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Kevin B Moses

Avoiding the lottery strategy, and other topics about Mike Conley and the rebuild

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1 minute ago, Dwash said:

ok

Look man, I'm fine with us trying to give the pick this season, and I understand that we are likely to get worse before getting better and therefore would like to have our own pick during those seasons, but I am just skeptical of there being generational talents in these upcoming drafts.  We'll see.

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1 hour ago, Dwash said:

A team in as bad of shape as the Grizzlies should not have unprotected picks out there no matter what you sit around and pray that they can build in two years. Plus 2020 alone is a monster high school class. Dont know what else there is to say about that.

The idea is that you give this pick up then try to get a good pick for Mike Conley. That is your pick this year and then you go from there.

The point is that people are acting like the grizzlies are going to give up lebron james in 2021, which is so overboard I have no understanding of it.

If the grizzlies are so bad that they get the #1 pick in 2021 then they need to contract from the league, they are terrible.  

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33 minutes ago, Dwash said:

No, its not just about "apperance." Silliness. We want to actually have that generational talent on our team. Both playoff runs so far was missing a superstar piece that could have been had in 2003 and 2009. Arent you tired of that? If you arent picking at the top of this draft there are superstar level talents to be had.

That is not true. The grizzlies could have won the championship in 2014. To act like it was a talent issue is a misrepresentation of facts. Not only that, the grizzlies had Rudy, along with Zach and Mike and Marc were 3 and 4. So why did we not keep Rudy? Because small market team syndrome. The grizzlies instead of going for the championship decided to cut costs.

I don't see how that will change this go around either. But the idea that the grizzlies have to render a top 9 pick this year or our entire world will end is dumb.

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28 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

That is not true. The grizzlies could have won the championship in 2014. To act like it was a talent issue is a misrepresentation of facts. Not only that, the grizzlies had Rudy, along with Zach and Mike and Marc were 3 and 4. So why did we not keep Rudy? Because small market team syndrome. The grizzlies instead of going for the championship decided to cut costs.

I don't see how that will change this go around either. But the idea that the grizzlies have to render a top 9 pick this year or our entire world will end is dumb.

Wow they had one year you think they had a chance which happens to be the year everyone said was a fluke for GSW cause so many people were hurt.  And saying they would have won the title is highly debateable still.

No way could they have used a James Harden in the last decade cause you know they had one year where they "coulda" won it.  That one year means talent was never issue. Good point cant believe I couldnt see that.

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39 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

The point is that people are acting like the grizzlies are going to give up lebron james in 2021, which is so overboard I have no understanding of it.

If the grizzlies are so bad that they get the #1 pick in 2021 then they need to contract from the league, they are terrible.  

You really willing to take the chance? The possibility of it alone is worth moving the pick now.  What's your choice of action? 

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21 minutes ago, Dwash said:

Wow they had one year you think they had a chance which happens to be the year everyone said was a fluke for GSW cause so many people were hurt.  And saying they would have won the title is highly debateable still.

No way could they have used a James Harden in the last decade cause you know they had one year where they "coulda" won it.  That one year means talent was never issue. Good point cant believe I couldnt see that.

How many years being a small market team do you think teams have?

The grizzlies will never be the warriors. Hell, lebron said even he had a hard time convincing people to come to Cleveland.

As far as woulda won a title, I'm not saying it was a mortal lock, but they were certainly better than most teams: they were a top 3 team with Cleveland and the Warriors, and they had a hell of a shot. 

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About Rebuild strategy -

This trade was really good in terms of getting actual NBA players that can help win games.     Get us a real look at guys we would probably have to overpay in FA too ( Delon, Avery, and Justin).   However, we now have a lot more useful players that don't all fit as seamlessly as we need (JV and Noah can't play togther,  Parson and Kyle?) .   

