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Kevin B Moses

Avoiding the lottery strategy, and other topics about Mike Conley and the rebuild

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I know that I'm right about it, logically speaking, that the grizzlies should NOT try to avoid or get out of the 8th spot or under this year. This strategy is wrong on many levels. There are at least 3 solid reasons why.

  • Number 1: unless the grizzlies make the playoffs this year (which they wont) they cannot guarantee themselves NOT to get an 8th pick or better.
  • Number 2: assuming that next year's draft will be better than this years draft, also presupposes that the grizzlies ineptitude will extent into next year, which is a losing mentality.
  • Number 3: the issue of replacing Mike Conley and the possibility of trading him isn't a separate issue, and it should not be viewed as such.

 Here's what the grizzlies SHOULD do. They should complete the tank job THIS year, get a top 8th pick, draft Darius Garland all the way up to 5th-8th spot, and only if they win the draft try something else.

Why Darius Garland? Because the grizzlies NEED a mike conley replacement. We need a high-level pg that Mike can groom and we can evaluate while the grizzlies prepare for a blockbuster conley trade. If Darius is great out of the gate then the grizzlies can trade Mike next year; if he isn't we might have to wait a see mode. At any rate, until the grizzlies get a mike conley replacement, then getting rid of conley will be extremely difficult. 

Also, the clock is ticking on conley and ideally, we would like to trade him next year to maximize his value. I don't believe, unless the grizzlies get really good quick, that Mike Conley stays past his current contract, which his 2 more years left on it.

But at any rate, trying to not tank this year, because you are worried about next year or the year after seems futile to me. You would assume that the grizzlies are going to get better from here on out: not worse.

Pg takes the longest to develop and without a HIGH HIGH pick, finding a good one better than Garland might be difficult. In fact, one way to look at next year's draft is to say which pg's projected in the top 12 to 15, would you want over Garland? In this thought process, Garland would be a fulcrum point to decide what would be the better way forward.

Garland is shooting back up the draft boards after last year when he torn a meniscus in his knee. He has been compared to Kyrie irving, so while NBADRAFT.net has him at 16, he is already moving up several draft boards with his stellar play this year. He could move up similar to Jaren Jackson Jr last year when he was projected outside the top ten only to move to 4th overall. I said that to say that if the grizzlies do get the 6th pick, that Darius would not be a reach at that spot.   

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So far against UVA RJ is 5/5 on 3's.  he and jaren would give us a SWEET 2 man game.  

At 6-8 maybe we trade down a bit for tre Jones and a wing.

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agree 100%  ,   give me a top 8 pick because the only thing we really can magage to do is draft , jjj,brooks,rabb  even wanatabe(FA?)rter ... . let the winners run  and stop dreaming about signing FA, making great trades because even this year with gasol we messed up before the deal even went down , the mess with brooks . the mess with tyreke , trading for real scrubs like Temple  

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Majic Money Mike is not on this list but it is worth considering when thinking about upcoming FA, or a possible trade on draft night.

Also need to think about a back up PG if Wright doesn't show anything between now and then.

https://hoopshype.com/2019/02/08/nba-free-agency-2019-point-guards/

If we had the capspace I'd be having a full crack at Rozier.

DRose would be next choice but there is still significant risk there, and he's still gonna cost

 

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20 minutes ago, BigHunkALove said:

Majic Money Mike is not on this list but it is worth considering when thinking about upcoming FA, or a possible trade on draft night.

Also need to think about a back up PG if Wright doesn't show anything between now and then.

https://hoopshype.com/2019/02/08/nba-free-agency-2019-point-guards/

If we had the capspace I'd be having a full crack at Rozier.

DRose would be next choice but there is still significant risk there, and he's still gonna cost

 

Neither of those guys are long-term solutions though. 

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11 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

Neither of those guys are long-term solutions though. 

Rozier could be

Attainable? Long odds

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We need to convey the pick this year. Loser mentality or not but the likelihood of a lottery pick is high in 2021. Heck we may be bad enough to get a top 3 pick. We do not want to convey the pick in 2021 to Boston. Also if Mike gets traded during the draft we can potentially pick up a first rounder this year.

