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Grizzlies/NBA Free Agency Thread

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9 minutes ago, srmjr23 said:

Bogdan/Buddy Hield/Malik Beasley are our best options right now IMO and none of them are likely to happen unfortunately.

They can’t keep Bogdan and Buddy unless they’re trying to get into the tax without a playoff team 

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22 minutes ago, King Dork said:

They have a lot of dudes to pay. That’s the only reason I say do it. BI this year Lonzo and Josh Hart next year and a few others in the mix. Make them make that decision 

I'd say their core would be BI, Lonzo, and Zion. I doubt they'd pay too much to keep Hart since they have NAW as well. BI would certainly be a good fit for this team. I hope Josh Jackson can get it together so we could have an ultra long and athletic team. 

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23 minutes ago, King Dork said:

They can’t keep Bogdan and Buddy unless they’re trying to get into the tax without a playoff team 

You're exactly right. They'd be deep into the tax to keep both, so we could get one of them, most likely Bogdan. To be fair, I do think they'll be a playoff team this year. I think they'll sneak into that 8th seed. 

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On 10/8/2019 at 11:04 PM, Rdk4121 said:

I think Bogdan is probably our best bet at a splash in free agency next year. Obviously he'd be looking for a pay raise and a bigger role than in Sacramento, and we would offer both. It looks like Beasley is going to get an extension with the Nuggets. 

The Nuggets offered 3 yrs $30 million. So they are trying to get Beasley on the cheap. This is when you use back channels to say we will offer $20 million a year, wait it out. If nothing else, you want Beasley to make it to the offseason as RFA. Give yourself a chance.

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On 10/8/2019 at 11:14 PM, Dwash said:

Brown is Bostons second best young player. They have room under the tax to offer him the max next year. So if they dont think he is worth the max (just 25% of the salary cap) while pushing for a title then I kinda dont want him either.

OKC thought it was smarter to pay Ibaka than pay Harden the max. They offered Harden a little less than max. When he wouldn't sign, they traded him. This is right after they went to the Finals. I say that to say don't worry about what another team thinks of the guy. If you think he is worth it, offer it.

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15 minutes ago, lsugrizzfan said:

The Nuggets offered 3 yrs $30 million. So they are trying to get Beasley on the cheap. This is when you use back channels to say we will offer $20 million a year, wait it out. If nothing else, you want Beasley to make it to the offseason as RFA. Give yourself a chance.

Maybe i should post this in "scrub love thread" but i would rather see what Grayson and Josh Jackson can do than pay Malik Beasley near Max.    Grayson is the exact same size as Malik(6'4 w/6'7wingspan)  but has more skills and way more athleticism.    So who has the higher ceiling?  

Ultimately i'd like to see a future lineup of Ja + Grayson + Josh + Brandon + Jaren could do.    Grayson and Josh can handle in traffic and both offer secondary ball-handling and athleticism.     Grayson would be the floor spacing secondary playmaker.  Josh would the defensive versatile slasher.    They could be pretty good complimentary wings around Ja +Jaren.  

I know i know Grayson has only looked good in a couple of meaningless games and Josh is in the freaking G-league.   But i am basing my opinion on their actual proven skillsets.   

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44 minutes ago, lsugrizzfan said:

OKC thought it was smarter to pay Ibaka than pay Harden the max. They offered Harden a little less than max. When he wouldn't sign, they traded him. This is right after they went to the Finals. I say that to say don't worry about what another team thinks of the guy. If you think he is worth it, offer it.

I would have to say that is a special situation for a few reasons. First they had Harden in a bench role, not putting him completely on display. Boston and really everybody else will see what Brown has this year in a starting role. And Boston needs him a lot more going forward while OKC felt that they didnt need three backcourt players as much to compete.  This was largely due to the game being in transition from interior to exterior play being more important (thus placing more value on Ibaka). Now everybody is all about their wing play. OKC imo definetely makes a different choice if everyone is treating guard play like they do now back then.

