Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

MemphisX

2009 Free Agency

Recommended Posts

i agree with chad ford that our chance of getting boozer are zero....

 

i'm big on signing milsap to an offer sheet.....even if it gets matched.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I've had Boozer and Millsap as my 1 & 2 for awhile now. With Boozer's injuries appearing again, I'm ready to move Millsap to 1 and Boozer to 2. And we could get him for half the price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What are you guys scenarios if Boozer opts out and signs with another team, then Utah re-signs Millsap? We also would end up with pick no.8 or 9 in the lottery. As much as I want us to bring in Millsap or Boozer, I just think this is the most likely scenario due to the Grizzlies unfortunate luck.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I am anticipating us drafting our PF of the future (regardless of where we pick) thus allowing us to say Boozer/Millsap/whoever will be deemed a unneeded waste of resources. We will then sign or trade for a SG and/or a SF.

 

So get ready to convince yourself that Jordan Hill is going to be the next great PF and the 3rd of our Big 3. :lol:

 

Seriously, I would just as soon get Brandan Wright away from Golden State to go with Gay and Mayo. I think he is going to be an impact PF. IMO he is better than LaMarcus Aldridge and probably the easiest PF for us to obtain.

 

G Lowry, StepheCurry

G Mayo, Belinelli

SF Gay, Josh Childress

PF Wright, Arthur

C Anderson Varejao, Gasol

 

Dreamcast lineups are fun!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What are you guys scenarios if Boozer opts out and signs with another team, then Utah re-signs Millsap? We also would end up with pick no.8 or 9 in the lottery. As much as I want us to bring in Millsap or Boozer, I just think this is the most likely scenario due to the Grizzlies unfortunate luck.

Then you save your money and get ready for the salary dumping during the 2009-10 season and the 2010 free agency while we keep growing as a team, we are not exactly in a hurry, the better we get, the more attractive we are for FAs and veterans. As things look to be, we are not looking for a first option anymore (fingers crossed with Mayo's development), a #9 pick can land you a pretty nice player (or not), and we don't exactly need a superstar in the FA market, sure, Amare would be great, so would Bosh, but a Josh Smith would work really good here.

 

Capspace is not just for the FAs, you can get some good players from salary dumping teams that plan rebuilding, and hey, we have young players (and will keep adding them via draft) and we have tradeable picks, so it won't be the end of the world if we can't land a big FA this summer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't know, but if they resign them all they will go to 80-85 or more million, that's 13-18 or more million over the luxury tax treshold for at least two years (Brewer will take a big part of Harpring's expring contract). They could try to dump Kirilenko, staying just at the luxury tax, or they could just let Boozer walk, they could look at it as saving around 70 million in two years, and all in all, they are still a wingman away from real contention.

 

Plus, Okur will be a FA in 2010, that's a postseason with a ton of teams with a ton of capspace, not all of them will land Lebron, Amare, Wade and the likes, some will be upset, and that means overpaying, and skilled big men are the ones that get overpaid the most. So Okur will expect a raise, and they risk losing him if they don't give it to him, and if they had paid for Boozer and Milsap just to see a key piece run away the next year...

 

According to Hoopshype and ESPN, Okur has a player option this year. It would make no sense for him not to go ahead and opted out so Utah can pay him more, or someone else will.

 

I think Okur probably wants to stay in Utah and the feeling's probably mutual. I think a 5 year, $55 million is probably reasonable for them to give him.

 

Boozer is going to be maxed out.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Amare would be great, so would Bosh, but a Josh Smith Paul Millsap would work really good here.

 

Capspace is not just for the FAs, you can get some good players from salary dumping teams that plan rebuilding, and hey, we have young players (and will keep adding them via draft) and we have tradeable picks, so it won't be the end of the world if we can't land a big FA this summer.

 

The general thing about trading for a good player from a rebuilding team is they probably aren't worth the money if they couldn't help their original team. Now some guys can hit the spot, like Bonzi for us in 2004, but generally its the 2nd and 3rd tier guys that are underpaid to begin with that are the good deals. Unless you get a once every five years deal like Garnett or Rasheed Wallace, you'd be better served getting a third All-Star quality player (hopefully in the draft), and using that room to pay our guys and sign role players. You need to find Poseys and Rajas, instead of going for the Boozers or Boshs.

