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Grizzled Vet

Playoff watch - how many wins do you think it will take

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After 20 games, the team sits 12-8.  Playing .500 ball the remainder of the season gets them to 43-39.  That is almost equal to the win % for 8th place right now.

A- Does 43 wins get a team into the West in the playoffs? If not, how many wins will the 8th place team have?

B- If the season ended today, these 8 teams would make the playoffs. 

A) Clippers, Warriors, Nuggets, Thunder, Blazers, Grizzlies, Lakers, Mavs are in.

B ) Timberwolves, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, Jazz, and Rockets are out but borderline.

Suns are basically eliminated.

Predict what team(s) not in the top 8, and who in the top 8 won't be there in the end?

Basically, for each team you add from line B, remove a team from line A.

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Just to answer.

A- I think 45 wins will get a team into the playoffs, possibly via a tiebreaker.

B- I think the teams who make it to the playoffs from the West are the teams that stay healthiest.  I actually like the Spurs and Jazz chances to stay or get healthy, and I don't think the Rockets will be healthy all year (they have the talent) and the Pelicans also rely a lot on Anthony Davis too much and he'll have his injury moments.  I also think Thibs will run D Rose into the ground, which eliminates them.

So I'll add Spurs and Jazz to list of playoff teams.  I'll take out Mavs and Clippers (although it logically should be Grizzlies and Mavs, I'll go with a homer prediction.) 

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3 minutes ago, Grizzled Vet said:

Just to answer.

A- I think 45 wins will get a team into the playoffs, possibly via a tiebreaker.

B- I think the teams who make it to the playoffs from the West are the teams that stay healthiest.  I actually like the Spurs and Jazz chances to stay or get healthy, and I don't think the Rockets will be healthy all year (they have the talent) and the Pelicans also rely a lot on Anthony Davis too much and he'll have his injury moments.  I also think Thibs will run D Rose into the ground, which eliminates them.

So I'll add Spurs and Jazz to list of playoff teams.  I'll take out Mavs and Clippers (although it logically should be Grizzlies and Mavs, I'll go with a homer prediction.) 

Yeah, maybe 45.  Let's shoot for 46.  Although if the Rockets and Spurs continue to fade then maybe as low as 43.  The Jazz and T Wolves are pretty much mediocre, and maybe the Clippers are for real, but maybe not.  And, who knows about the Lakers....

 

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I know most don't watch the WC standings every day, but it is pretty amazing to see the impact of a couple days of games on the standings.
For example, the Mavs beat the Rockets last night to put the Mavs in 8th, and Rockets in 14th.

If the game goes the other way, the Rockets would be tied for 8th (with 3 other .500 teams), and the Mavs would be 1 game under .500 with the Spurs in 12th (Mavs actually in 13th).

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5 minutes ago, Grizzled Vet said:

I know most don't watch the WC standings every day, but it is pretty amazing to see the impact of a couple days of games on the standings.
For example, the Mavs beat the Rockets last night to put the Mavs in 8th, and Rockets in 14th.

If the game goes the other way, the Rockets would be tied for 8th (with 3 other .500 teams), and the Mavs would be 1 game under .500 with the Spurs in 12th (Mavs actually in 13th).

I would expect to see some separation but maybe not.

Looks like a bunch of "48 wins" type teams to me.  

Warriors might be the only West team to threaten 55 wins this season -- if that.

 

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If Curry never gets healthy this year the West is wide open 

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37 minutes ago, Allen said:

If Curry never gets healthy this year the West is wide open 

Could be more to that. Curry was injured, got close to coming back and got hit in a car accident. The vehicle that hit him looked a lot like KBM's...

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538 came out with their updated playoff projections.

They have the Grizzlies at 37% chance of making the playoffs and predict a 42-40 record.  This is updated after each day.  Yesterday they had them at 41-41 with 33% chance.

From the West they predict

Warriors, Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets, Jazz, Clippers, Pelicans, (T-Wolves, Lakers, T-Blazers tied for 8th with Blazers having the highest playoff %).  Grizzlies at 11th.

 

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4 hours ago, Grizzled Vet said:

538 came out with their updated playoff projections.

They have the Grizzlies at 37% chance of making the playoffs and predict a 42-40 record.  This is updated after each day.  Yesterday they had them at 41-41 with 33% chance.

From the West they predict

Warriors, Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets, Jazz, Clippers, Pelicans, (T-Wolves, Lakers, T-Blazers tied for 8th with Blazers having the highest playoff %).  Grizzlies at 11th.

 

Jazz and Pelicans are in trouble, they may not make it and the Grizzlies may get over the top of them.

Jazz are still being ranked by last year's play, they've been pretty ordinary this year

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After the Sixers loss, the Grizzlies playoff % chances actually increased to 39% from yesterday.