I looked at who is under contract for next season

  • Conley
  • Parsons
  • Jonas (player option)
  • Avery( 2m guaranteed)
  • Jevon
  • Kyle
  • CJ (player option)
  • Ivan (team)
  • Jaren
  • Delon (RFA)
  • Dillon

That's 11 guys!  and doesn't include Bruno, Noah, Tyler, or Justin.     Personally, i want to bring back all 4 of those guys and loose Parsons.   No reason why CJ wont pick up his option and depending on how we use Jonas i see the same for him.    I was against Avery at first but it is nice having another guy that can actually dribble and score.    Just like Toke says it is important to have a high energy crazy guy on your team - Noah fits that to a tie while also being a useful player.    I still think Bruno is best used as a SF with crazy length 3D that can play some stretch 4.    CJ is your spot up shooter that can also be a crafty scorer and great vet lockerroom guy.   Tyler Dorsey projects to be a floor spacing shooter and is young enough to be in Jaren window.    Delon is a combo that has size to defend multiple positions and get to the rim to draw fouls but we will have to pay to keep him.    I love SloMo his defense and BBIQ are off the charts.    Lineup with Avery + Delon + Justin + Kyle + Jaren would be ludicrous!  

From a Jaren window standpoint Jevon, Dillon, Ivan, Tyler, Bruno, and Kyle all fit perfectly.     We can't keep all these guys and hard decisions must be made.    So what should the strategy be?   

My Hot take:

I too believe that smart move would be to trade Conley this offseason; which could give us young players and picks without having to take back bad salary.    IMHO Indiana would make the most sense.     They have a ton of expirings falling off the books this summer (Tyreke, Joseph, Thad, Bojan, Collison) which allows them to trade Conley into their capspace.   We could possibly still get their 2019 pick + futures AND make them give us Aaron Holiday.   They may require us to take back Dougie McBuckets or TJ Leaf but i'd be willing to do that.     I would throw in Jevon with that trade If we are getting Holiday no need for him sense they are the same age.   Now I am resigning Justin on a team friendly deal to pair with Aaron on second unit.    Justin is a solid player and having chemistry with his brother would ease the transition. 

I would then resign Delon because no way Aaron is ready to be full-time lead PG.   He would be the primary backup. 

Maybe Parsons proves he cant play and retires or gets stretched next season.  Either way i dont want him part of the plans in 2019.  

I bring back Avery on his last year simply because we aren't getting anyone better in FA.  I would want to have a vet guy like Avery in backcourt because we loss Mike.    I don't believe Delon alone can replace what Mike brought but pairing him with Avery should ease the loss.  

Other big question is how does Kyle and Dillon fit into all of this.   Now that we have Avery, Delon and Holiday onboard all guys that can handle the ball - will that force SloMo off the ball even more?    Was he always a better fit for the Mike  + Gasol centered team?    Will he be able to thrive on a faster paced squad that doesn't allow him to facilitate as much?  Should Dillon be a SF or SG?  We now have really athletic guys on the wings with length.  Is he odd man out?   Should one or both of them be traded?  

Another huge question is Jonas and Noah.   I can see Jonas testing his value in Free Agency and he should have suitors.   The eternal question for us is  "If Jaren is a Center then why keep Jonas longterm?".    It would make more sense to just resign Noah to backup Jaren as insurance.     However,  if Jaren is really a PF then i want to lock up Jonas longterm but we prob losing Noah at that point but he is 34y.  

 

In summary all i do know is that pursuing a trade with Indy for Conley would be smart move to make.  New backcourt rotation of       

PG: Delon/Aaron

SG: Avery/ Justin 

With Jaren  +Rabb is a good place to start.   Everything else is more complicated. 

 

 

 

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testing bradely value with cap relief would be smart too , gonna be lots of sad contenders and lots of FA's and AD on the move . 

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I still think that the grizzlies cannot trade Conley WITHOUT a high talented pg on the books next year. My opinion could change however if Delon Wright can set the world on fire. I really love his size at the pg spot. I don't think Avery Bradley and him fit very well together though. I like CJ next to him, Dillon would be good next to him, Justin also.