 

That's why Paul Millsap would be perfect. If Boozer wants to stay in Utah, how do the Jazz not pay him? Would fans understand? The best thing for us is for Okur not to opt-out. Then it'll probably come down to can we pay both Boozer or Millsap or will one have to walk. If we overpaid Millsap (giving him the deal we offered Josh Smith), and Conley continued his improvement, how could we not believe we have a team that should be a contender? You run the pick and roll with Conley and Millsap, and you let Mayo and Gay do their thing, and you are consistent defense and role players away from a team that would be contending for championships within five years.

 

Or am I looking their Beale St. Blue tinted glasses?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
According to Hoopshype and ESPN, Okur has a player option this year. It would make no sense for him not to go ahead and opted out so Utah can pay him more, or someone else will.

 

I think Okur probably wants to stay in Utah and the feeling's probably mutual. I think a 5 year, $55 million is probably reasonable for them to give him.

 

Boozer is going to be maxed out.

It depends, Boozer is a clear max or at least close to the max. But Okur could even end up losing money because of the lack of demand. If he opts out he would be seeking at least 10 million IMO, that leaves Detroit, Memphis, Miami and OKC as bidders, maybe Atlanta and Portland but that's a long shot. Okur is 29, going for 30 next season, that leaves OKC and Memphis out, probably Miami too but who knows. So he would be relaying on Detroit willing to spend their money on him instead of waiting for the 2010 or going for Boozer. So if Detroit shows no interest Utah could lowball him a little, he would take guaranteed money, but at a lower rate than before.

 

However, 2010 is the perfect field for getting overpaid. Tons of teams with tons of capspace, tons of potential upset teams willing to make the best possible addition to their roster, and there you have a skilled big man.

 

But like you said, if they both are on the same terms (his agent will know), he will opt out and resign. But there is some risk to it because of the lack of demand.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Paul Millsap might be as good as Carlos Boozer, but close enough.

 

Carlos Boozer stats before the big contract:

 

22 Years old / 34.6 minutes a game / 15.5 points / 52.3% FG / 11.4 Rebounds / 1 Steal / .7 blks

 

Millsap stats this year

 

23 years old / 30.7 minutes a game / 14.5 points / 55.6% FG / 8.8 Rebounds / 1 steal / 1.1 blks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It depends, Boozer is a clear max or at least close to the max. But Okur could even end up losing money because of the lack of demand. If he opts out he would be seeking at least 10 million IMO, that leaves Detroit, Memphis, Miami and OKC as bidders, maybe Atlanta and Portland but that's a long shot. Okur is 29, going for 30 next season, that leaves OKC and Memphis out, probably Miami too but who knows. So he would be relaying on Detroit willing to spend their money on him instead of waiting for the 2010 or going for Boozer. So if Detroit shows no interest Utah could lowball him a little, he would take guaranteed money, but at a lower rate than before.

 

However, 2010 is the perfect field for getting overpaid. Tons of teams with tons of capspace, tons of potential upset teams willing to make the best possible addition to their roster, and there you have a skilled big man.

 

But like you said, if they both are on the same terms (his agent will know), he will opt out and resign. But there is some risk to it because of the lack of demand.

 

But there is a lot of risk waiting to 2010. He could have a bad season, and if he wants to stay in Utah, and they decide to pay Millsap and Boozer, he could be the odd man out. He might take a cut for long term stability. Remember how significant the ages 29 and 30 were for Eric Dampier? I would think it has to be in Okur's agent's mind too.

 

Utah's owner has come out against Boozer for publicly stating he is opting out. It is good for us because if Utah has to choose, we'd probably be in position to pounce. I will say I don't think we need to sign Boozer to a max deal. But Millsap would hit the spot with a 60% of a max deal.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The general thing about trading for a good player from a rebuilding team is they probably aren't worth the money if they couldn't help their original team. Now some guys can hit the spot, like Bonzi for us in 2004, but generally its the 2nd and 3rd tier guys that are underpaid to begin with that are the good deals. Unless you get a once every five years deal like Garnett or Rasheed Wallace, you'd be better served getting a third All-Star quality player (hopefully in the draft), and using that room to pay our guys and sign role players. You need to find Poseys and Rajas, instead of going for the Boozers or Boshs.

 

That's why Paul Millsap would be perfect. If Boozer wants to stay in Utah, how do the Jazz not pay him? Would fans understand? The best thing for us is for Okur not to opt-out. Then it'll probably come down to can we pay both Boozer or Millsap or will one have to walk. If we overpaid Millsap (giving him the deal we offered Josh Smith), and Conley continued his improvement, how could we not believe we have a team that should be a contender? You run the pick and roll with Conley and Millsap, and you let Mayo and Gay do their thing, and you are consistent defense and role players away from a team that would be contending for championships within five years.