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11 minutes ago, russian grizzly said:

Let me put it in Naoh’s style: We are going to win each and every f...ing game of this f...ing season. This is our only course. F...k all other strategies and their authors. 

I’m with this guy 👍🏼. (No collusion)

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15 minutes ago, grizz1016 said:

We need to convey the pick this year. Loser mentality or not but the likelihood of a lottery pick is high in 2021. Heck we may be bad enough to get a top 3 pick. We do not want to convey the pick in 2021 to Boston. Also if Mike gets traded during the draft we can potentially pick up a first rounder this year.

If we are still in the lottery come 2021, something has gone seriously wrong. 

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2 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

If we are still in the lottery come 2021, something has gone seriously wrong. 

Chances are we will be. This team with a healthy Mike and Mark are a lottery team. Mike will most likely be dealt this draft or the summer. We’ll be bad for a few years

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4 minutes ago, grizz1016 said:

Chances are we will be. This team with a healthy Mike and Mark are a lottery team. Mike will most likely be dealt this draft or the summer. We’ll be bad for a few years

You have a lot of assumptions here. Like I said, if we are in the lottery in 2021 we have bigger problems than conveying a pick. That would mean, Jaren, Rabb, Dillon, Kyle, 2 more lottery picks in the top 8, plus what we get for conley AND we are still in the lottery. If that's the case, the grizzlies need to contract and save everybody the trouble.

But I trust that we won't be.

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9 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

You have a lot of assumptions here. Like I said, if we are in the lottery in 2021 we have bigger problems than conveying a pick. That would mean, Jaren, Rabb, Dillon, Kyle, 2 more lottery picks in the top 8, plus what we get for conley AND we are still in the lottery. If that's the case, the grizzlies need to contract and save everybody the trouble.

But I trust that we won't be.

I don’t have a lot of assumptions...you do.

It has been stated by folks in the media that keep up with the Grizz that Grizz will explore trade options for Mike around draft or this summer. Chances are high he’s getting traded. That’s my only assumption.

Thats a young and inexperienced roster. You are making an assumption that a similar roster but with much younger players is somehow going to make the jump and be in the POs or be an almost PO team in the West.

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8 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

You have a lot of assumptions here. Like I said, if we are in the lottery in 2021 we have bigger problems than conveying a pick. That would mean, Jaren, Rabb, Dillon, Kyle, 2 more lottery picks in the top 8, plus what we get for conley AND we are still in the lottery. If that's the case, the grizzlies need to contract and save everybody the trouble.

But I trust that we won't be.

 

A lot of those lottery teams return to the lottery in following years.

 

Given a choice between #5 in the 2019 draft and #4 in the 2021, I would probably choose this one.

But given a choice between #6 in the 2019 and a top 3 in 2021, and getting off that stupid pick, I'm getting off the pick.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, grizz1016 said:

I don’t have a lot of assumptions...you do.

It has been stated by folks in the media that keep up with the Grizz that Grizz will explore trade options for Mike around draft or this summer. Chances are high he’s getting traded. That’s my only assumption.

Thats a young and inexperienced roster. You are making an assumption that a similar roster but with much younger players is somehow going to make the jump and be in the POs or be an almost PO team in the West.

In 2021 Jaren will be in his 3rd year, we will have 2 more top 8 picks, plus what we get for Mike and any free agents we bring in. Like I said, if we are in the lottery then we have a lot of problems.

The 2021 pick will be unprotected, is the only difference.  

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12 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

In 2021 Jaren will be in his 3rd year, we will have 2 more top 8 picks, plus what we get for Mike and any free agents we bring in. Like I said, if we are in the lottery then we have a lot of problems.

The 2021 pick will be unprotected, is the only difference.  

We agree to disagree. It’s not easy to make the POs with a young and rebuilding roster in the West.

The fact that the organization wants to convey the pick now should indicate what they think 2020-2021 season will be record wise. 

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7 minutes ago, grizz1016 said:

We agree to disagree. It’s not easy to make the POs with a young and rebuilding roster in the West.

The fact that the organization wants to convey the pick now should indicate what they think 2020-2021 season will be record wise. 

The grizzlies are stupid to want to convey it now. I don't think it matters one way or the other honestly. 

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9 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

The grizzlies are stupid to want to convey it now. I don't think it matters one way or the other honestly. 

No they are not stupid in this case. You cannot take the risk of giving up a high lotto pick in 2021. That’s sheer stupidity. 

IMO they will probably end up with a 1st round pick in 2019 with a Conley trade. Conveying the pick now and also getting another 2019 pick is shrewd business. They will then have the coveted 2021 pick intact. 

The Grizz f’d up with the Jeff Green trade. Delaying that pick to 2021 on purpose would be compounding that stupid mistake.

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15 minutes ago, grizz1016 said:

No they are not stupid in this case. You cannot take the risk of giving up a high lotto pick in 2021. That’s sheer stupidity. 

IMO they will probably end up with a 1st round pick in 2019 with a Conley trade. Conveying the pick now and also getting another 2019 pick is shrewd business. They will then have the coveted 2021 pick intact. 

The Grizz f’d up with the Jeff Green trade. Delaying that pick to 2021 on purpose would be compounding that stupid mistake.

there is less risk in 2021 than there would be now. My opinion is that the 8th pick or better this draft will be the highest pick out of the newt 3 drafts.

The grizzlies are already hosed this season. However, the problem is that they most likely are going to convey the pick this year. I see the grizzlies playing better over the next 25 games.

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You guys make way too big of a deal about the 2021 draft like there will be a glut of good players just because there will be HS to NBA allowed.  This isn't the first time the NBA had this.  If you go research all the previous drafts with HS to NBA you will find that maybe one HS to NBA player in each draft turns out to be good.  Sure, there was KG and Kobe and TMac and LBJ, but there was also Kwame Brown and Martell Webster and Sebastian Telfair etc.  There might be one or two worthwhile HS guys available in 2021 but I wouldn't be counting on a lot more.  With our draft history we're just as likely to draft the next Eddy Curry.

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4 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

there is less risk in 2021 than there would be now. My opinion is that the 8th pick or better this draft will be the highest pick out of the newt 3 drafts.

The grizzlies are already hosed this season. However, the problem is that they most likely are going to convey the pick this year. I see the grizzlies playing better over the next 25 games.

We shall see. Regardless I think there’s enough talent on this team now to stay out of the bottom 8.

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4 minutes ago, smit-tay griz said:

You guys make way too big of a deal about the 2021 draft like there will be a glut of good players just because there will be HS to NBA allowed.  This isn't the first time the NBA had this.  If you go research all the previous drafts with HS to NBA you will find that maybe one HS to NBA player in each draft turns out to be good.  Sure, there was KG and Kobe and TMac and LBJ, but there was also Kwame Brown and Martell Webster and Sebastian Telfair etc.  There might be one or two worthwhile HS guys available in 2021 but I wouldn't be counting on a lot more.  With our draft history we're just as likely to draft the next Eddy Curry.

It’s a big deal since there’s a solid chance we’ll have a draft pick in the high single digits. The top portion of that draft will have the best one and dones and the best high school players. It’s unlike any draft in recent memory.

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3 minutes ago, grizz1016 said:

It’s a big deal since there’s a solid chance we’ll have a draft pick in the high single digits. The top portion of that draft will have the best one and dones and the best high school players. It’s unlike any draft in recent memory.

Of the best one and dones there is usually only one or maybe less that makes it, and they all aren't stars.

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7 minutes ago, smit-tay griz said:

Of the best one and dones there is usually only one or maybe less that makes it, and they all aren't stars.

The 2018 draft shows that number can be high. The 2021 draft will have the best one and dones from 2020-2021 college season and the ones that would be in 2021-2022 season. The chances of us being in the lotto are high and IMO it’s sheer stupidity giving up a lotto pick in a draft like this.

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