I think Tyler Doresy isn't very good, and he is only a g-league player at best.

One option would be to win enough to convey pick this year, trade conley for a pick high enough to get Darius Garland. 

 

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you like garland more than morant ?

as for parsons maybe the the heat theycleared Tyler Johnson salary for Ryan Anderson who's in the same boat as Parsons, the have waiters, James Johnson , Olynyk  a couple youngsters and maybe a couple of their own picks .

 

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2 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

I still think that the grizzlies cannot trade Conley WITHOUT a high talented pg on the books next year. My opinion could change however if Delon Wright can set the world on fire. I really love his size at the pg spot. I don't think Avery Bradley and him fit very well together though. I like CJ next to him, Dillon would be good next to him, Justin also.

I think Tyler Doresy isn't very good, and he is only a g-league player at best.

One option would be to win enough to convey pick this year, trade conley for a pick high enough to get Darius Garland. 

 

I can see FO doing Mike a favor by sending him to his hometown.  Like they sent Gasol to a contender in an international city.  Aaron Holiday could be that high level PG that's why i like the idea of trading with Indy.    It fits on several levels.   Oladipo injury means they need real help in backcourt because no idea how long it will take before he gets back to AllStar form.  They get to keep Sabonis and Myles who are bigtime players for the future.   Mike gets a real shot at AllStar because he will be primary playmaker at beginning of season.       We get back high level prospect that eventually can develop into starting PG and share backcourt with Delon.   He gets to play with his brother.  

 

CJ shouldn't be considered part of any equation other than shooter off the bench and vet locker-room guy.    

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indy would be a contender with Conley no doubt they would have beat det/utah offers if they would have been healthy , i think they view leaf as a decent prospect , i dont think he's just filler .

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8 minutes ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

I can see FO doing Mike a favor by sending him to his hometown.  Like they sent Gasol to a contender in an international city.  Aaron Holiday could be that high level PG that's why i like the idea of trading with Indy.    It fits on several levels.   Oladipo injury means they need real help in backcourt because no idea how long it will take before he gets back to AllStar form.  They get to keep Sabonis and Myles who are bigtime players for the future.   Mike gets a real shot at AllStar because he will be primary playmaker at beginning of season.       We get back high level prospect that eventually can develop into starting PG and share backcourt with Delon.   He gets to play with his brother.  

 

CJ shouldn't be considered part of any equation other than shooter off the bench and vet locker-room guy.    

indy doesnt have the assets, the only guy i like on that team would be sabonis, but the grizzlies don't need sabonis. I hope you are suggesting that their first rounder this year would be enough to get conley, that's hell to the naw to me.

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1 hour ago, Kevin B Moses said:

That is not true. The grizzlies could have won the championship in 2014. To act like it was a talent issue is a misrepresentation of facts. Not only that, the grizzlies had Rudy, along with Zach and Mike and Marc were 3 and 4. So why did we not keep Rudy? Because small market team syndrome. The grizzlies instead of going for the championship decided to cut costs.

I don't see how that will change this go around either. But the idea that the grizzlies have to render a top 9 pick this year or our entire world will end is dumb.

Rudy was playing like a dog when they traded him, don't forget that. I do believe he has been humbled by being traded so much. Hasn't he played for 4 or more teams?

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Just now, Kevin B Moses said:

indy doesnt have the assets, the only guy i like on that team would be sabonis, but the grizzlies don't need sabonis. I hope you are suggesting that their first rounder this year would be enough to get conley, that's hell to the naw to me.

No, i  said Aaron Holiday + 2019 first and future picks for Conley.    They can trade him into capspace so no need to send over multiple bad contracts.      Young prospect  + Multiple picks was the asking price this past deadline.    Utah nor DET was willing to give us a young prospect.  