 

Or am I looking their Beale St. Blue tinted glasses?

The problem is, you don't get RFAs that easily unless there's some kind of situation in the team. Why wouldn't Utah stick with Milsap instead of Boozer? He is in the age range of Williams, meaning they would peak at the same time, more or less. I don't see how any amount of money we find reasonable wouldn't be reasonable for Utah. A Josh Smith deal could do the trick, but I'm not that sure, at this rate (18.4 and 11.7 so far in December) Utah is going to match anything and think long term with Williams and Milsap trying to add some wing help.

 

As for the trades, think the Gasol scenario. Some players are just not first or second options, they fail to lead their teams, and then get traded. If we clearly have a very good 1-2 punch in Mayo and Gay, adding one of those players while having a star in his rookie contract is not that bad at all. That's assuming we are playoff candidates starting next year, which remains to be seen. To follow the Utah case, we could absorb Kirilenko for free and use him as a third string, he is not an offensive leader, but he is capable of scoring in the 15s efficiently while providing defense, experience and polivalence, his contract would go off the summer we have to resign Conley and Marc Gasol and we would know exactly how much those are worth after a couple of playoff runs, and maybe get to keep Andrei at a reasonable contract and probably as a more of a role player.

 

And Kirilenko is not exactly a Pau Gasol type of deal, but it could work for us if we are not able to land a good FA, we are overpaying too, but for less years, and gives us flexibility to resign our young players. There are more cases, some are role players (Hinrich, Murphy), some have longer contracts (Okafor), some I'm not sure how would fit (Monta Ellis, Chris Kaman, Gerald Wallace), some are maybe too old (Jamison), some are unlikely right now, but who knows? (Al Jefferson) But there are potential situations where dumping salaries might be the clue to it, so it's not just about FAs, although the FA market is the easiest way to get the player we are looking for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The problem is, you don't get RFAs that easily unless there's some kind of situation in the team. Why wouldn't Utah stick with Milsap instead of Boozer? He is in the age range of Williams, meaning they would peak at the same time, more or less. I don't see how any amount of money we find reasonable wouldn't be reasonable for Utah. A Josh Smith deal could do the trick, but I'm not that sure, at this rate (18.4 and 11.7 so far in December) Utah is going to match anything and think long term with Williams and Milsap trying to add some wing help.

 

Why? Because Boozer is better than Millsap and proven. The sensible thing is to give up Boozer and use Millsap as a cheaper replacement, but if you have Karl Malone, and Ben Wallace emerges, you probably are going to stick with the guy the fans love.

 

As for the trades, think the Gasol scenario. Some players are just not first or second options, they fail to lead their teams, and then get traded. If we clearly have a very good 1-2 punch in Mayo and Gay, adding one of those players while having a star in his rookie contract is not that bad at all. That's assuming we are playoff candidates starting next year, which remains to be seen. To follow the Utah case, we could absorb Kirilenko for free and use him as a third string, he is not an offensive leader, but he is capable of scoring in the 15s efficiently while providing defense, experience and polivalence, his contract would go off the summer we have to resign Conley and Marc Gasol and we would know exactly how much those are worth after a couple of playoff runs, and maybe get to keep Andrei at a reasonable contract and probably as a more of a role player.

 

Unfortunately, the Grizzlies will never been in the situation to waste dollars. Getting a guy like AK47 or even a Zach Randolph (at least Randolph scores... That is better than being an jack of all trades and a master of none) would be a bad example when you are trying to have fiscal prudence when signing (and re-signing) guys. With AK47 on your roster, how can tell Rudy Gay he doesn't deserve the max?

 

And Kirilenko is not exactly a Pau Gasol type of deal, but it could work for us if we are not able to land a good FA, we are overpaying too, but for less years, and gives us flexibility to resign our young players. There are more cases, some are role players (Hinrich, Murphy), some have longer contracts (Okafor), some I'm not sure how would fit (Monta Ellis, Chris Kaman, Gerald Wallace), some are maybe too old (Jamison), some are unlikely right now, but who knows? (Al Jefferson) But there are potential situations where dumping salaries might be the clue to it, so it's not just about FAs, although the FA market is the easiest way to get the player we are looking for.

 

The best chance for making an impact is to develop our guys, and add an expensive piece that will be a good long term value, and filling holes with temp and cheap guys. Look at NOLA... It's kind of the template we need to follow. If OJ Mayo is as good as Chris Paul (and I think that is entirely possible - he may end up being better) we need to make good draft picks in the 10-20 range, and we need to add the right fits.

