Grizzled Vet

The overly optimistic, highly unlikely 19-20 playoff thread

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12 minutes ago, Dwash said:

Celtics looking at pick 17 in a weak draft. Must be sick. 

They gave up Jeff Green for the pick. They are getting good value. 

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Just now, Teddy.B said:

They gave up Jeff Green for the pick. They are getting good value. 

Maybe. Not a guarantee that a #17 pick even becomes as good as Jeff Green. Its not the 2021 unprotected lottery in a stack draft that they forecasted. 

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I suspect whether we make the playoffs will depend on our performance against N.O at the end of the month back-to-back. If we can just split, it could be enough if we go just below .500

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Thank you Cleveland and Toronto!  The Spurs are reeling right now... probably going to get past by Phoenix soon...

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5 hours ago, Grizzled Vet said:

 

I can't believe 538 still has Pelicans at 60% chance to make playoffs and Grizz at less than 20.

 

They have two types of forecasts. The player-based forecast, which is based on their player projections (how they expect players to perform based on similar players) and doesn’t account for wins and losses, gives the Pelicans a 62% chance of making the playoffs. The ELO forecast, which is the traditional way of making end of season projections, gives us a 60% chance.

Now I don’t give this type of forecasts a lot of weight, but if two systems applied by the same organization provide so wildly different results I would say the science behind them is very thin to say the least.

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1 hour ago, fanboyslim said:

They have two types of forecasts. The player-based forecast, which is based on their player projections (how they expect players to perform based on similar players) and doesn’t account for wins and losses, gives the Pelicans a 62% chance of making the playoffs. The ELO forecast, which is the traditional way of making end of season projections, gives us a 60% chance.

Now I don’t give this type of forecasts a lot of weight, but if two systems applied by the same organization provide so wildly different results I would say the science behind them is very thin to say the least.

ESPN Yahoo Fox Sports all want the Pelicans in the playoffs.

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1 hour ago, grizzgolf said:

ESPN Yahoo Fox Sports all want the Pelicans in the playoffs.

And the odd thing is according to them, the Pels would be a tougher PO matchup. The Pels have a weak bench and if their starters aren’t all firing, they will get swept. The strength of our bench, if everyone is healthy, makes us a peskier first round opponent for the Lakers.

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4 hours ago, grizz1016 said:

And the odd thing is according to them, the Pels would be a tougher PO matchup. The Pels have a weak bench and if their starters aren’t all firing, they will get swept. The strength of our bench, if everyone is healthy, makes us a peskier first round opponent for the Lakers.

I agree.  Plus Zion is really bad defensively and that is starting to get exploited.    Fully healthy we are clearly the better matchup.  

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ESPN gives us the highest chance of making the playoffs:

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28846268/the-high-stakes-race-west-no-8-seed

Quote

Memphis Grizzlies

Basketball Power Index Playoff Odds: 39.0% | FiveThirtyEight Odds: 18%

Why they'll make it: The Grizzlies have a 4-game cushion over the current ninth-place Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicansfor the West's final seed. Ja Morant is the rare rookie who tends to rise to the moment -- and reinforcements will arrive soon for Memphis. Power forward Jaren Jackson Jr. is likely to return from a sprained knee this week. Small forward Justise Winslow, acquired at the deadline but sidelined by a back injury, is making progress toward a Memphis debut. Winslow has done contact work in practice and wrapped up his pregame workout Friday night with an eyebrow-raising windmill dunk. Rookie forward Brandon Clarke (quadriceps) is a little further away but expected to return during the regular season.

Why they won't make it: Memphis has the most difficult remaining schedule in the league, according to BPI. The Grizzlies are extremely inexperienced after moving veterans Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill in the trade for Winslow -- never mind the playoffs, their three leading scorers don't have any meaningful late-regular-season experience. Winslow is a wild card. And while Winslow could help, it wouldn't be surprising if a young player who has been hurt most of the season initially struggles in a new system.

What's at stake: They've greatly exceeded expectations just by having a chance to compete for a playoff spot so early in the franchise's rebuilding process. The big question about Memphis coming into the season was whether the Grizzlies would be bad enough to keep the top-six-protected pick they owe Boston, not whether they'd be one of the West's top eight teams. It's all house money from here. At minimum, Memphis' talented young core and first-year coach Taylor Jenkins get an invaluable developmental opportunity after earning the chance to play in March and April games that really matter.

-- Tim MacMahon

Note what they say about Winslow’s return. 

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12 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

Thank you Cleveland and Toronto!  The Spurs are reeling right now... probably going to get past by Phoenix soon...

That Cleveland loss by the Spurs could be costly.

I want the Spurs to stay in this playoff race longer.  If they are eliminated too soon, that's not good as they have 3 games remaining with the Pelicans and a pair with Sacramento.

 

Knowing Pop, I could see him throwing in the towel early and ending up at 29-53 now (currently sit at 26-36).

 

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Really bad loss today. We will have to get  at least one on the next 3 road games to help. But playing Portland, Utah and SA is not easy. Can we ask some help from Mike 😁

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That was the last “easy” game before the 17-game stretch I’ve been worried about. Don’t think we have enough of a cushion to overcome the schedule and we’ll likely be overtaken, but even having meaningful games down the stretch will be valuable to the young guys.  

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6 hours ago, FrenchGrizzlies said:

Really bad loss today. We will have to get  at least one on the next 3 road games to help. But playing Portland, Utah and SA is not easy. Can we ask some help from Mike 😁

I actually think the Utah game may be the most winnable of the 3.

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4 minutes ago, CarloJ63 said:

I actually think the Utah game may be the most winnable of the 3.

Could be yes. Will also depend on SA position in 3 games. If they still can go into PO, they will make it tough for sure. If not it could help. For me the key is the return of JJJ and Justise. The current do their best but it will not be enough.

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4 hours ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

I fully expect us to beat a team or teams they aren't favored against.  Especially once Jaren returns.  

 

The problem is this young team is trying to infuse more players back into the lineup, including new guy Winslow.

It seems like every time this team is disrupted by lineup changes, it takes multiple games to get back on track.

 

But it is crazy that this team in the last few games loses to Kings and Magic, and beat the Lakers

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12 minutes ago, Grizzled Vet said:

 

The problem is this young team is trying to infuse more players back into the lineup, including new guy Winslow.

It seems like every time this team is disrupted by lineup changes, it takes multiple games to get back on track.

 

But it is crazy that this team in the last few games loses to Kings and Magic, and beat the Lakers

Kings and Magic have been good lately tho.  We just have to remember we are on the same tier with them as currently constructed.   Once Jaren gets back that will slightly boost us above them.    They aren't bad teams. 

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11 hours ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

I fully expect us to beat a team or teams they aren't favored against.  Especially once Jaren returns.  

Jaren will be fully healthy in 3 years. Let’s postpone the season until then.

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