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Kevin B Moses

Analytics will someday make superstars a thing of the past and it's already happening

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5 hours ago, Zappastache said:

This has to be an all-time quote on these boards. 

LOVE it

thanks keep smoking 

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11 hours ago, lsugrizzfan said:

I agree that it cannot. But generally speaking, players without heart don't produce consistently. And analytics can read that. Also a player with heart and no talent doesn't help-analytics can read that as well.

how many first overall draft BUST have  there been 

Edited by lions

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34 minutes ago, lions said:

how many first overall draft BUST have  there been 

Here are the #1 overall pick busts of the last 20 years:

2017 - Fultz

2014 - Wiggins

2013 - Anthony Bennett

2007 - Oden

2006 - Bargnani

2001 - Kwame Brown

1998 - Michael Olowokandi

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4 hours ago, ACGrizz said:

Here are the #1 overall pick busts of the last 20 years:

2017 - Fultz

2014 - Wiggins

2013 - Anthony Bennett

2007 - Oden

2006 - Bargnani

2001 - Kwame Brown

1998 - Michael Olowokandi

G,M failed 35 percent

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59 minutes ago, ACGrizz said:

Here are the #1 overall pick busts of the last 20 years:

2017 - Fultz

2014 - Wiggins

2013 - Anthony Bennett

2007 - Oden

2006 - Bargnani

2001 - Kwame Brown

1998 - Michael Olowokandi

Yikes!

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1 hour ago, ACGrizz said:

Here are the #1 overall pick busts of the last 20 years:

2017 - Fultz

2014 - Wiggins

2013 - Anthony Bennett

2007 - Oden

2006 - Bargnani

2001 - Kwame Brown

1998 - Michael Olowokandi

And the "hits" include Dwight, Yao, Rose, and Blake -- a few really good guys. But some dudes who probably shouldn't even SNIFF a legit Hall of Fame.

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1 hour ago, ACGrizz said:

Here are the #1 overall pick busts of the last 20 years:

2017 - Fultz

2014 - Wiggins

2013 - Anthony Bennett

2007 - Oden

2006 - Bargnani

2001 - Kwame Brown

1998 - Michael Olowokandi

Fultz and Oden should not matter in this discussion because theirs are injury related. This started with whether or not analytics matter and whether or not they can measure heart. Both may have been good but for injuries, which analytics cannot foresee.

I am not sure how far analytics go back. I definitely had not heard of it as far back as 1998, doesn't mean NBA teams hadn't. Anyone else notice the earlier misses were all big men who only went first because they were big?

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On 4/22/2019 at 9:12 AM, lsugrizzfan said:

Some days I am convinced you are Chris Wallace.

If Wallace ever gets fired and KBM’s avatar is suddenly changed to something else. Then you’ll have your answer.

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1 hour ago, lsugrizzfan said:

Fultz and Oden should not matter in this discussion because theirs are injury related. This started with whether or not analytics matter and whether or not they can measure heart. Both may have been good but for injuries, which analytics cannot foresee.

I am not sure how far analytics go back. I definitely had not heard of it as far back as 1998, doesn't mean NBA teams hadn't. Anyone else notice the earlier misses were all big men who only went first because they were big?

Seems like there are more busts NOW (ever since the Tim Duncan draft).

LeBron and AD are kinda the only guys worth tanking for over the last several years (post Duncan).  Even Wall/Kyrie probably weren't tanking for.  Jury might still be out on KAT and Ayton.  

I think the pro game used to be simpler.  So college production translated. Especially with bigs.  

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2 hours ago, El Guapo said:

If Wallace ever gets fired and KBM’s avatar is suddenly changed to something else. Then you’ll have your answer.

I mean I'm just saying, people on this board act like the grizzlies have been the Washington generals or something. And how bad must it feel to be a Tampa Bay Lightning fan. I mean people act like it can't get any worse than what the grizzlies did, but Tampa Bay lost all of 16 games the freaking whole year and they get swept in the first round of the playoffs. Yeah it can get worse. 

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11 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

I mean I'm just saying, people on this board act like the grizzlies have been the Washington generals or something. And how bad must it feel to be a Tampa Bay Lightning fan. I mean people act like it can't get any worse than what the grizzlies did, but Tampa Bay lost all of 16 games the freaking whole year and they get swept in the first round of the playoffs. Yeah it can get worse. 

