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TimBC

Maybe NBA shooting is just weird

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So Ben McLemore comes to Memphis, and we hope he can shoot threes. He shoots blanks. 

He goes to two other teams. This year he's at HOU, 33.3% shooting and 29.1% from deep. 

Tonight he goes 9/14, of which 6/11 from deep. 

OK, Harden was 16-24 in 30 minutes, vs ATL who are about as good as we are ... but still. 

If Ben can go 6/11 from deep, the man can shoot. 

So can Grayson Allen, and a lot of guys who've played for us. 

Players of the game, is shooting really such a soap bubble, one day you've got it and the next day it's just not there (unless you're Steph Curry) ?

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13 minutes ago, TimBC said:

So Ben McLemore comes to Memphis, and we hope he can shoot threes. He shoots blanks. 

He goes to two other teams. This year he's at HOU, 33.3% shooting and 29.1% from deep. 

Tonight he goes 9/14, of which 6/11 from deep. 

OK, Harden was 16-24 in 30 minutes, vs ATL who are about as good as we are ... but still. 

If Ben can go 6/11 from deep, the man can shoot. 

So can Grayson Allen, and a lot of guys who've played for us. 

Players of the game, is shooting really such a soap bubble, one day you've got it and the next day it's just not there (unless you're Steph Curry) ?

They're averages. You shoot 5-10 one game and 2-10 the next and you still shoot 35%. Steph doesn't shoot 40% every night. There are nights he goes bananas and other nights he goes 2-7 from three. The longer the sample size, the more accurate the percentages become. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. McClemore had a good/few good games, but he'll regress back to his mean. 

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not quite simple math though. everyone has a chance at going 0-4 or 2-7 but as you get into higher percentages (average or long-term) the lesser shooters fall away quickly. Except Brandon Clarke!!!

It can also be distorted if a guy’s shooting 70% on volume but then gets double-teamed for the next 10 games and goes 1-4.

I’d like to see an analysis of how rare it is to go 6-11 from deep after averaging 29% all season. 

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1 hour ago, TimBC said:

not quite simple math though. everyone has a chance at going 0-4 or 2-7 but as you get into higher percentages (average or long-term) the lesser shooters fall away quickly. Except Brandon Clarke!!!

It can also be distorted if a guy’s shooting 70% on volume but then gets double-teamed for the next 10 games and goes 1-4.

I’d like to see an analysis of how rare it is to go 6-11 from deep after averaging 29% all season. 

Answer is ~5%

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3 point shooting is streaky, even for the best shooters apparently it takes 750 attempts to level out so for most guys even a season average isn't necessarily indicative of actual 3 point shooting. That's why when analysing draft prospects FT shooting is often given higher weighting than 3point as it supposedly tells you more. 

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6 hours ago, TimBC said:

So Ben McLemore comes to Memphis, and we hope he can shoot threes. He shoots blanks. 

He goes to two other teams. This year he's at HOU, 33.3% shooting and 29.1% from deep. 

Tonight he goes 9/14, of which 6/11 from deep. 

OK, Harden was 16-24 in 30 minutes, vs ATL who are about as good as we are ... but still. 

If Ben can go 6/11 from deep, the man can shoot. 

So can Grayson Allen, and a lot of guys who've played for us. 

Players of the game, is shooting really such a soap bubble, one day you've got it and the next day it's just not there (unless you're Steph Curry) ?

Yeah I saw that, but if you look at his figures for the whole season he is shooting 3s at around 29-30%

The two I Iook at are TJ Warren who was basically given away for nothing, and Terrence Davis who went undrafted out of Ole Miss, I wanted him for the Hustle, now he is in the main rotation in Toronto, and doing real well.

While we got....well....Allen....and uh...Guduric.....and...um...hey, we got Dillon Brooks! Whom we refused to trade for Kelly Oubre! 

And instead of Warren, we got an absolute bargain getting his teammate Josh Jackson, who is currently ripping it up in the G-League!

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And somehow, too, any player shooting 15% can be traded and end up at 40% with the new team. Unless the new team is us.

Wesley Person, if I recall, and mostly Courtney Lee, actually performed pretty much as expected when they came here. Then there was super-gunner Casey Jacobson, shudder.   

 

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