On top of that they traded him. They got a solid bench 2 guard (Kevin Martin) and a future pick (became Steven Adams). The decision is a little different if its pay him an extra 3 or 4 million or get nothing. Again, they likely do what most teams do if they would have had to make that choice which is pay him and sort it out financially later.  On top of that, luxury tax fear has subsided as the cap has grown, deals have shortened and it is easier to shed money now and avoid repeater taxes. In 2012 owners were terrified of it. Now you see a handful of teams paying it every year (OKC has been one of them).

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2 hours ago, lsugrizzfan said:

The Nuggets offered 3 yrs $30 million. So they are trying to get Beasley on the cheap. This is when you use back channels to say we will offer $20 million a year, wait it out. If nothing else, you want Beasley to make it to the offseason as RFA. Give yourself a chance.

He declined that and they're working on the extension again. I think he'll get 15 or so million a year from them. 

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1 hour ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

Maybe i should post this in "scrub love thread" but i would rather see what Grayson and Josh Jackson can do than pay Malik Beasley near Max.    Grayson is the exact same size as Malik(6'4 w/6'7wingspan)  but has more skills and way more athleticism.    So who has the higher ceiling?  

Ultimately i'd like to see a future lineup of Ja + Grayson + Josh + Brandon + Jaren could do.    Grayson and Josh can handle in traffic and both offer secondary ball-handling and athleticism.     Grayson would be the floor spacing secondary playmaker.  Josh would the defensive versatile slasher.    They could be pretty good complimentary wings around Ja +Jaren.  

I know i know Grayson has only looked good in a couple of meaningless games and Josh is in the freaking G-league.   But i am basing my opinion on their actual proven skillsets.   

Malik Beasley is already at knockdown shooter and a very good defender. Maybe Allen can be that, but you always pay someone for more proven production. If he can replicate his stats from last year again, then he is with 15-20 million to us to fill one of our biggest holes. 

Allen is starting to look better though. I also think Josh will get it turned around here. He can learn a lot from Jae on how to prepare and be a professional. Let's hope both those guys can at least be good bench players for us. I think they have a reasonable shot at being a starter for us as well. Both can handle the ball, both can create their own shot, both are improving 3 point shooters, both are athletic and can be good to very good on defense. 

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7 hours ago, Rdk4121 said:

Malik Beasley is already at knockdown shooter and a very good defender. Maybe Allen can be that, but you always pay someone for more proven production. If he can replicate his stats from last year again, then he is with 15-20 million to us to fill one of our biggest holes. 

Allen is starting to look better though. I also think Josh will get it turned around here. He can learn a lot from Jae on how to prepare and be a professional. Let's hope both those guys can at least be good bench players for us. I think they have a reasonable shot at being a starter for us as well. Both can handle the ball, both can create their own shot, both are improving 3 point shooters, both are athletic and can be good to very good on defense. 

Beasley is a bad defender. It is why I prefer Jaylen Brown over him. However Beasley has proven he can score on all three levels and do so efficiently. If the Nuggets get him for anywhere close to $15 million, it is highway robbery. He would get $20+ million in the offseason if he replicates last year's numbers.

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9 hours ago, Dwash said:

I would have to say that is a special situation for a few reasons. First they had Harden in a bench role, not putting him completely on display. Boston and really everybody else will see what Brown has this year in a starting role. And Boston needs him a lot more going forward while OKC felt that they didnt need three backcourt players as much to compete.  This was largely due to the game being in transition from interior to exterior play being more important (thus placing more value on Ibaka). Now everybody is all about their wing play. OKC imo definetely makes a different choice if everyone is treating guard play like they do now back then.

On top of that they traded him. They got a solid bench 2 guard (Kevin Martin) and a future pick (became Steven Adams). The decision is a little different if its pay him an extra 3 or 4 million or get nothing. Again, they likely do what most teams do if they would have had to make that choice which is pay him and sort it out financially later.  On top of that, luxury tax fear has subsided as the cap has grown, deals have shortened and it is easier to shed money now and avoid repeater taxes. In 2012 owners were terrified of it. Now you see a handful of teams paying it every year (OKC has been one of them).