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20 minutes ago, IdrinkGuinness said:

you like garland more than morant ?

as for parsons maybe the the heat theycleared Tyler Johnson salary for Ryan Anderson who's in the same boat as Parsons, the have waiters, James Johnson , Olynyk  a couple youngsters and maybe a couple of their own picks .

 

I think Ja could be great, but I also think that once he gets with the bib boys in the nba, he could become a terrible chucker, and a cancer to the team. Ja is about ja. Garland is more in control, that's why I like him.

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I don't see any point guard in this draft that could replace Conley within 2 years, so this team can be outside the top 6 in 2021 draft.
JJJ really hasn't look physically ready to be a center to me at all, which eliminates the benefits of having such a good second PF in Ivan Rabb. JJJ needs at least 2-3 years to build into a top center less time as PF. But we just don't have any center talent.
And we still don't know if we have a sg, or sf. As we don't know if Dillon will turn the corner.
Too many things in limbo, and too many FA to assume we can rebuild in 2 years.
I would say a 4 year rebuild is more likely.

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Just now, Kevin B Moses said:

I think Ja could be great, but I also think that once he gets with the bib boys in the nba, he could become a terrible chucker, and a cancer to the team. Ja is about ja. Garland is more in control, that's why I like him.

i see that a bit with JA too .

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7 minutes ago, IdrinkGuinness said:

indy would be a contender with Conley no doubt they would have beat det/utah offers if they would have been healthy , i think they view leaf as a decent prospect , i dont think he's just filler .

Well depends on what BOS and PHI do but they would be Top3 for sure.    I don't care about Leaf but i can see them making us take him or McDermott.  If so then i want them to take Jevon to free up roster spot. 

I just think a deal with them works for all sides.  Utah isn't willing to part with Exum so they have nothing i want and that goes double for DET.  

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Just now, Silverllama said:

I don't see any point guard in this draft that could replace Conley within 2 years, so this team can be outside the top 6 in 2021 draft.
JJJ really hasn't look physically ready to be a center to me at all, which eliminates the benefits of having such a good second PF in Ivan Rabb. JJJ needs at least 2-3 years to build into a top center less time as PF. But we just don't have any center talent.
And we still don't know if we have a sg, or sf. As we don't know if Dillon will turn the corner.
Too many things in limbo, and too many FA to assume we can rebuild in 2 years.
I would say a 4 year rebuild is more likely.

i dont know of any pg in 99% of drafts that can do that .  that really rare for a guy to replace a star in 2 years.  but you get roookies for 4 years and then the next contract. 

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1 hour ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

About Rebuild strategy -

This trade was really good in terms of getting actual NBA players that can help win games.     Get us a real look at guys we would probably have to overpay in FA too ( Delon, Avery, and Justin).   However, we now have a lot more useful players that don't all fit as seamlessly as we need (JV and Noah can't play togther,  Parson and Kyle?) .   

I looked at who is under contract for next season

  • Conley
  • Parsons
  • Jonas (player option)
  • Avery( 2m guaranteed)
  • Jevon
  • Kyle
  • CJ (player option)
  • Ivan (team)
  • Jaren
  • Delon (RFA)
  • Dillon

That's 11 guys!  and doesn't include Bruno, Noah, Tyler, or Justin.     Personally, i want to bring back all 4 of those guys and loose Parsons.   No reason why CJ wont pick up his option and depending on how we use Jonas i see the same for him.    I was against Avery at first but it is nice having another guy that can actually dribble and score.    Just like Toke says it is important to have a high energy crazy guy on your team - Noah fits that to a tie while also being a useful player.    I still think Bruno is best used as a SF with crazy length 3D that can play some stretch 4.    CJ is your spot up shooter that can also be a crafty scorer and great vet lockerroom guy.   Tyler Dorsey projects to be a floor spacing shooter and is young enough to be in Jaren window.    Delon is a combo that has size to defend multiple positions and get to the rim to draw fouls but we will have to pay to keep him.    I love SloMo his defense and BBIQ are off the charts.    Lineup with Avery + Delon + Justin + Kyle + Jaren would be ludicrous!  

