Kevin B Moses

The grizzlies need to go ahead and shut it down

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The pelicans are tanking hard, and there is no room for error at this point. And who knows the grizzlies might actually win the lottery. But at this point I would just evaluate, evaluate. No sense trying to be a hero.

It shouldn't be that hard. Our schedule is murderous with games against playoff contenders everywhere. The key will be those two dallas games. How successful our tank job is will be there.

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37 minutes ago, russian grizzly said:

What is the point in tanking this season? To increase our chances to get Zion by 5%? 

Exactly. Asinine strategy by KBM.

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Are there any other Zions in the upcoming drafts?   Where there any other Zions in the past 10?    We are  basically punting on the one shot to get a generational player for the potential to get who in a later? 

Can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket. 

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The Grizzlies aren't going to mortgage the future of the franchise on the hope they get a 15% chance at the top pick. The Grizzlies have punched their ticket to the lottery. The only question is will it be their pick AFTER the lottery?

Right now the Grizzlies have basically no chance to give the pick to Boston (less than 4%). If they pass the Mavericks then the odds increase to over 14%. Still not good but improving. If they can pass New Orleans then the odds improve to nearly 40%.

The losses to the Hawks and Wizards hurt the chance of getting to 9th place in the lottery which is the ideal situation. However the Grizzlies are just two games behind the Wizards in the standings and only three games behind the Lakers. The problem is New Orleans has a ridiculously easy schedule heading down the stretch. They only play four teams shooting for the playoffs down the stretch. It would take an incredible tank job against other teams also trying to tank. 

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6 minutes ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

Are there any other Zions in the upcoming drafts?   Where there any other Zions in the past 10?    We are  basically punting on the one shot to get a generational player for the potential to get who in a later? 

Can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket. 

No one questions that. But I would argue that we`ve already bought a ticket. Now we are discussing a 5% chance increase to get Zion. My concern is that we pay too much for this chance - I mean a decrease in Mike`s value, the team chemistry, fans` trust and etc. In addition, while this 5% chance seems tangible on paper, it is in nature similar to your chance to win a lotto max.

Having said all the above, I`d prefer this team fighting no matter what and against whom than gambling on chances to get Zion. 

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4 minutes ago, russian grizzly said:

No one questions that. But I would argue that we`ve already bought a ticket. Now we are discussing a 5% chance increase to get Zion. My concern is that we pay too much for this chance - I mean a decrease in Mike`s value, the team chemistry, fans` trust and etc. In addition, while this 5% chance seems tangible on paper, it is in nature similar to your chance to win a lotto max.

Having said all the above, I`d prefer this team fighting no matter what and against whom than gambling on chances to get Zion. 

How do you know they aren't doing both?   Its not like the FO will ever openly announce they are tanking.    

I just can't help but notice:  JB still the coach,  Parsons getting minutes, Jaren sitting when he can play, and Kyle has mysterious shoulder issue after playing his best stint of bball as a Grizz.   

Tanking is rarely done by the coach and players iTs usually manipulated by the FO.  

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Grizzlies still have a good shot for 9th worst. We are tied in the loss column with N.O. and although their schedule may not appear all that tough, it is harder than first glance. They have 2 more games against SacTown. Hield went off for 28 in their first meeting (a Sac win) and I'd imagine he will like to inflict more pain on his old team. N.O. can easily drop 5 or more games from here on out. Grizzlies last game is against the Warriors. Sounds bad but could be great. If Golden State is a lock for first in the West before that game, Kerr will rest his starters, or at least give them minimum minutes. This game might be very winnable. 

Anyway, right now the F.O. is doing a crappy job at tanking and a crappy job at trying to get to 9th worst, which doesn't surprise me in the least. We still have a legit shot at 9th worst so I hope they go for it.

EDIT: Lakers have a tough schedule as well. They could easily fall to next to last in the West at seasons end.

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2 hours ago, chipc3 said:

The Grizzlies aren't going to mortgage the future of the franchise on the hope they get a 15% chance at the top pick. The Grizzlies have punched their ticket to the lottery. The only question is will it be their pick AFTER the lottery?