 

Paul Millsap and David Lee are the only guys I would throw big money at without proven value. I wouldn't take a chance on Boozer. Now in 2010, I'd probably take a chance on Amare because at that time, we will have two more draft picks and a better idea of where our core is going. In 2009, it's about getting guys who fit with the youth movement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i like david lee, i think he is a good fit at the 4 for us, but i dont see the knicks letting him go easily. He is a nice player who hits the boards and doesnt ask for the ball. he shold be cheaper than a lot of other options being talked about, but who knows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is an idea I thought of...

 

How about we help Miami get Boozer. It is no secret that Miami is not in love with Beasley....

 

Mark Blount, Dorrell Wright, Micheal Beasley for the Grizzlies 2009 draft pick.

 

It gives Miami about $10 million more in cap room for 2009. Blount and Wright are expiring. Wright can back up Rudy at the SF spot. Beasley and Mayo extensions don't kick in until 2012. The Grizzlies still have enough cap room and assets to pursue a veteran defensive big like Varejao. Beasley would also answer our need a shooter question.

 

Gay, Mayo, and Beasley would form potentially the best trio in NBA history in 3-5 years. Make no mistake that Beasley is light years ahead of anyone in this draft class.

 

Discuss...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is an idea I thought of...

 

How about we help Miami get Boozer. It is no secret that Miami is not in love with Beasley....

 

Mark Blount, Dorrell Wright, Micheal Beasley for the Grizzlies 2009 draft pick.

 

It gives Miami about $10 million more in cap room for 2009. Blount and Wright are expiring. Wright can back up Rudy at the SF spot. Beasley and Mayo extensions don't kick in until 2012. The Grizzlies still have enough cap room and assets to pursue a veteran defensive big like Varejao. Beasley would also answer our need a shooter question.

 

Gay, Mayo, and Beasley would form potentially the best trio in NBA history in 3-5 years. Make no mistake that Beasley is light years ahead of anyone in this draft class.

 

Discuss...

 

I have to think that our pick would have to be a darned good one for them to do this, even in light of the fact that it would almost make Boozer a shoo-in to head to MIA. Essentially they're trading Beasley for Boozer and a top-ten pick.

 

I'm not sure if the Guru of Hair Gel would go for it, particularly in light of the fact that it was circulated (although unsubstantiated) that MIA wanted Gay for their pick that was figured to be Beasley.

 

Gay/Mayo/Beasley would be...interesting....it would surely take any offensive pressure off the Yeti.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is an idea I thought of...

 

How about we help Miami get Boozer. It is no secret that Miami is not in love with Beasley....

 

Mark Blount, Dorrell Wright, Micheal Beasley for the Grizzlies 2009 draft pick.

 

It gives Miami about $10 million more in cap room for 2009. Blount and Wright are expiring. Wright can back up Rudy at the SF spot. Beasley and Mayo extensions don't kick in until 2012. The Grizzlies still have enough cap room and assets to pursue a veteran defensive big like Varejao. Beasley would also answer our need a shooter question.

 

Gay, Mayo, and Beasley would form potentially the best trio in NBA history in 3-5 years. Make no mistake that Beasley is light years ahead of anyone in this draft class.

 

Discuss...

 

Not happening.

 

But I would love Mayo to Gay to Beasley.

 

Especially with Conley having a great ability to pass.

 

Important to remember...

 

Grizz 2009 pick before Miami signs Boozer? What if Boozer stays in Utah?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Getting a guy like AK47 or even a Zach Randolph [...]

 

I have to say that IMO Kirilenko is way better than Randolph. Randolph is just a stat guy, with low basketball IQ, no defense, not a good teammate and a proven cancer.

 

Kirlenko can produce in the right situation, and that is playing at the four. His stats went down when Utah started playing him at the 3 to fit in Okur and Boozer, until then he was a consistently producing 15-16 points with good shooting (1.40 to 1.50 points per shot, that's great, Rudy is lower than 1.2 right now, Mayo is 1.25), 8 rebounds, 3-4 assists, 1.5+ steals, 3+ blocks, giving you really good defense, a three point shooting threat from the 4 and right now some experience. OK, that's not exactly Kevin Garnett, but I take that for my third string player in a heartbeat. And as a Grizzlie he could be that player again.

 

The problem is, like you say, timing (and the Gay contract too, but that could worked with the classic "we didn't give him that contract"), it's not like we are expecting deep runs in the playoffs the next two seasons (but NOLA made one in Paul's third season, and Stojakovic is at least as overpaid as Kirilenko, only better used). If there is a chance of retaining the player at a fairer contract after the current one expires, then the move is good, and I don't exactly see it as wasting money if playoff runs are involved, I'm not talking about a downhill player like Eddie Jones.