From a Jaren window standpoint Jevon, Dillon, Ivan, Tyler, Bruno, and Kyle all fit perfectly.     We can't keep all these guys and hard decisions must be made.    So what should the strategy be?   

My Hot take:

I too believe that smart move would be to trade Conley this offseason; which could give us young players and picks without having to take back bad salary.    IMHO Indiana would make the most sense.     They have a ton of expirings falling off the books this summer (Tyreke, Joseph, Thad, Bojan, Collison) which allows them to trade Conley into their capspace.   We could possibly still get their 2019 pick + futures AND make them give us Aaron Holiday.   They may require us to take back Dougie McBuckets or TJ Leaf but i'd be willing to do that.     I would throw in Jevon with that trade If we are getting Holiday no need for him sense they are the same age.   Now I am resigning Justin on a team friendly deal to pair with Aaron on second unit.    Justin is a solid player and having chemistry with his brother would ease the transition. 

I would then resign Delon because no way Aaron is ready to be full-time lead PG.   He would be the primary backup. 

Maybe Parsons proves he cant play and retires or gets stretched next season.  Either way i dont want him part of the plans in 2019.  

I bring back Avery on his last year simply because we aren't getting anyone better in FA.  I would want to have a vet guy like Avery in backcourt because we loss Mike.    I don't believe Delon alone can replace what Mike brought but pairing him with Avery should ease the loss.  

Other big question is how does Kyle and Dillon fit into all of this.   Now that we have Avery, Delon and Holiday onboard all guys that can handle the ball - will that force SloMo off the ball even more?    Was he always a better fit for the Mike  + Gasol centered team?    Will he be able to thrive on a faster paced squad that doesn't allow him to facilitate as much?  Should Dillon be a SF or SG?  We now have really athletic guys on the wings with length.  Is he odd man out?   Should one or both of them be traded?  

Another huge question is Jonas and Noah.   I can see Jonas testing his value in Free Agency and he should have suitors.   The eternal question for us is  "If Jaren is a Center then why keep Jonas longterm?".    It would make more sense to just resign Noah to backup Jaren as insurance.     However,  if Jaren is really a PF then i want to lock up Jonas longterm but we prob losing Noah at that point but he is 34y.  

 

In summary all i do know is that pursuing a trade with Indy for Conley would be smart move to make.  New backcourt rotation of       

PG: Delon/Aaron

SG: Avery/ Justin 

With Jaren  +Rabb is a good place to start.   Everything else is more complicated. 

 

 

 

Where you from? A TIE? Down here it is a TEE. Now about your list, I don't care for Jevon, he's like MC, he goes places he should never go, and gets himself in trouble. He would have to improve a lot for me to keep him. I DON'T like short guards.

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3 minutes ago, IdrinkGuinness said:

i dont know of any pg in 99% of drafts that can do that .  that really rare for a guy to replace a star in 2 years.  but you get roookies for 4 years and then the next contract. 

I agree with this, but the 2 year window is the unprotected draft pick window.
Giving a top 3 pick that year for a PG that hopefully develops in 4 years, may be worse than the Hasheem Thabeet decision.

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1 minute ago, IdrinkGuinness said:

i dont know of any pg in 99% of drafts that can do that .  that really rare for a guy to replace a star in 2 years.  but you get roookies for 4 years and then the next contract. 

Right,  that is why i target Aaron Holiday and resign Delon.     The combination of them should be able to keep us steady with Holiday ready to take full reigns in 2 years.     

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10 minutes ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

No, i  said Aaron Holiday + 2019 first and future picks for Conley.    They can trade him into capspace so no need to send over multiple bad contracts.      Young prospect  + Multiple picks was the asking price this past deadline.    Utah nor DET was willing to give us a young prospect.  

I think you're looking at MC like he is a gold mind, I don't think many GMs will be looking at him like that. You do know he has been injured quite a bit and is getting up in age. 

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