Harden was a sub but he play 31.4 minutes per game. If you're saying he wasn't "completely on display," it has nothing to do with him being a sub. Whatever we didn't see from Harden was only because Durant and Westbrook were options 1 and 2. Brown is similar to the Harden situation in that you have to project what you think he will be with a larger role. The hope if that he will be what he was in the 2018 playoffs when he had a bigger role. That player is a max level player. Can he be that? I think so. As far as trading or losing for nothing, Boston has similar leverage. All they have to do is threaten to match if you don't do a sign and trade. Now would I offer Jaylen Brown $20+ million and trade something for him? No. But that doesn't mean Boston has no leverage.

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1 hour ago, lsugrizzfan said:

Harden was a sub but he play 31.4 minutes per game. If you're saying he wasn't "completely on display," it has nothing to do with him being a sub. Whatever we didn't see from Harden was only because Durant and Westbrook were options 1 and 2. Brown is similar to the Harden situation in that you have to project what you think he will be with a larger role. The hope if that he will be what he was in the 2018 playoffs when he had a bigger role. That player is a max level player. Can he be that? I think so. As far as trading or losing for nothing, Boston has similar leverage. All they have to do is threaten to match if you don't do a sign and trade. Now would I offer Jaylen Brown $20+ million and trade something for him? No. But that doesn't mean Boston has no leverage.

I would have to say Brown is in the max role that we will ever see from him on a title team.  Which is a good 2/3 option.   I mean he isnt with KD and Westbrook, he is only playing with Walker and Tatum and he starts full time this year so I just dont see anyway we dont see most of what he has this year unless he gets hurt. 

OKC was just plain silly.  Even Miami identified Harden as the teams key playmaker in the finals which is why they excessively trapped him and let Westbrook run wild one on one. I for one was ****** when Memphis didnt draft him and didnt get how they would let him go. He was an absolute terror off the bench and as big as Ginobili was for the Spurs.  Westbrook and Harden were literally taking turns going at Conley in that 3 OT game. Gotta keep that period.

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11 hours ago, fanboyslim said:

All these calculations are going to be thrown off big time if the NBA’s issues with China aren’t sorted out quickly.

 

Yes. I'm really OK maintaining flexibility and using cap space to acquire more future assets, and this China deal could mean more teams are hurting on cap/lux line.  Could be a real good time to maintain space, especially with the team multiple years away from playoffs.

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I completely forgot about Taurean Prince, but he'd be a great pickup. He's a great 3 point shooter and has great size. Not great on defense though he does have the ability to improve. 

I'd honestly like to load up on decent vets that can help our young guys/make us a little more competitive. Keeping Jae after this year will pay dividends for us, and I'd like to add a guy like Bazemore and/or Farried. Guys that have been around the block. Just add them on a 1 to 2 year deal to help guys like Allen, Josh, Dillon, Brandon, and Bruno kind of learn the ins and outs of the NBA. 

When you see teams be consistently bottom dwellers, you see it's usually because they rely exclusively on young players, but those young players never really develop like they should. Hard to develop when you are getting destroyed every night. Just look at the Suns and Knicks for the last several years. I think both teams finally added some quality depth that should help them take tangible steps forward this year. They won't be great, but they will improve. 

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11 hours ago, Dwash said:

I would have to say Brown is in the max role that we will ever see from him on a title team.  Which is a good 2/3 option.   I mean he isnt with KD and Westbrook, he is only playing with Walker and Tatum and he starts full time this year so I just dont see anyway we dont see most of what he has this year unless he gets hurt. 

OKC was just plain silly.  Even Miami identified Harden as the teams key playmaker in the finals which is why they excessively trapped him and let Westbrook run wild one on one. I for one was ****** when Memphis didnt draft him and didnt get how they would let him go. He was an absolute terror off the bench and as big as Ginobili was for the Spurs.  Westbrook and Harden were literally taking turns going at Conley in that 3 OT game. Gotta keep that period.

I agree with you that Brown's ceiling is probably 2nd best player on a title contender but more likely 3rd best player on a title contender. That's still a max player...if you truly want to compete for a title, your 2nd and 3rd best players better be max level players. 

Maybe Brown gets a bigger role this year. I'm not certain. If Heyward is recovered, I can see him getting more shots than Brown. Last year Brown averaged 10.7 FGA per game which was 4th on the Celtics. That would have been 5th on the Grizzlies. In the 2018 playoffs, he was getting 14.8 FGA. He averaged 18 ppg on 46% from the floor and 39% from 3. He's a plus defender, not great but above average. His biggest flaw is lack of playmaking ability.

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10 minutes ago, lsugrizzfan said:

I agree with you that Brown's ceiling is probably 2nd best player on a title contender but more likely 3rd best player on a title contender. That's still a max player...if you truly want to compete for a title, your 2nd and 3rd best players better be max level players. 

Maybe Brown gets a bigger role this year. I'm not certain. If Heyward is recovered, I can see him getting more shots than Brown. Last year Brown averaged 10.7 FGA per game which was 4th on the Celtics. That would have been 5th on the Grizzlies. In the 2018 playoffs, he was getting 14.8 FGA. He averaged 18 ppg on 46% from the floor and 39% from 3. He's a plus defender, not great but above average. His biggest flaw is lack of playmaking ability.

Hayward looks like he's almost completely back to normal. I'd expect him to get more shots honestly. Also if you remember back to last year, they had Marcus smart starting over him for most of the year until smart got injured. If you're the celtics, do you pay potentially a bench player or your 4th best player the max? Obviously this is a little more complicated that that. They'd be in the tax if they max him out (if they don't waive some people/ Kanter picks up his option). If the salary cap drops 10-15 million like is possible, then they're ultra screwed as far as the tax is concerned. 

Even if the salary cap goes down that much, we'd still have 34-39 million, so plenty to max him out. 

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The $10-15 million figure drop is an exaggeration. Revenue from China is around 7% of total BRI (basketball related income), and the salary cap hit would be proportional to the lost income. For a $109M cap that would be around $7.6M.

But that would be assuming revenue from China drops to zero and the remaining income doesn’t grow year over year, which is wildly unrealistic.

A $3-5M cap drop is more realistic, but given how close to the tax line many teams are it would be enough to get a lot of GMs sweating bullets.

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54 minutes ago, fanboyslim said:

The $10-15 million figure drop is an exaggeration. Revenue from China is around 7% of total BRI (basketball related income), and the salary cap hit would be proportional to the lost income. For a $109M cap that would be around $7.6M.

But that would be assuming revenue from China drops to zero and the remaining income doesn’t grow year over year, which is wildly unrealistic.

A $3-5M cap drop is more realistic, but given how close to the tax line many teams are it would be enough to get a lot of GMs sweating bullets.

Most projections I've seen have been a drop from 10-15% of the 116 million cap figure. That would be 11.6 to 17.4 million. That is a lot, don't get me wrong and I'll assume they'll be able to course correct a little bit, but those are the numbers being floated around. 

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2 hours ago, Rdk4121 said:

Most projections I've seen have been a drop from 10-15% of the 116 million cap figure. That would be 11.6 to 17.4 million. That is a lot, don't get me wrong and I'll assume they'll be able to course correct a little bit, but those are the numbers being floated around. 

Again, it's difficult to cause a 10%-15% drop when you account for 7% of the BRI. The salary cap is only affected by the BRI, which is not the same as total revenue. Other revenues can be severely affected and this will of course impact the teams' bottom line, but not the salary cap.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q11

Now, to be fair I ran the calculations in my head.

Basketball related income from China is estimated to be $500M (https://eu.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2019/10/09/nba-china-hong-kong-whats-at-stake/3912447002/)

The 2019-20 salary cap is $109M. The cap is calculated as 44.74% of the projected BRI, divided by 30 teams. If my math is correct that means the BRI would be about $7,309M. $500M is 6.84%. 6.84% of $109M is $7.46M

Now, that's assuming the $500M estimation is correct. There may be additional deals that have been signed recently, but if so that would mean a reduction in future salary caps, not this year's.

Anyway, since the numbers currently floated come from unnamed sources and neither Woj nor Woj light (Shams) have said a peep I would take them with a grain of salt. For all we know this may be one of the owners trying to get a future free agent to sign an extension.