(Jazz & Clippers lost, Spurs beat Blazers).  Still predicted for 42-40 record after the loss, as I imagine the loss was forecast anyway.

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I think this is close to what reality will be. The west is brutal and I find it hard to believe we will make it past 44 wins or so. 

Big game tonight! 

 

Edited by 10SC-2-TOKYO
🤨

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After the Clippers win, the 538 projection jumped to 44% on probability and they must have forecast a Clippers victory as the projected record climbed to 43-39, and 11th in the West.

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I think everyone in the west minus the Suns (way less) and the Warriors and OKC (more) will have between 42 and 46 wins. Should be fun. The team to watch is the Spurs, will they are usually a lock for the playoffs, they might fade soon and might end up making some changes at the end of the season.

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538 gives the Spurs a 1% chance of making the playoffs and the Rockets a 92% chance. In what world does that make sense?

edit: fwiw it does seem this will be the Spurs year to finally miss the playoffs but 1% is outrageous.

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2 hours ago, srmjr23 said:

538 gives the Spurs a 1% chance of making the playoffs and the Rockets a 92% chance. In what world does that make sense?

edit: fwiw it does seem this will be the Spurs year to finally miss the playoffs but 1% is outrageous.

538 is using historical data to produce those odds at the beginning of every season so they’re heavily skewed for teams with recent success like HOU. And they don’t take into account injuries to determine the odds either (otherwise playoff odds should be adjusted any time some important player went down) so the end result is these forecasts are iffy to say the least.

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It was mentioned on Golic and Wingo about a week ago that historically, after roughly the first quarter of the season, 7 of the eight teams at the top of each conference by that point will make the playoffs for the season. The Grizzlies are in the top eight.

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8 minutes ago, Wells said:

It was mentioned on Golic and Wingo about a week ago that historically, after roughly the first quarter of the season, 7 of the eight teams at the top of each conference by that point will make the playoffs for the season. The Grizzlies are in the top eight.

Last year nobody believed that the rockets were for real. I mean they knew that they were good, but they didn't know to what level.

I feel like that people are discounting the grizzlies because they think they seen this show before. Specifically, 2016. This is not the 2016 team that could only win 2 games against the spurs. This team is younger, hungrier, better coached, deeper. With all respect to ZBO and Tony. By 2016 they were pretty much done and the grizzlies didn't have any bench. It was a lopsided team.

This team has championship potential. 

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12 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

Last year nobody believed that the rockets were for real. I mean they knew that they were good, but they didn't know to what level.

I feel like that people are discounting the grizzlies because they think they seen this show before. Specifically, 2016. This is not the 2016 team that could only win 2 games against the spurs. This team is younger, hungrier, better coached, deeper. With all respect to ZBO and Tony. By 2016 they were pretty much done and the grizzlies didn't have any bench. It was a lopsided team.

This team has championship potential. 

Not to go overboard, but if the gs turmoil holds them back from their potential I don’t see why it would be out of the realm of possibility. 

Grizz can prob beat any team in the league on any given night (including gs). In multiple seven game playoff series? We’ll just have to see. Not to mention any team can beat the Grizz any given night lol  

Still pretty early in the season but it just doesn’t seem like a given that gs will win it this year. 

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17 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

Last year nobody believed that the rockets were for real. I mean they knew that they were good, but they didn't know to what level.

I feel like that people are discounting the grizzlies because they think they seen this show before. Specifically, 2016. This is not the 2016 team that could only win 2 games against the spurs. This team is younger, hungrier, better coached, deeper. With all respect to ZBO and Tony. By 2016 they were pretty much done and the grizzlies didn't have any bench. It was a lopsided team.

This team has championship potential. 

The Spurs swept us in 2016.

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4 minutes ago, smit-tay griz said:

The Spurs swept us in 2016.

I’m going out on a limb and assuming he meant the next year

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10 minutes ago, smit-tay griz said:

The Spurs swept us in 2016.

Why can't you understand that when I say 2016, I mean 2016-2017. This year to me is 2018, because that's when the season begins. Haven't we gone over this before?

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7 minutes ago, Subliminal said:

I’m going out on a limb and assuming he meant the next year

I know he did, but he keeps doing it over and over, so I will take it upon myself to get him back in line.😈

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2 minutes ago, Kevin B Moses said:

Why can't you understand that when I say 2016, I mean 2016-2017. This year to me is 2018, because that's when the season begins. Haven't we gone over this before?

This year is 2018.  The playoffs for this season will not be.

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5 minutes ago, smit-tay griz said:

This year is 2018.  The playoffs for this season will not be.

I understand. I think of it as the 2018 season. Not the 2019 playoffs. 

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