysis doesn't show much improvement, admittedly.

My point was he didn't work enough on improving his game. I believe the statistics show that his game hasn't improved outside of taking more three point attempts and making a ton more of the attempts he takes.

I said he should have worked harder on the weak areas of his game and I expect he will this coming off season (something people conveniently ignore). Only time will tell if I am correct or not.

Whether or not I was privy to his workouts, the appearance was and has continued to be that he didn't work on the weak areas of his game and the only thing people can point to is minimal (outside of improving his 3 point shooting) and easily discarded when you factor in his greater minutes and the team's faster pace. In fact, if one wanted to be really critical, it could easily be argued that without the increased minutes his game in certain areas has declined from last season. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, chipc3 said:

My point was he didn't work enough on improving his game. I believe the statistics show that his game hasn't improved outside of taking more three point attempts and making a ton more of the attempts he takes.

I said he should have worked harder on the weak areas of his game and I expect he will this coming off season (something people conveniently ignore). Only time will tell if I am correct or not.

Whether or not I was privy to his workouts, the appearance was and has continued to be that he didn't work on the weak areas of his game and the only thing people can point to is minimal (outside of improving his 3 point shooting) and easily discarded when you factor in his greater minutes and the team's faster pace. In fact, if one wanted to be really critical, it could easily be argued that without the increased minutes his game in certain areas has declined from last season. 

 

There is a lot of hard truth in there.  After looking at his win shares per 48 it has actually gone down a little bit, which is puzzling, because the team is winning at a higher rate this season.  I would have expected the opposite.

I think we should revisit this thread at the end of the season.  I hope he does work extra hard on the weak ares this offseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, smit-tay griz said:

There is a lot of hard truth in there.  After looking at his win shares per 48 it has actually gone down a little bit, which is puzzling, because the team is winning at a higher rate this season.  I would have expected the opposite.

I think we should revisit this thread at the end of the season.  I hope he does work extra hard on the weak ares this offseason.

The WIN Shares dropping is what first clued me in that something was wrong. However his PER hasn't shown a tremendous issue (16.43). That's slightly above the league norm. Last season his PER was 16.43 however which suggest no improvement in his overall game.

His WP48 from last season was +0.039. This season it is -0.095. That's much worse. His Win Shares at Basketballreference.com is 3.0 this season while his career average is 6.3. That means he has hurt his career average this season. 

But I don't want to berate JJJ. In my opinion he didn't work hard at improving his game in the off-season and the stats almost across the board support my belief at this point in the season. Perhaps the 2nd half of the season he'll improve and we will not need to discuss this again. I am sure everyone would be happiest with that outcome. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, I❤️JV said:

Yeah. I found that right after I posted the comment so I edited it to reflect what I found. 

Seems like another example that JJJ hasn't improved this season. 

His per 36 minutes numbers from each season is interesting to look at as well. Of course JJJ never averaged 36 minutes a game in either season (so far) but comparing the numbers like that give a great view of his improvement or lack thereof. 

Below the 36 Min stats is per 100 possessions and he offensive rating has risen from 108 to 109 but his defensive rating has dropped to 110 from 107 (lower is better on defense, higher is better on offense). So I suppose if you only look at the offensive side of the court you can say he has improved but if you look at the defensive end along with the offensive side you see he hasn't really improved at all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Geez y’all let him just try to figure it out. These analytics are a bunch of horseradish 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Subliminal said:

Gonna wear my trey j jersey today just to flex on the haterz

Image result for laughing gif

And I want to reiterate I don't hate JJJ. I want him to be the best he can be and not settle for simply what his genes have given him. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, chipc3 said:

Image result for laughing gif

And I want to reiterate I don't hate JJJ. I want him to be the best he can be and not settle for simply what his genes have given him. 

You’re hard on him bc you love him so **** much. Trust me I get it I have a few relationships like that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/20/2020 at 3:55 PM, pjs said:

The thing is ... when we drafted Jaren, no one thought of him as a skilled offensive player and certainly not a 3-point threat.  He was drafted for potential and defensive ability (though he needed to quit fouling).

Personally I'm thrilled and surprised with him on the offensive end (based on pre-draft expectations).  Sure, there's room for improvement ... mainly on not getting silly tic-tac fouls and rebounding on defensive end.  Some of the rebounding (and a little of the foul) issue is because he is trying to block or alter shots so often that he's not in position defensively to rebound.  Hopefully he will learn soon ... he's got a good teammate to learn from in Brandon Clarke.  If Jaren just positioned himself better and raised arms straight up - he would alter a lot of shots and be in a better position to rebound (with a lot less energy wasted).

The offensive side of him has been an awesome surprise 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Subliminal said:

Gonna wear my trey j jersey today just to flex on the haterz

he is a really really good player.

Since he seems to like that stat category, I wonder if Chip can tell us what Trae's win shares are this season?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, BigHunkALove said:

he is a really really good player.

Since he seems to like that stat category, I wonder if Chip can tell us what Trae's win shares are this season?

Trae Young's Win Share is 5.1 this season. His WP48 is .0178. His PER is 24.42. What does this have to do with anything? But since you brought him up his minutes, scoring, FG%, 3pt%, FT%, rebounds, assists, steals, fouls and turnovers are all up as well. His blocks (.02 to .01) are down and his fouls are unchanged from last season.  

I also didn't bring up that statistic. That came from Smit-tay Grizz not me. I just responded with the other stats. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, I❤️JV said:

I think Trae is overrated...much happier with Ja 

I never said anything about Trae. I just quoted his stats when BigHunkALove asked me for them becAuse he was too lazy to look them up himself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now