Ole Dirty Klondike

Is Ja Morant Worthy of a #2 pick?

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[DISCLAIMER: I like to play devil's advocate at times. I also like to force people to do something that most Americans hate to do.....actually THINK! No need to get offended or emotional. it's just getting you to think. As people will remember before the Draft Lottery, I said that I would prefer us getting the #2 pick and picking Morant over getting the #1 pick and picking Williamson so this thread is in no way bashing Morant, just bringing up a real question]

Is Ja Morant really worth of the #2 pick? Are people that cocksure that he will be a superstar and he's the heir apparent to Conley? The person who will be Mike plus athleticism, hops and flashy passes?  I was listening to Jonathan Givony on the radio after the draft lottery and brought up a point which I don't think anyone is considering. On paper, if I told you that you had to choose between two players which one would you choose? Player A is a 6'3", 165 pound PG who came out of nowhere to put up eye popping stats while playing at a small school in a mid-major conference vs Player B who is an athletic 6'7" scorer who can score anywhere on the floor who led the ACC (the best college bball conf) in scoring and was in a battle almost every night against top level talent, not to mention he led his national team to a FIBA U19 World Cup Championship and his father was a pro bball player. THE CHOICE WOULD BE OBVIOUS. If you didn't know who these players were, the overwhelming majority of people would select the ACC guy who has a better pedigree and a longer history of success at a high level.  Yet, we have somehow focused on Ja Morant as the clear cut choice as the #2 pick, why?

Ja Morant said that he couldn't even dunk until the summer before his senior year in high school. Also, Ja and Zion played together on an AAU team. Zion went on to a bigger circuit with a team sponsored by a shoe company, but Ja didn't, why? Not many D1 colleges recruited Ja, why?I think these are all valid questions to ask because how many times have you seen someone come out of virtually nowhere to be a top lottery pick and go on to have success in the NBA?

Ja's numbers in his sophomore season were eye popping but what do those numbers mean? I mean, the number 1 scorer in D1 basketball last season was Chris Clemons from Campbell. he averaged 30 ppg last year and has scored over 20 ppg for 3 straight seasons. Why not draft him? Why not draft Justin Wright-Foreman from Hofstra who was the #2 scorer and has scored at least 18 ppg for 3 straight years and he's about the same height but thicker than Ja. What makes Ja so special and different than these other mid-major guys who put up big time meaningless stats against teams where no one will sniff the NBA? Let's look at Ja's performance against high major teams:

in his freshman year(unless I overlooked someone), I only see that he played against 2 high major teams- Auburn and West Virginia:

  • Auburn- Loss, Ja has 9 points, 5 assists and 7 boards  and was 2-10 from the field against Auburn in a loss. 
  • West Virginia- NCAA Tournament game- Loss, Ja had 14 points, 2 assists and 3 rebounds in a loss. As I mentioned before, Jevon Carter played in this game and had 21 points, 8 assists, 6 steals and 5 boards and he's a 10th string PG in the NBA.

I will say both of those teams were good teams and Ja was a freshman so he had to adapt but a loss is a loss and his 2 opportunities against high major teams resulted in losses his freshman year. Let's do the same for his sophomore year. He played against Alabama, Auburn, Marquette (I'll say the big East is a high major), and Florida State:

  • Alabama- Loss, Ja had 38 points, 9 boards, and 5 dimes in this loss...but he also had 10 turnovers
  • Auburn- Loss, Ja had 25 points, 8 boards and 7 dimes with 5 turnovers
  • Marquette- Win, NCAA Tourney game, ja had 17 point, 11 boards and 16 dimes along with 7 turnovers in the win
  • Florida State- Loss, NCAA Tourney game, 28 points, 5 reb, and 4 assists

I think it's fair to say that he was able to put up stats in those games, but did those stats help the team win? His best all around game was against Marquette and they won. The other games he seemed to score a lot but also had high turnovers so he was probably out of control. As a matter of fact, Ja average over 5 turnovers per game last year, maybe he was trying to do too much? So he was 1-5 against high major teams in a 2 year career. 

i just really feel there are some red flags surrounding a player who came out of nowhere. Now to be fair, I think there are red flags around Zion as well as RJ. Both played at Duke where players tend to disappoint in the NBA and Zion doesn't have a true position, not sure if he can stay healthy with his body weight. You look at RJ and not only do Duke players disappoint but so do Canadian players so that's a crapshoot as well. 

Is Ja really worthy of the #2 pick? Will he really be a hybrid of Westbrook and Rondo or will he be Cam Payne all over again? (for those who don't know, Cam is from Memphis, similar height and weight, played at Murray State and put up big numbers there but isn't exactly setting the NBA world on fire)

 

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From ESPN:

NBA draft projections: Most likely All-Stars and player comps

 

Everyone knows Zion Williamson is the best player in the 2019 NBA draft. But is he the best prospect in the past two drafts? Yes.

Past five? Yes.

Past 10? It depends how you look at it, respectively.

ESPN's NBA draft projections show Williamson has the most upside of any prospect to enter the NBA draft in the model's history, which dates back to 2005.* His average projections rank third among all players in the same time span, trailing only Greg Oden and Anthony Davis.

Per the model, Williamson has a 72 percent chance to reach an All-Star level of play in his first four seasons -- better than the same model would have said for the likes of Davis, Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant at the time of their drafts.

And as for the rest of the class of 2019? Williamson blows them out of the water. No other player in this year's class has even a 30 percent chance to reach an All-Star level, matching the perception that the drop-off from the first pick in this year's draft to the second is precipitous. In fact, if the second pick ends up being Ja Morant, the drop-off is even steeper (more on Morant in a minute).

Where are these numbers coming from?
ESPN's draft-projections model considers information from five different categories before forecasting the range of possibilities for each prospect's NBA career:

Opponent-adjusted NCAA production

League-adjusted international production

ESPN draft-expert rankings (Chad Ford's from 2000 to 2010, Jonathan Givony's from 2011 to 2018)

AAU/grassroots box score statistics

Combine measurements, such as height, weight, wingspan and body fat

For every player, the relevant categories are considered (only some players have an international track record, for example).

In which facets of the model did Williamson impress? Most of them.

The Duke product unsurprisingly ranked first in college production and first in Givony's rankings. He skipped the combine and doesn't have international experience. The only area in which he has an imperfect measurement is his grassroots production, for which he ranks sixth (he didn't put up quite as impressive rebounding or defensive numbers pre-college as he did at Duke).

All put together, Williamson has a 95 percent chance to become at least a starting-caliber player in his first four seasons and the aforementioned 72 percent shot at All-Star status. Putting Williamson at No. 1 and as an elite prospect is a shock to no one. But the chalk stops there.

Ja Morant: A reach at No. 2?

Our projections certainly think so.

ESPN's draft-analytics model pegs the Murray State sensation as just the 10th-best player in this year's class, with only a 35 percent chance to become at least a starting-caliber player. And, shockingly, it's his NCAA production -- or lack thereof -- that is keeping him there. I know what you're thinking: Morant was a stat machine! He averaged 24.5 points and 10 assists per game!

But there are two major caveats to Morant's collegiate production.

  • He wasn't nearly as statistically outrageous in his freshman season as he was as a sophomore.

  • The quality (or lack thereof) of Morant's opponents is significant. Most of them weren't exactly ACC-caliber. When we apply an opponent adjustment, Morant still grades out as elite in terms of assist production, but the rest of his numbers took a hit.

Consider especially these two factors combined: As a freshman, Morant was good but did not completely dominate the Ohio Valley conference. Morant might turn out to be a quality NBA player, but we would expect a future All-Star to excel even as a freshman against that level of competition.

 

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I think it's a valid point. Even if he does become a Westbrook/Rondo hybrid, will that be enough to win a championship with him as one of your top two options? Probably not - look at other teams of the past two decades where a ball-dominant PG is one of the top two options. 

Still believe he's the right pick at #2, but we're going to need one more stud to make it feasible to contend for a championship over the next decade. Ja and Jaren aren't going to be enough, even with high-end role players around. Need to get lucky once more and get a top-2 option for the rebuild to result in a team that surpasses the Grit and Grind Grizzlies.

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I think a lot depends on Conley's situation with Morant. I am not sold yet on his being an all-star much less a superstar in the league but if Conley leaves Morant is a nice fall back position. If Conley stays then R J Barrett is worthy of consideration. I said that the night of the lottery too. 

However it is a bit misleading to say Morant didn't get many college offers. He did. He chose Murray State but he had offers to the SEC and a lot of other D1 offers. Just not a lot of power 5 conference offers. That's not really surprising when you consider he was 5-10 and barely able to dunk after his junior year in high school. Some players are looking for the limelight. Others just want to be happy. Ja Morant made his choice but it is not sincere to suggest he didn't get a lot of offers. He was a late bloomer but he did bloom. 

Does this ESPN article actually show any comparisons between their work and reality? It does say the other highest picks included Greg Oden and Anthony Davis so it is not like they are infallible. 

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2 minutes ago, Dave's Not Here said:

Character, commitment and desire can not be assigned statistical values. Something JA has in spades.

 

.

So Cam Payne didn't have any of that?

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10 minutes ago, Ole Dirty Klondike said:

So Cam Payne didn't have any of that?

To be honest I haven't watched any pre-draft interviews of Cam Payne.

 

But I believe injuries derailed his NBA career more than his mental make-up.

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10 minutes ago, chipc3 said:

It's also a bit misleading to say Morant didn't get many offers. He did. He chose Murray State but he had offers to the SEC and a lot of other D1 offers. Some players are looking for the limelight. Others just want to be happy. Ja Morant made his choice but it is not sincere to suggest he didn't get a lot of offers. He was a late bloomer but he did bloom. 

I agree but I'm not sure how many of those offers were high major offers. I think a lot of those came from HBCUs in the MEAC like SC State and Maryland-Eastern Shore, and NC A&T. I think South Carolina came in late and Clemson thought about it but had no schollys to offer according to this Matt Norlander piece: 

Quote

According to Tee Morant, 13 Division I programs made official courtships for Ja, including Frank Martin's South Carolina Gamecocks. (Tee Morant said Clemson was interested, too, but didn't have an available scholarship on the table.) Regardless, most schools only came calling after Murray State found him. 

 

10 minutes ago, chipc3 said:

Does this ESPN article actually show any comparisons between their work and reality? It does say the other highest picks included Greg Oden and Anthony Davis so it is not like they are infallible. 

It's just a data point. It's definitely not the end all be all and it's definitely fallible. They have Tyreke Evans as the #7 highest chance of someone being an All-Star based on college numbers from 2005-2019. He was never an All Star and we know how that story ended. They also have Michael Carter WIlliams as the #4. He never reached all star status either. So the analysis has flaws.

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24 minutes ago, Dave's Not Here said:

To be honest I haven't watched any pre-draft interviews of Cam Payne.

 

But I believe injuries derailed his NBA career more than his mental make-up.

You're probably right about the injuries. But read this scouting report, does it not sound similar to moRANTA N

Quote

A very skinny lefty from a small private school in suburban Memphis, Cameron Payne wasn't on the radar of any recruiting services back in high school. He came off the bench for the Bluff City Legends AAU team alongside six eventual high major players, shooting just 39% for 2 and 32% for 3 while playing just 15 minutes per game. That didn't stop him from becoming one of the most productive freshmen in college basketball, though, earning First-Team All-Ohio Valley Conference honors as well as Freshman of the Year. As a sophomore, he started to draw attention from the national media as well, as Murray State won 25 straight games while Payne was named OVC Player of the Year. Murray lost in heartbreaking fashion in the conference tournament final to Belmont, and thus was relegated to the NIT, where they again lost on a buzzer beater (to Old Dominion) that prevented them from playing in the semifinals at Madison Square Garden. Payne elected not too long after to capitalize on his increasingly hot stock and enter the 2015 NBA Draft, where he is likely be anywhere from the third to fifth point guard selected depending on how private workouts shake out. Payne has decent size for a NBA point guard at 6-2, although his 183 pound frame still needs to continue to fill out, which it will as he reaches physical maturity. Payne also has big hands and a very long wingspan (6-7) which helps him particularly on defense. Payne biggest appeal as a NBA prospect is the terrific blend he displays between scoring and passing. He shouldered a huge amount of offense for Murray State (32% Usage, second highest in the DX Top-100), but still managed to remain relatively efficient (57% TS%) and dished out passes at a terrific rate (39.5% assist percentage, #1 in DX Top-100, 7.1 assists per-40, #4 DX-100). He's an extremely unselfish player who passes with great creativity and loves to move the ball ahead in transition, either utilizing his excellent ball-handling skills or by finding the open man running the floor. In the half-court, he changes speeds nicely and has a few different gears he can get to, which helps him in particular on the pick and roll, an area that made up nearly half of his overall offense. Payne sees the floor very well and utilizes all kinds of different types of passes, using both hands and sides of the court with outstanding timing and confidence. He stays very low on his drives, which, along with his ball-handling ability and variety of hesitation moves, helps compensate for the fact that he's not blessed with incredible blow-by speed or great strength. -

Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cameron-Payne-70346/ ©DraftExpress

 

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4 minutes ago, Ole Dirty Klondike said:

You're probably right about the injuries. But read this scouting report, does it not sound similar to moRANTA N

 

I am familiar with Cam Payne and you are 100% correct the similarities are eerie.  You raise fair questions.

 

With that said their is no numerical value to assign for heart.

 

And with that also said the draft is an inexact science as we so well know here in Memphis. Their are no sure things.

 

Even Zion has question marks. They said LeBron couldn't shoot either when he came out.

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Is all about putting tickets on the stands and Ja has that power and RJ does not.

As a Grizz fan I'm tired of not having a superstar or not even a STAR as I look at both players I think Morant has atleast a chance to be both.

RJ is Rudy Gay or Joe Johnson both are nice players but I'm NOT paying a ticket to go see them.

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1 hour ago, Ole Dirty Klondike said:

[DISCLAIMER: I like to play devil's advocate at times. I also like to force people to do something that most Americans hate to do.....actually THINK! No need to get offended or emotional. it's just getting you to think. As people will remember before the Draft Lottery, I said that I would prefer us getting the #2 pick and picking Morant over getting the #1 pick and picking Williamson so this thread is in no way bashing Morant, just bringing up a real question]

Is Ja Morant really worth of the #2 pick? Are people that cocksure that he will be a superstar and he's the heir apparent to Conley? The person who will be Mike plus athleticism, hops and flashy passes?  I was listening to Jonathan Givony on the radio after the draft lottery and brought up a point which I don't think anyone is considering. On paper, if I told you that you had to choose between two players which one would you choose? Player A is a 6'3", 165 pound PG who came out of nowhere to put up eye popping stats while playing at a small school in a mid-major conference vs Player B who is an athletic 6'7" scorer who can score anywhere on the floor who led the ACC (the best college bball conf) in scoring and was in a battle almost every night against top level talent, not to mention he led his national team to a FIBA U19 World Cup Championship and his father was a pro bball player. THE CHOICE WOULD BE OBVIOUS. If you didn't know who these players were, the overwhelming majority of people would select the ACC guy who has a better pedigree and a longer history of success at a high level.  Yet, we have somehow focused on Ja Morant as the clear cut choice as the #2 pick, why?

Ja Morant said that he couldn't even dunk until the summer before his senior year in high school. Also, Ja and Zion played together on an AAU team. Zion went on to a bigger circuit with a team sponsored by a shoe company, but Ja didn't, why? Not many D1 colleges recruited Ja, why?I think these are all valid questions to ask because how many times have you seen someone come out of virtually nowhere to be a top lottery pick and go on to have success in the NBA?

Ja's numbers in his sophomore season were eye popping but what do those numbers mean? I mean, the number 1 scorer in D1 basketball last season was Chris Clemons from Campbell. he averaged 30 ppg last year and has scored over 20 ppg for 3 straight seasons. Why not draft him? Why not draft Justin Wright-Foreman from Hofstra who was the #2 scorer and has scored at least 18 ppg for 3 straight years and he's about the same height but thicker than Ja. What makes Ja so special and different than these other mid-major guys who put up big time meaningless stats against teams where no one will sniff the NBA? Let's look at Ja's performance against high major teams:

in his freshman year(unless I overlooked someone), I only see that he played against 2 high major teams- Auburn and West Virginia:

  • Auburn- Loss, Ja has 9 points, 5 assists and 7 boards  and was 2-10 from the field against Auburn in a loss. 
  • West Virginia- NCAA Tournament game- Loss, Ja had 14 points, 2 assists and 3 rebounds in a loss. As I mentioned before, Jevon Carter played in this game and had 21 points, 8 assists, 6 steals and 5 boards and he's a 10th string PG in the NBA.

I will say both of those teams were good teams and Ja was a freshman so he had to adapt but a loss is a loss and his 2 opportunities against high major teams resulted in losses his freshman year. Let's do the same for his sophomore year. He played against Alabama, Auburn, Marquette (I'll say the big East is a high major), and Florida State:

  • Alabama- Loss, Ja had 38 points, 9 boards, and 5 dimes in this loss...but he also had 10 turnovers
  • Auburn- Loss, Ja had 25 points, 8 boards and 7 dimes with 5 turnovers
  • Marquette- Win, NCAA Tourney game, ja had 17 point, 11 boards and 16 dimes along with 7 turnovers in the win
  • Florida State- Loss, NCAA Tourney game, 28 points, 5 reb, and 4 assists

I think it's fair to say that he was able to put up stats in those games, but did those stats help the team win? His best all around game was against Marquette and they won. The other games he seemed to score a lot but also had high turnovers so he was probably out of control. As a matter of fact, Ja average over 5 turnovers per game last year, maybe he was trying to do too much? So he was 1-5 against high major teams in a 2 year career. 

i just really feel there are some red flags surrounding a player who came out of nowhere. Now to be fair, I think there are red flags around Zion as well as RJ. Both played at Duke where players tend to disappoint in the NBA and Zion doesn't have a true position, not sure if he can stay healthy with his body weight. You look at RJ and not only do Duke players disappoint but so do Canadian players so that's a crapshoot as well. 

Is Ja really worthy of the #2 pick? Will he really be a hybrid of Westbrook and Rondo or will he be Cam Payne all over again? (for those who don't know, Cam is from Memphis, similar height and weight, played at Murray State and put up big numbers there but isn't exactly setting the NBA world on fire)

 

Good post but these are meaningless predictors of future success. If I flip a coin 10* times and it lands on tails 9 out of 10, the next time I flip the coin the chances it will land on tails is still 50/50. 

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1 minute ago, Grizzfan7979 said:

I saw plenty enough of RJ to see that he is going to be a ballhog inefficient player.

Exactly when I saw Duke play this year I find myself going like ""just PASS it Zion already  !!!!""

 

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9 minutes ago, costarica2 said:

Is all about putting tickets on the stands and Ja has that power and RJ does not.

As a Grizz fan I'm tired of not having a superstar or not even a STAR as I look at both players I think Morant has atleast a chance to be both.

RJ is Rudy Gay or Joe Johnson both are nice players but I'm NOT paying a ticket to go see them.

Image result for i agree gif

The problem is if Ja Morant doesn't pan out quickly are you going to continue to buy tickets in the hope that he does? 

At this point I trust, for the first time in a while, the Grizzlies front office concerning talent evaluation. I wish they hadn't let it out so quickly that they were going with Ja but that is in the past and can't be changed. I expect both RJ and Ja will be brought in for workouts and more interviews. 

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So the top 3 teams should trade down to 4?

Garland, Hunter, and Bol look as good as anyone.  If you only look at highlights then each could make a case for being the top pick.

I am not sure that even Zion will get multiple MVP awards (sometimes MVP awards are kinda random and odds are SOMEBODY in a draft class is a potential MVP pick), not even Kobe or Shaq won more than one.  It wouldn't shock me if Zion NEVER wins an MVP award.  

I think his "surefire" All Star thing is BS -- I can see him getting VOTED IN though.  Should be a HUGE fan favorite.  

His All Star thing might be more of a toss-up, like a few other players in the draft.  

Probably a coin toss if a Wild Card group of Darius Bazley, Luka Samanic, Tacko Fall, Bol Bol, Dylan Windler, Tyler Herro, Matisse Thybulle, and Jalen Lecque outperforms the group of "top guys": Zion, Ja, RJ, Hunter, White, Garland, and Culver.  

Still think we need one more UPSIDE youngster even if Jaren and Ja both hit their ceiling.  More than likely we should trade Conley then, get an extra 1st rounder and swing for the fences.

If I were picking at 2/3/4/5 I would work out as many guys as possible.  Then either take the guy with your pick or trade up/down.  At 1?  I think I would low-key shop Zion.  His trade value is HUGE.

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14 minutes ago, costarica2 said:

Is all about putting tickets on the stands and Ja has that power and RJ does not.

As a Grizz fan I'm tired of not having a superstar or not even a STAR as I look at both players I think Morant has atleast a chance to be both.

RJ is Rudy Gay or Joe Johnson both are nice players but I'm NOT paying a ticket to go see them.

RJ is a shooting guard who can't shoot.  

Ja's floor is probably the best of Elliott Perry Meets J-Will Meets a really good small guy dunker (young Kenny Smith?).  That's still a guy you can build around.  

Either way we still would need a third guy to go with the Ja-Jaren combo.

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Is not about building for a championship  (it should be)To me is about putting a good fun  product on the floor.

Is Ja going to win us a ring??? probably not but neither does RJ.

 

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I don't follow college hoops anymore, but the arguments against Ja being from a crap school in a crap conference where the same arguments brought up for Steph Curry and Larry Bird, and probably other players that don't come to mind right now.

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4 minutes ago, Father Pat said:

I don't follow college hoops anymore, but the arguments against Ja being from a crap school in a crap conference where the same arguments brought up for Steph Curry and Larry Bird, and probably other players that don't come to mind right now.

True.

It's absurd as automatically slotting the Duke guys super high (Zion/RJ/Reddish).

I think the "under the radar" guys have more value this year.

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54 minutes ago, ALT GRIND said:

So the top 3 teams should trade down to 4?

Garland, Hunter, and Bol look as good as anyone.  If you only look at highlights then each could make a case for being the top pick.

I am not sure that even Zion will get multiple MVP awards (sometimes MVP awards are kinda random and odds are SOMEBODY in a draft class is a potential MVP pick), not even Kobe or Shaq won more than one.  It wouldn't shock me if Zion NEVER wins an MVP award.  

I think his "surefire" All Star thing is BS -- I can see him getting VOTED IN though.  Should be a HUGE fan favorite.  

His All Star thing might be more of a toss-up, like a few other players in the draft.  

Probably a coin toss if a Wild Card group of Darius Bazley, Luka Samanic, Tacko Fall, Bol Bol, Dylan Windler, Tyler Herro, Matisse Thybulle, and Jalen Lecque outperforms the group of "top guys": Zion, Ja, RJ, Hunter, White, Garland, and Culver.  

Still think we need one more UPSIDE youngster even if Jaren and Ja both hit their ceiling.  More than likely we should trade Conley then, get an extra 1st rounder and swing for the fences.

If I were picking at 2/3/4/5 I would work out as many guys as possible.  Then either take the guy with your pick or trade up/down.  At 1?  I think I would low-key shop Zion.  His trade value is HUGE.

Hugs not drugs....please choose the correct one before posting

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25 minutes ago, ALT GRIND said:

True.

It's absurd as automatically slotting the Duke guys super high (Zion/RJ/Reddish).

I think the "under the radar" guys have more value this year.

I prefer guys who have chips on their shoulders from the draft. Guys who expected to go higher and really want to prove everyone wrong. Donovan Mitchell was upset he dropped down to where he did.

In this draft I see RJ as that type of guy. RJ has repeatedly said he should go #1 and will prove it next season. He is still hungry and I live that in a rookie. 

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20 minutes ago, Ole Dirty Klondike said:

Hugs not drugs....please choose the correct one before posting

Zion has a ton of trade value.  

Garland/RJ/Ja are fairly similar with high ceilings and maybe shaky floors.  You gotta give these 3 the keys and see what happens. 

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3 players with similar stats coming out of college. Ja, Cam, Trae.

2 of those players played much easier schedules. 

But, also, Trae avg 5.2 TO a game in college as well. 

I think it can go either way, but I’m leaning towards him being a star. And Cam wasn’t bad. Injuries killed that. 

 

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