Right now the Grizzlies have basically no chance to give the pick to Boston (less than 4%). If they pass the Mavericks then the odds increase to over 14%. Still not good but improving. If they can pass New Orleans then the odds improve to nearly 40%.

The losses to the Hawks and Wizards hurt the chance of getting to 9th place in the lottery which is the ideal situation. However the Grizzlies are just two games behind the Wizards in the standings and only three games behind the Lakers. The problem is New Orleans has a ridiculously easy schedule heading down the stretch. They only play four teams shooting for the playoffs down the stretch. It would take an incredible tank job against other teams also trying to tank. 

After what went down the other night against Phoenix, I'm sure it won't be too hard to pass the Pels. They're tanking hard;

https://streamable.com/ddw37

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Anderson was supposed to have been available to play when all the trades were made and left the Grizzlies short for a couple of days.

I can't believe Jaren has a "season ending" injury after playing ASG with no evidence he got injured during that game.

They are tanking. They are evaluating the new guys, and particularly giving their priority to rehabbing Chancre Pegleg so they can get some trade deal done. Hopefully he can manage to play like he did the other night on a regular basis so that we can ask for more than just a bag of Doritos

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1 hour ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

How do you know they aren't doing both?   Its not like the FO will ever openly announce they are tanking.    

I just can't help but notice:  JB still the coach,  Parsons getting minutes, Jaren sitting when he can play, and Kyle has mysterious shoulder issue after playing his best stint of bball as a Grizz.   

Tanking is rarely done by the coach and players iTs usually manipulated by the FO.  

Legitimate points made you above 😎

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4 minutes ago, BigHunkALove said:

Anderson was supposed to have been available to play when all the trades were made and left the Grizzlies short for a couple of days.

I can't believe Jaren has a "season ending" injury after playing ASG with no evidence he got injured during that game.

They are tanking. They are evaluating the new guys, and particularly giving their priority to rehabbing Chancre Pegleg so they can get some trade deal done. Hopefully he can manage to play like he did the other night on a regular basis so that we can ask for more than just a bag of Doritos

Aligned

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6 hours ago, gentlemanquartely said:

you saying maybe we should sit mike for the remainder of season?. i'm all for wright and Dorsey getting extended minutes at this point.  Bruno needs as much burn as possible.  

That would make a TON of sense. I would support this and see what we have. 

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4 hours ago, Father Pat said:

... right now the F.O. is doing a crappy job at tanking and a crappy job at trying to get to 9th worst, which doesn't surprise me in the least. 

 

🤗

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7 hours ago, Father Pat said:

 

Anyway, right now the F.O. is doing a crappy job at tanking and a crappy job at trying to get to 9th worst, which doesn't surprise me in the least. We still have a legit shot at 9th worst so I hope they go for it.

.

The FO is doing a crappy job in all parts...

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I want to see Yuta get some playing time.  I think he's already better than Bruno.  He's certainly smarter.

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16 hours ago, cdp said:

After what went down the other night against Phoenix, I'm sure it won't be too hard to pass the Pels. They're tanking hard;

https://streamable.com/ddw37

The Pels just defeated Dallas in OT. 

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I can’t understand not wanting to get to pick this year. So people say it’s a weak draft, next year could be too. We have sucked most of the year, injuries have taken their toll. I’m generally an optimist, and think next year is always better, so why not pick a top 8 guy, rather than let’s say a top 20 guy next year. Or why give Boston a 9th pick, rather than a 16th next year? Maybe one year we actually get lucky and jump up to 3rd even, I’d be real happy with R.J., Cam, or maybe the Murray St. guy.

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1 hour ago, Jetfixer said:

I can’t understand not wanting to get to pick this year. So people say it’s a weak draft, next year could be too. We have sucked most of the year, injuries have taken their toll. I’m generally an optimist, and think next year is always better, so why not pick a top 8 guy, rather than let’s say a top 20 guy next year. Or why give Boston a 9th pick, rather than a 16th next year? Maybe one year we actually get lucky and jump up to 3rd even, I’d be real happy with R.J., Cam, or maybe the Murray St. guy.

I understand your thought process and I don't have a problem with this way of thinking. However, the team has made it clear they want to get out of this obligation, there is no guarantee the team will be drafting higher next season especially if the team trades Mike Conley which they have made clear was their intention at the trade deadline and the "experts" say this is a much weaker looking draft than next season's. I'm not saying these "experts" are correct but that is what most of the posters are basing their thoughts on. 

Since the Grizzlies are officially eliminated from the playoffs now, if the team jumps up into the top 4 they won't be giving the pick to Boston this year. The only way the team has to give up the pick is if it is below the 8th pick. 

https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/nba/grizzlies/2019/03/15/how-grizzlies-vs-wizards-crucial-memphis-hopes-conveying/3112384002/

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Apparently the best outcome for us is to get to 9th worst. The next best should be the 8th worst since we would have almost 65.5% of either conveying the pick or get a top 4 pick. At 7th worst, which IMO is the 3rd best and a very likely outcome, we would have a 48.4% chance of either conveying the pick or get the top 4 pick. So it’s about a 50-50 chance. Getting the 6th worst record is the worst of all with only a 39%. The chance of getting stuck with a #6-8 pick is 61%, which means we most likely will end up with a mediocre pick.

What I am hoping is we should at least get past Dallas if not both Dallas and Washington to avoid the 6th worst record. If we are lucky, we would get the #1 pick to draft Zion regardless of a 6, 7 or 8th worst record. What we can control now is to win as many games as we can to avoid the worst outcome which is getting a #6-8 pick in this draft and having to worry about conveying the pick next year or more likely in 2021. Let’s face it, we are going to be a 20 something or 30 something wins team in the next 2-3 years, so just convey the pick this year and get it over with and start the rebuilding this summer.

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37 minutes ago, Grizball said:

Apparently the best outcome for us is to get to 9th worst. The next best should be the 8th worst since we would have almost 65.5% of either conveying the pick or get a top 4 pick. At 7th worst, which IMO is the 3rd best and a very likely outcome, we would have a 48.4% chance of either conveying the pick or get the top 4 pick. So it’s about a 50-50 chance. Getting the 6th worst record is the worst of all with only a 39%. The chance of getting stuck with a #6-8 pick is 61%, which means we most likely will end up with a mediocre pick.

What I am hoping is we should at least get past Dallas if not both Dallas and Washington to avoid the 6th worst record. If we are lucky, we would get the #1 pick to draft Zion regardless of a 6, 7 or 8th worst record. What we can control now is to win as many games as we can to avoid the worst outcome which is getting a #6-8 pick in this draft and having to worry about conveying the pick next year or more likely in 2021. Let’s face it, we are going to be a 20 something or 30 something wins team in the next 2-3 years, so just convey the pick this year and get it over with and start the rebuilding this summer.

This post makes too much sense for a few of the experts on this board to comprehend.

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4 hours ago, Jetfixer said:

I can’t understand not wanting to get to pick this year. So people say it’s a weak draft, next year could be too. We have sucked most of the year, injuries have taken their toll. I’m generally an optimist, and think next year is always better, so why not pick a top 8 guy, rather than let’s say a top 20 guy next year. Or why give Boston a 9th pick, rather than a 16th next year? Maybe one year we actually get lucky and jump up to 3rd even, I’d be real happy with R.J., Cam, or maybe the Murray St. guy.

I think the "top" of this draft is good -- Zion is all world.  

Ok, some say Zion might bust.  SO?  ANYBODY can bust.  And if Zion flat-out busts then the league will go out of business before our lease runs out.

Top 4ish looks good.

Not sold on next year although James Wiseman can dunk, put up stats, run the floor (when motivated), and sell tickets.  Although there are some centers from the 2018 draft who still might have some more upsides.  Oh, and big men REALLY scare me in the Brave New New NBA.

Bottom line: A GREAT year to land the number 1 pick, above average year for a top 3/4 pick, and a good year to trade down, too, for teams stuck in the 6-10 range.

This year is a better year to get a core piece -- in 2020 we can get a final rotation guy.

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Half the team is already shut down. I don't blame the rest of the team trying to win. I'm fine if they do and fine if they don't. I just want to enjoy watching for the rest of the season and hopefully see some of the youngins get better. 

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