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54 minutes ago, fanboyslim said:

Again, it's difficult to cause a 10%-15% drop when you account for 7% of the BRI. The salary cap is only affected by the BRI, which is not the same as total revenue. Other revenues can be severely affected and this will of course impact the teams' bottom line, but not the salary cap.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q11

Now, to be fair I ran the calculations in my head.

Basketball related income from China is estimated to be $500M (https://eu.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2019/10/09/nba-china-hong-kong-whats-at-stake/3912447002/)

The 2019-20 salary cap is $109M. The cap is calculated as 44.74% of the projected BRI, divided by 30 teams. If my math is correct that means the BRI would be about $7,309M. $500M is 6.84%. 6.84% of $109M is $7.46M

Now, that's assuming the $500M estimation is correct. There may be additional deals that have been signed recently, but if so that would mean a reduction in future salary caps, not this year's.

Anyway, since the numbers currently floated come from unnamed sources and neither Woj nor Woj light (Shams) have said a peep I would take them with a grain of salt. For all we know this may be one of the owners trying to get a future free agent to sign an extension.

This is all for next year's cap projection of 116 million. I don't believe they can change this year cap figure at this point. The cap is set based on the previous season's revenue, so I believe we're only talking about next year. Now I don't know what goes into BRI, but an increase of 200 million in revenue from China would get the number up to 10.3 million. I know they've said 11 companies have stopped working with the NBA as a result, I don't know how those companies factored into that 500 million before all this happened. 

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we have waived Matt Mooney and signed everyone’s favorite 8th grader Dusty Hannahs

Dusty Hannahs will sign an Exhibit 10 contract with the Memphis Grizzlies and is expected to be part of the Memphis Hustle this season. Grizzlies are waiving G Matt Mooney. Mooney will join the Memphis Hustle and participate in their training camp

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11 hours ago, The Stro Show said:

we have waived Matt Mooney and signed everyone’s favorite 8th grader Dusty Hannahs

Dusty Hannahs will sign an Exhibit 10 contract with the Memphis Grizzlies and is expected to be part of the Memphis Hustle this season. Grizzlies are waiving G Matt Mooney. Mooney will join the Memphis Hustle and participate in their training camp

Dusty got all the love when he checked in tonight ! 

Lots of 'Put Dusty in' until he got in

and 'Shoot it !' when he got it !

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On 10/11/2019 at 3:32 PM, fanboyslim said:

Again, it's difficult to cause a 10%-15% drop when you account for 7% of the BRI. The salary cap is only affected by the BRI, which is not the same as total revenue. Other revenues can be severely affected and this will of course impact the teams' bottom line, but not the salary cap.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q11

Now, to be fair I ran the calculations in my head.

Basketball related income from China is estimated to be $500M (https://eu.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2019/10/09/nba-china-hong-kong-whats-at-stake/3912447002/)

The 2019-20 salary cap is $109M. The cap is calculated as 44.74% of the projected BRI, divided by 30 teams. If my math is correct that means the BRI would be about $7,309M. $500M is 6.84%. 6.84% of $109M is $7.46M

Now, that's assuming the $500M estimation is correct. There may be additional deals that have been signed recently, but if so that would mean a reduction in future salary caps, not this year's.

Anyway, since the numbers currently floated come from unnamed sources and neither Woj nor Woj light (Shams) have said a peep I would take them with a grain of salt. For all we know this may be one of the owners trying to get a future free agent to sign an extension.

You are forgetting about Nike. They made 6.2 Billion dollars in revenue last year just from China. If things get worse between the NBA and China and/or if it hits the fan in Hong Kong (Chinese action taken resulting in sanctions and boycotts), things could get very bad for the NBA. 

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On 10/14/2019 at 1:06 PM, The Stro Show said:

we have waived Matt Mooney and signed everyone’s favorite 8th grader Dusty Hannahs

Dusty Hannahs will sign an Exhibit 10 contract with the Memphis Grizzlies and is expected to be part of the Memphis Hustle this season. Grizzlies are waiving G Matt Mooney. Mooney will join the Memphis Hustle and participate in their training camp

We have already waived Dusty to sign Ahmed Caver

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