I don’t disagree. There are situations out there that are downright depressing. I’ll take playoff basketball and competing over a rudderless rebuild plan all day. I enjoyed the good days of the Wallace era, and not so much the missteps. In Wallace’s defense, who among us performs with a 100% success rate in their jobs? Things are what they are, as long as mistakes aren’t being repeated we should be fine.

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11 hours ago, ALT GRIND said:

Seems like there are more busts NOW (ever since the Tim Duncan draft).

LeBron and AD are kinda the only guys worth tanking for over the last several years (post Duncan).  Even Wall/Kyrie probably weren't tanking for.  Jury might still be out on KAT and Ayton.  

I think the pro game used to be simpler.  So college production translated. Especially with bigs.  

Wow, you just listed four guys, three of which have been all NBA and the fourth a 20 year old rookie who just averaged 16/10 on 58% shooting while improving his biggest weakness (defense) drastically as the season went on. Your definition of busts is quite harsh. You do realize there are only so many LeBrons and Tim Duncans in the world right? 

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3 hours ago, lsugrizzfan said:

Wow, you just listed four guys, three of which have been all NBA and the fourth a 20 year old rookie who just averaged 16/10 on 58% shooting while improving his biggest weakness (defense) drastically as the season went on. Your definition of busts is quite harsh. You do realize there are only so many LeBrons and Tim Duncans in the world right? 

Those guys I just listed aren't busts -- but nor are they guys worth tanking for.  And I raise you a Kenyon Martin and an Andrew Bogut.  Two more guys who aren't gonna sniff the HOF but we're possibly better fits/role players on title teams or runners-up.

I will have to look but this might be one of the WORST 20 year stretches for number 1 picks in NBA history -- and it includes LeBron who might be the BEST number one pick in NBA history. 

So, drafting is hard. Even at 1.  2 and even 3 might have as much upside but maybe with more value (lower cost/lower buzz/lower expectations).

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Who are some of the top analytics free agents out there?

I think we are all capped out but if we trade Conley then maybe we will have some spending money.

No matter what happens, I wouldn't mind making a run at the playoffs next season.

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4 hours ago, lsugrizzfan said:

Wow, you just listed four guys, three of which have been all NBA and the fourth a 20 year old rookie who just averaged 16/10 on 58% shooting while improving his biggest weakness (defense) drastically as the season went on. Your definition of busts is quite harsh. You do realize there are only so many LeBrons and Tim Duncans in the world right? 

20 years of drafts is basically 1/3 of the NBA's history.  Or, at least the draft's history.  

ONE legit first ballot Hall of Famer in 20 years ain't good odds.  

Then, the next top guys are like AD, KAT, Wall, Kyrie, Blake, and D Rose.

So, one "Mount Rushmore" type and several top-tier All Stars.  That's really not a very good batting average.

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37 minutes ago, ALT GRIND said:

20 years of drafts is basically 1/3 of the NBA's history.  Or, at least the draft's history.  

ONE legit first ballot Hall of Famer in 20 years ain't good odds.  

Then, the next top guys are like AD, KAT, Wall, Kyrie, Blake, and D Rose.

So, one "Mount Rushmore" type and several top-tier All Stars.  That's really not a very good batting average.

Rose was the NBA's youngest MVP, jury is out on Ayton and Simmons, Dwight Howard was dominant in his peak and almost led his team to a championship and Yao was also a transcendent talent who unfortunately had his career derailed by injuries. I think the first overall pick still has quite a number of franchise-altering players over the last 20 years.

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39 minutes ago, ALT GRIND said:

20 years of drafts is basically 1/3 of the NBA's history.  Or, at least the draft's history.  

ONE legit first ballot Hall of Famer in 20 years ain't good odds.  

Then, the next top guys are like AD, KAT, Wall, Kyrie, Blake, and D Rose.

So, one "Mount Rushmore" type and several top-tier All Stars.  That's really not a very good batting average.

1979 to 1997 is absolutely stacked (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NBA_draft_picks)

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2 minutes ago, ACGrizz said:

Yeah I saw that too.  Before 1979 was kinda hit or miss.  Although lots of top HOF types. But definitely some busts in there.  

If you look at round number years 2000 was bad.  2020 looks ok but I am not too sold on it.  1980 was bad.  Although 1960 probably had the best 1-2 punch in draft history (Oscar Robertson/Jerry West).  

Hopefully the top pick picks back up again (relatively speaking).

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17 hours ago, ALT GRIND said:

Seems like there are more busts NOW (ever since the Tim Duncan draft).

LeBron and AD are kinda the only guys worth tanking for over the last several years (post Duncan).  Even Wall/Kyrie probably weren't tanking for.  Jury might still be out on KAT and Ayton.  

I think the pro game used to be simpler.  So college production translated. Especially with bigs.  

 

41 minutes ago, ACGrizz said:

I went back to the first post. I disagree with describing them as busts. But I think you are onto something in that they are not as guaranteed as in the past. I wonder how much of this is we no longer get multiple years of college to see which players are legit and which are not.

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1 hour ago, lsugrizzfan said:

 

I went back to the first post. I disagree with describing them as busts. But I think you are onto something in that they are not as guaranteed as in the past. I wonder how much of this is we no longer get multiple years of college to see which players are legit and which are not.

If you look at the flipside though, some of those late 1990s/early 2000s drafts had a lot of very unproven high school players and international prospects. The evolution of international scouting and the 1-year out of high school requirement has lessened busts from that pool of players.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_NBA_draft - 4 high schoolers in the top 10, ranging from horrific busts to a serviceable players that probably don't warrant the high pick (Chandler).

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2 hours ago, ACGrizz said:

If you look at the flipside though, some of those late 1990s/early 2000s drafts had a lot of very unproven high school players and international prospects. The evolution of international scouting and the 1-year out of high school requirement has lessened busts from that pool of players.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_NBA_draft - 4 high schoolers in the top 10, ranging from horrific busts to a serviceable players that probably don't warrant the high pick (Chandler).

I agree. That is part of the reason why I wondered why the NBA would want to do away with that rule. It is very helpful in scouting. Josh Selby might have been a lottery pick out of high school, was a second rounder after one year of college, and out of the league in no time.

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57 minutes ago, lsugrizzfan said:

I agree. That is part of the reason why I wondered why the NBA would want to do away with that rule. It is very helpful in scouting. Josh Selby might have been a lottery pick out of high school, was a second rounder after one year of college, and out of the league in no time.

I would think that if a legit number one pick hasn't been identified by high school then that upcoming draft is gonna be trouble.  LeBron, Kareem, and Wilt would have been number one picks out of high school.  I am assuming most of Oscar Robertson, James Worthy, David Thompson, Bill Walton, Ralph Sampson, and Shaq would have been solid favorites to be number one picks at some point in their high school career.  Olajuwon was probably a top guy as soon as he got to the airport.  I will give you David Robinson as a late bloomer.  And Duncan.  Not sure about Magic.... Zion is probably an anomaly: a top 3-5 guy in high school who shot up to number one in the draft after a few games at Duke.  In the other drafts, the longer it takes to identify a top dog, the more of a gamble the top pick will be.  

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It might be a red flag for next year if Wiseman, Anthony Edwards, or Cole Anthony (or someone else) can't establish himself as an odds-on front runner to be the number one pick.  

Ok, maybe we get 3 or 4 legit superstars at the top of next year's draft.  You still shoot for the athletic big man (James Wiseman) right?

The more all of us draftniks have to talk ourselves into a Wiseman or a Cole Anthony or someone else as the top pick in 2020 the bigger red flag it is gonna be.

At best it might point to 2020 being a trade down draft. 

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14 hours ago, ALT GRIND said:

I would think that if a legit number one pick hasn't been identified by high school then that upcoming draft is gonna be trouble.  LeBron, Kareem, and Wilt would have been number one picks out of high school.  I am assuming most of Oscar Robertson, James Worthy, David Thompson, Bill Walton, Ralph Sampson, and Shaq would have been solid favorites to be number one picks at some point in their high school career.  Olajuwon was probably a top guy as soon as he got to the airport.  I will give you David Robinson as a late bloomer.  And Duncan.  Not sure about Magic.... Zion is probably an anomaly: a top 3-5 guy in high school who shot up to number one in the draft after a few games at Duke.  In the other drafts, the longer it takes to identify a top dog, the more of a gamble the top pick will be.  

I am an LSU fan and was going to tell you Shaq wasn't even the most hyped big man at LSU at the time; Stanley Roberts was. However, a little digging shows Stanley was a year earlier and didn't play his freshman year, which is why it appeared he and Shaq arrived at the same time.

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