 

I'm not trying to make a case about Kirilenko, it's just a player that came to mind because we were talking about Utah, and is the type of player that fits the bill for improvement after a trade.

 

My point is that at same point we are going to need to add some experience to the core, unless we are planning on waiting for 3-4 years before doing serious playoff runs (that would be wasting money), because one of the main weaknesses of our team is inexperience. If we can add a player that helps us in scoring, defense, fill a position we need to fill and adds experience, that's a huge step forward. Boozer can give us that in the FA market, and it seems that we have a real shot at getting him, but there are trades we can do using our capspace to get that kind of help too.

 

Milsap or Lee would be great, but they are hard to get, and we still would need veteran help. NOLA got Stojakovic, who had big playoff experience, including some conference finals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember thinking that the Hornets had over paid for Peja. All that talk got lost in the winning. Like New Orleans, we need to add a significantly contributing vetaran to our starting 5. This is where the debate on Millsap and Boozer gets hairy. I would rather over pay Boozer than over pay Millsap. I am not sure how many other veteran option are out there. Artest? Hedo? Odom?

 

....Goes back to reasoning with the NBA lottery gods. :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure Boozer's health isn't a issue, yes, he is a stud. Milsap would do for sure. Here are some names i'm wondering about...............Carl Landry, or Scola...........Brandon Bass from Dallas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I remember thinking that the Hornets had over paid for Peja. All that talk got lost in the winning. Like New Orleans, we need to add a significantly contributing vetaran to our starting 5. This is where the debate on Millsap and Boozer gets hairy. I would rather over pay Boozer than over pay Millsap. I am not sure how many other veteran option are out there. Artest? Hedo? Odom?

 

....Goes back to reasoning with the NBA lottery gods. :blink:

 

That's a very good point, X. I've seen a lot of "up and comers" get big contracts just to see them fizzle...too many to list, really. With Boozer, we know what we're going to get.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's a very good point, X. I've seen a lot of "up and comers" get big contracts just to see them fizzle...too many to list, really. With Boozer, we know what we're going to get.

 

 

 

 

 

 

We have superstar money. We should go out and get us a superstar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We have superstar money. We should go out and get us a superstar.

 

Who do you think will want to play here in Memphis?

None of these stars are coming to TN.

 

Josh Smith wanted the money. Only chance we have of getting anyone is over paying someone like Josh Smith. A decent player but not a superstar. Someone no one would even know his name if he wasn't a dunker. (No one knew his name before last year except die hard basketball fans and bandwagon slam dunk contest winner watchers)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Who do you think will want to play here in Memphis?

None of these stars are coming to TN.

 

Josh Smith wanted the money. Only chance we have of getting anyone is over paying someone like Josh Smith. A decent player but not a superstar. Someone no one would even know his name if he wasn't a dunker. (No one knew his name before last year except die hard basketball fans and bandwagon slam dunk contest winner watchers)

 

Take that negative attitude to another board.

No income tax in tennessee? why would anyone want to come here to get paid big bucks ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is an idea I thought of...

 

How about we help Miami get Boozer. It is no secret that Miami is not in love with Beasley....

 

Mark Blount, Dorrell Wright, Micheal Beasley for the Grizzlies 2009 draft pick.

 

It gives Miami about $10 million more in cap room for 2009. Blount and Wright are expiring. Wright can back up Rudy at the SF spot. Beasley and Mayo extensions don't kick in until 2012. The Grizzlies still have enough cap room and assets to pursue a veteran defensive big like Varejao. Beasley would also answer our need a shooter question.

 

Gay, Mayo, and Beasley would form potentially the best trio in NBA history in 3-5 years. Make no mistake that Beasley is light years ahead of anyone in this draft class.

 

Discuss...

miami isn't happy with beasley??????

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Who do you think will want to play here in Memphis?

None of these stars are coming to TN.

 

Josh Smith wanted the money. Only chance we have of getting anyone is over paying someone like Josh Smith. A decent player but not a superstar. Someone no one would even know his name if he wasn't a dunker. (No one knew his name before last year except die hard basketball fans and bandwagon slam dunk contest winner watchers)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Top FAs are almost always overpaid. Look at Reggie Lewis from a few years ago.

 

I know it's hard for some people to belive that players would want to live and play in Memphis, but money is the most important variable in free agency, and the Griz have a lot of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites