CoolHandGriz

New plan moving forward...

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Look I was all about #playtoconvey too but let's be honest here - the Griz aren't going to play themselves out of the Top 8. Recent injuries and sheer suckdom have made that abundantly clear.

I'm thinking the best case scenario at this point is:

1) Start tanking to try and catch Atlanta in the 5 hole (won't make much of a difference in lotto percentages but every bit helps and hey it's a new goal)

2) Hope for a top 4 pick since those seem to be the surest things in the draft (Zion, RJ, Ja, Cam)

3) Focus on getting our young core of JJJ, Dillon and Kyle fully healthy again and be patient with Parsons's contract so it will finally be an asset at the deadline next year then EITHER..

4A) Keep Conley next year and hope Jonas opts in in order to convey the pick in 2020 (Top 6 protected) and be ready for the potential stud class in 2021 OR

4B) Trade Conley before this year's draft for another 1st and/or young assets and hope Jonas opts out so we can start the rebuild fresh and potentially get Wiseman or another stud in 2020

This is where things get a little fuzzy for me. On one side I say start putting young pieces around JJJ sooner rather than later so they can start gelling together. The other side says get this Boston pick out of the dang way asap to eliminate uncertainty. Tough call.

What do yall think?

 

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I think we should play to win, and whatever happens with the pick is up to the players. I'd rather not go tank mode, and risk the young guys developing a mentality that winning isn't the priority, and if they lose, then the team can just tank for a high pick, and try again next year.

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9 minutes ago, sativa417 said:

I think we should play to win, and whatever happens with the pick is up to the players. I'd rather not go tank mode, and risk the young guys developing a mentality that winning isn't the priority, and if they lose, then the team can just tank for a high pick, and try again next year.

I’d say this will probably be the FO’s mindset. I admit tanking doesn’t gain you much at this point in the season but I certainly wouldn’t be putting our young pieces out there if they’re not completely healthy. 

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They aren't catching Atlanta.

If the Grizzlies get within 2 games if Atlanta, they will go in tank mode too to keep that position. 

 

I think the convey the pick is truly the 2nd preference with winning a top 4 pick in lottery the desired outcome, but at this point it is a ping pong ball issue. Keeping JJJ healthy is more important than conveying the pick.

 

If they can get to 8th, there still is a good chance they convey the pick.

 

Just play the games and see what you have for off season decisions.

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1 hour ago, Grizzled Vet said:

They aren't catching Atlanta.

If the Grizzlies get within 2 games if Atlanta, they will go in tank mode too to keep that position. 

 

I think the convey the pick is truly the 2nd preference with winning a top 4 pick in lottery the desired outcome, but at this point it is a ping pong ball issue. Keeping JJJ healthy is more important than conveying the pick.

 

If they can get to 8th, there still is a good chance they convey the pick.

 

Just play the games and see what you have for off season decisions.

Good points but what to do about Conley? Suppose a lot of that depends on the ping pong balls as well. So much uncertainty.

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I think we go big on draft night one way or the other.

If we get Zion then only trade Conley if we get a good deal. Otherwise make a run at the playoffs.  Picking up a good MLE guy would help. 

If we wind up at 2 or 3 or in the 6-8 range go BPA then trade Conley for hopefully a decent player and a mid-first rounder and hopefully a future 1st.  Or another late first this year.  And, buy an extra second rounder even if we get 56 from Boston.  I wanna draft an "upside sleeper" pick, a 2 way guy, and an import draft/stash in the 2nd round.  Hopefully we can finish 90% of the rebuild by draft night.  Let's have most of our future Core in place with at least 2 first rounders, 3 second round picks, and an MLE "young vet" plus another promising young player in a Conley trade to go along with Jaren/Bruno/Ivan/Kyle/Dillon aka the Grit/Grind Boy Band.  

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If get Zion or RJ, this franchise will be just fine, but even if we get Culver. We could try to move Parsons for Holiday + 2nd round pick, like someone suggested, then get a forwand with the MLE (I would get crazy if we sign one of the Morris brothers, special Marcus). I would get a guard with MLE if we get Zion.

 

In the worst scenario

MC/Delon/Carter

Holiday/Culver/Bradley

SlowMo/Dillon/Holiday

Jaren/MLE/Yuta/2way

JV/Rabb/Noah

 

 

Best case scenario 1

MC/Delon/Carter

RJ/Holiday/Bradley

SlowMo/Dillon/Holiday

Jaren/MLE/Yuta/2way

JV/Rabb/Noah

 

Best case scenario 2

MC/Delon/Carter 

Holiday/MLE/Bradley

SlowMo/Dillon/Holiday

Zion/Rabb/Yuta/2way

Jaren/JV/Noah

 

That is enought to make the Playoffs next year and convey the pick to Boston.

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4 hours ago, CoolHandGriz said:

Look I was all about #playtoconvey too but let's be honest here - the Griz aren't going to play themselves out of the Top 8. Recent injuries and sheer suckdom have made that abundantly clear.

I'm thinking the best case scenario at this point is:

1) Start tanking to try and catch Atlanta in the 5 hole (won't make much of a difference in lotto percentages but every bit helps and hey it's a new goal)

2) Hope for a top 4 pick since those seem to be the surest things in the draft (Zion, RJ, Ja, Cam)

3) Focus on getting our young core of JJJ, Dillon and Kyle fully healthy again and be patient with Parsons's contract so it will finally be an asset at the deadline next year then EITHER..

4A) Keep Conley next year and hope Jonas opts in in order to convey the pick in 2020 (Top 6 protected) and be ready for the potential stud class in 2021 OR

4B) Trade Conley before this year's draft for another 1st and/or young assets and hope Jonas opts out so we can start the rebuild fresh and potentially get Wiseman or another stud in 2020

This is where things get a little fuzzy for me. On one side I say start putting young pieces around JJJ sooner rather than later so they can start gelling together. The other side says get this Boston pick out of the dang way asap to eliminate uncertainty. Tough call.

What do yall think?

 

We won't be able to achieve #1 no matter how bad we are.

#2 is gonna require a bigger fluke than winning the lottery. With the way our luck runs, what chances do you think that will happen???

#3, I wouldn't be calling Dillon as a core player, they should have traded him for Oubre, and they need to keep thinking about trading him, but with his injury he has lost value. We are stuck with Chancre and the dysfunctionality he has brought and continues to bring, because it's all about he, him, himself. I'd be seriously looking at keeping Bradley and trying to move everyone else we've acquired this season in trades.

#4b is the more likely because I reckon Val will opt out, but with this draft, do we really wanna move Mike for the talent level in this draft? Anyway the Kyrie/Kemba dance needs to play itself out, Celtics or Knicks may end up being an additional suitor.  

The clock is ticking on surrounding Jaren with decent talent so he won't leave when his contract is up. Unless we get a run of rolling 7s, the outlook is worse than this time last year.

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they should do the opposite of everything they think is a good idea . throw tons of money at Jerry WEst / Connely / Sean marks . this new plan should have been the plan starting last year . 

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2 hours ago, CoolHandGriz said:

Good points but what to do about Conley? Suppose a lot of that depends on the ping pong balls as well. So much uncertainty.

 

I think with Conley it all depends on what the deals are.  I wouldn't trade him for 2 late first round picks and bench players.  There has to be young talent that is starter level quality coming back and other 1st rounders.

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34 minutes ago, toocoolkellz said:

Honestly we will probably end up at around 6th. Get us a wing and trade mike for a mid to late first rounder. 

I think we finish in 6th and draft 7th.  If the Grizzlies finish 6th, the odds are actually higher that they work into the top 4 than actually pick 6th.  

Finishing 6th odds (according to Tankathon)

37.2% in the top 4 spots

(impossible to pick 5th)

8.6% to pick 6th

29.8% to pick 7th

 

IF they can get to #8, there is a greater likelihood they convey the pick (39%)  then picking #8 (34.5%).

Clearly though, nobody wants to be at #8 or #7, which is what I think happens.

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5 minutes ago, Grizzled Vet said:

I think we finish in 6th and draft 7th.  If the Grizzlies finish 6th, the odds are actually higher that they work into the top 4 than actually pick 6th.  

Finishing 6th odds (according to Tankathon)

37.2% in the top 4 spots

(impossible to pick 5th)

8.6% to pick 6th

29.8% to pick 7th

 

IF they can get to #8, there is a greater likelihood they convey the pick (39%)  then picking #8 (34.5%).

Clearly though, nobody wants to be at #8 or #7, which is what I think happens.

With our luck I always assume the worst 

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4 hours ago, toocoolkellz said:

With our luck I always assume the worst 

yeah the ping pong ball will come up #1, then explode and they'll have to do a do-over...

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10 hours ago, sativa417 said:

I think we should play to win, and whatever happens with the pick is up to the players. I'd rather not go tank mode, and risk the young guys developing a mentality that winning isn't the priority, and if they lose, then the team can just tank for a high pick, and try again next year.

That losing mentality can quickly turn into a culture that could haunt the franchise for a very long time.

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6 hours ago, Once_a_hater said:

If get Zion or RJ, this franchise will be just fine, but even if we get Culver. We could try to move Parsons for Holiday + 2nd round pick, like someone suggested, then get a forwand with the MLE (I would get crazy if we sign one of the Morris brothers, special Marcus). I would get a guard with MLE if we get Zion.

 

In the worst scenario

MC/Delon/Carter

Holiday/Culver/Bradley

SlowMo/Dillon/Holiday

Jaren/MLE/Yuta/2way

JV/Rabb/Noah

 

 

Best case scenario 1

MC/Delon/Carter

RJ/Holiday/Bradley

SlowMo/Dillon/Holiday

Jaren/MLE/Yuta/2way

JV/Rabb/Noah

 

Best case scenario 2

MC/Delon/Carter 

Holiday/MLE/Bradley

SlowMo/Dillon/Holiday

Zion/Rabb/Yuta/2way

Jaren/JV/Noah

 

That is enought to make the Playoffs next year and convey the pick to Boston.

You don't seem to like your fellow countryman very much.  You totally left him off, and he is far more likely to play PF than Yuta who is a SG/SF.

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6 hours ago, Grizzled Vet said:

 

I think with Conley it all depends on what the deals are.  I wouldn't trade him for 2 late first round picks and bench players.  There has to be young talent that is starter level quality coming back and other 1st rounders.

You're not going to get that for him unless Fix goes nuts, if he is still there.

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First thing you need to realize is there is only one core member: Jaren. 

Dillon and Kyle ain’t a consideration in team building.

No plans can be made until after the lottery. 

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We can't lose enough to get a better pick, we can't win enough to convey. I have no idea what we do. Obviously if we do convey, then trade Conley immediately. If we don't, heck I don't know what we do. Keep him and try to convey next year I guess. We have to at least try to get something for Parsons. Look what the Kings did this year, they got Harrison Barnes for nothing essentially. I'd guess I'd rather not convey, keep all our vets (JV, Anderson, Bradley, even Noah for depth), and trade Parsons for whatever we can get. 

We'd have some good young guys with JJJ, Dillon, and whoever we get with a top 8 pick (hopefully RJ Barrett). Maybe Carter and Rabb as well if they improve. Some decent role player vets with Delon, JV, Anderson, and MLE. And hopefully Mike and whoever we can get for Parsons (Love, Jrue Holiday, 2 Miami players, Gallinari, heck maybe even Blake Griffin if that experiment goes south.)

I'd like to try and acquire Love. He'd fit well with Jaren, as he makes up for Jaren's biggest weakness (rebounding) while Jaren can cover Love's biggest weakness (defense). Both can score inside and outside. 

Or we just wait out the Parsons contract, get our pick this year, try to sign Jaylen Brown or Brandon Ingram, get whoever we can get for Conley, maybe try to get Mudiay this year. Our young core could then be JJJ, Brown, 2019 lottery pick, Mudiay, Rabb, Carter, Brooks, Bruno. Not a bad start at least. 

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JJJ and Kyle are done for the season I think, so, we can win maybe 4-5 games. if you lose to Cleveland against a team in full tank mode, I mean...talking about convey the pick is kinda sci-fi.

Conley was put on the trade block for two months and his buddy Marc is gone. He's a professional and he's playing seriously but I think it makes no sense to keep him here next year for another 30-52 or something like that season.

Next year: try to re-sign JV, keep Bradley and Noah, plus JJJ, Kyle, Dillon, Rabb, what they give us for mike (a PG?) and hope for a bit of luck (one time...) in the lottery. Then, try to find six teams worst than us next year.

Ah, possibly with a new GM and a new coach. 

 

 

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7 hours ago, smit-tay griz said:

You don't seem to like your fellow countryman very much.  You totally left him off, and he is far more likely to play PF than Yuta who is a SG/SF.

I really forgot about him. I like Caboclo, he is a hard worker, I hope he becomes at least a role player. With his age and knowing how raw he was we he came to the league he has a chance to become a 3&D if everything goes well .

But I have high hopes for Yuta, higher than for Bruno, Yuta can really handle the ball for his size and and Im confident he will be a good shooter and defender too.

If we had a good GM we would have sign both long term and cheap, with the option to match others teams offers when their contract expires. 

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I mean no disrespect, but many of you are completely out of touch with reality when it comes to what makes sense in a trade for Mike Conley.

 

Why trade Conley for a mid first in this draft? Guys like Nazr Reid (LSU) are mid 1st this year and are beyond garbage.  The only way it makes sense to trade Conley during the draft is if 1.) a legit starting PG is coming back (L. Ball for example from LA), or 2.) we draft Ja Morant. 

 

As far as our pick. If we get the #1 and draft Zion which some believe is the "best case scenario" then where does that leave JJJ? Forget that question for now because this is Memphis so we will get the 6, 7, or 8. Right there you are looking at Culver (Texas Tech) or KZ Okpala or Romeo Langford as guys that make sense, you know because our current SGs suck. 

 

So to answer the OP - you play to win games, if possible. You do not build a losing culture. You bring back an experienced PG to go along with a hopefully developed group next year. You draft the BPA. In this case I believe the BPA will coincide with our weakness position - wing shooter. 

 

 

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I guess I'm in the minority. I would like to KEEP JV and maybe Bradley. I still want some young vets on the team. Jaylen Brown would be my #1 target for Parsons expiring. If not Brown then Gary Harris is my next man up. Get what we can for Mike. I would look at the Bucks to see if I could squeeze Brogdon & Snell out of them. Or Rozier from Boston.

Brogdon or Rozier/ Carter/vet                Brown or Gary Harris/Dillon      Kyle/Snell/Bruno                                      J13/Rabb                                                  JV/Noah 

Fill the rest of the roster with our pick if we didnt convey it and a cpl of vets.

I would really like a backup pg like VanFleet or Corey Joseph.

Maybe Jabari Parker would be a cheap option now at the 3/4 spot

 

 

 

    

 

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