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MemphisX

Blueprint for a NBA Championship

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This is perhaps my favorite article on the NBA in the internet age.  Finally, we can apply it to our situation again.

Blueprint for an NBA Championship Team

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BUILDING A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM

 

STEP 1: Acquire a Championship Superstar

Approach #1: Acquire a Top 5 caliber player 
Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-NBA first team during their careers. These players are easy to identify as all but 4 NBA championship teams included players named All-NBA 1st Team in the prior four seasons.

Approach #2: If you fail to acquire a Top 5 caliber player, then you need a Top 5 caliber defender. 
Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-Defensive first team during their careers, and each of these teams included Top 5 Players.

Approach #3: Clear salary cap space for next year. 
No NBA team has won a championship without a Top 5 player or Top 5 defender.

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STEP 2: Add a championship sidekick (or two)

Every NBA championship roster included a Top 10 caliber player or Top 10 defender as a sidekick. Most championship sidekicks can be identified by looking at players named All-NBA 1st or 2nd Team or All-Defensive 1st or 2nd Team in one of the prior 4 seasons. All told, 86% of all championship rosters included at least one sidekick with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection, and over half of the championship rosters (57%) included 2 or more sidekicks with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection.

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STEP 3: Make sure one of your players (superstar or sidekick) can defend

No team has won an NBA title without a Top 10 caliber defender.

Also, keep in mind that we are probably 4-5 seasons away.  Hopefully JJJ can be a top 5 player in 4-5 seasons or at least a top 5 defender.  Between now and then we need to get the TWO sidekicks or potentially top 5 players while clearing cap space.

Also, I want to get rid of the Boston obligation and concentrate on the 2020-22 drafts. During this time we should not be signing anyone to long term deals unless they have top 5 player/defender potential.

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22 minutes ago, MemphisX said:

This is perhaps my favorite article on the NBA in the internet age.  Finally, we can apply it to our situation again.

Blueprint for an NBA Championship Team

Also, keep in mind that we are probably 4-5 seasons away.  Hopefully JJJ can be a top 5 player in 4-5 seasons or at least a top 5 defender.  Between now and then we need to get the TWO sidekicks or potentially top 5 players while clearing cap space.

Also, I want to get rid of the Boston obligation and concentrate on the 2020-22 drafts. During this time we should not be signing anyone to long term deals unless they have top 5 player/defender potential.

+1

Basically we get to play with house money this season and the next. The "best" thing about being financially crippled by Parsons' salary is we can't really get into any truly bad new contract. I don't think we're going to re-sign any of our upcoming free agents to big contracts (if at all), and MLE/BAE type contracts can't get us into major trouble.

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Unfortunately, we will never follow this blueprint. 

This team has routinely whiffed on drafts when giving the chance and throw away first round draft picks like a $2 lady of the night. The chances of the Grizz signing a big name FA, let alone a superstar are pretty slim. We would have to be one of a few teams/options with massive amounts of cash to spend and we would vastly overpay. The best option is to draft a superstar but as you and everyone on this board knows, the Grizz just repeatedly screw the pooch when it comes to drafting. Let's look at our last few first round picks in the Chris Wallace era (yes, I know he didn't draft Conley and there was a time where he couldn't even enter the building under Levien):

2018: JJJ( no judgment yet but this could be a very good one, we may be on the right road with this guy)

2016: Wade Baldwin (screwed the pooch, waived him after 1 year)

2015: Jarell Martin (has done nothing, was almost waived)

2014: Jordan Adams (did absolutely nothing)

2012: Tony Wroten (did absolutely nothing)

2010: Xavier Henry (lottery pick dud, out of the league in 5 years); Dominique Jones (victim of cash considerations); Greivis Vasquez (actually a decent bench player who seemed genuinely happy to be here and we traded him after 1 year)- In 1 year, we whiffed on 3 1st round draft picks

2009: Hasheem Thabust (lottery picked, out of the league in 5 years, a #2 overall pick who never averaged more than 3.1 ppg or 3.6 rpg in any season); DeMarre Carroll (much like Vasquez, decent pick, we traded him 7 games into his second season)

2008: Kevin Love (I was all on the Love train but we traded him for OJ Mayo, nuff said); Donte Green (we flipped him into Darrel Arthur, a decent move)

2007: Michael Conley, Jr (our franchise player, a good player, not great, never will be an All Star but he's our franchise player)

So out of all those opportunities, we basically flushed the majority of them down the toilet and Conley was the only lottery pick to hit in the past 11 years (obviously, not counting JJJ since he hasn't played 1 minute). We have thrown away two lottery picks (Thabeet and Henry) and repeatedly whiffed on numerous 1st round draft picks. Not only that, we don't value first round picks.

In that same time frame we have traded away 1st round draft picks for players like Ronnie Brewer, old Shane Battier/Ish Smith, Jon Leuer, Jeff Green, and Rade Zagorac/Deyonta Davis. Most of those players didn't even stick with the team for longer than a year after we gave up a 1st round pick. We were lucky enough to get a 1st round pick back for Jeff Green after we gave up one to get him but then turned around and gave that one up for Rade and DD. This team just does not value 1st round draft picks at all in the Chris Wallace era. 

By contrast, you look at a team like Seattle/OKC and in three consecutive years they drafted Kevin Durant in 2007 (2014 NBA MVP), Russel Westbrook in 2008 (2017 NBA MVP) and James Harden in 2009 (2018 NBA MVP). Now they have made some questionable moves since then and i don't understand how they are going to pay $300 mil in salary/luxury tax this year but that 3 year streak alone lets you know the difference between their FO and ours. There's a reason they were the darlings of the league. They made good choices and put their team in position to contend. 

We have been better at acquiring talent via trades including draft day trades, players such as Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol. TA was a decent cheap FA pickup that changed the mentality of the team. We really need to draft much better and acquire any "superstar" level talent via trade but those players are often not available (but I would trade for Andrew Wiggins, just saying or Jimmy Butler). As I have said numerous times, we should have blown this team up after Joerger left, instead we signed Conley and Parsons to crippling contracts, kept Z-Bo and TA until they had no value and are keeping Marc when it's clear his value is plummeting due to age and the style of play most teams are playing. 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Ole Dirty Klondike said:

 

i don't understand how they are going to pay $300 in salary/luxury tax this year 

 

Multi-year repeater tax. They've been over the luxury tax line for two or three years. That will triple or quadruple what you have to pay the league for going over the tax line.

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5 minutes ago, Wells said:

Multi-year repeater tax. They've been over the luxury tax line for two or three years. That will triple or quadruple what you have to pay the league for going over the tax line.

I'm sorry, I understand how it works. What I was saying is that i don't understand how they put themselves in that situation after making so many good decisions previously. They never should have acquired Melo nor resigned PG to that ridiculous contract imo. I understand the mechanics and how they got there, I just don't understand why the franchise thinks its okay. 

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5 minutes ago, Ole Dirty Klondike said:

I'm sorry, I understand how it works. What I was saying is that i don't understand how they put themselves in that situation after making so many good decisions previously. They never should have acquired Melo nor resigned PG to that ridiculous contract imo. I understand the mechanics and how they got there, I just don't understand why the franchise thinks its okay. 

OKC really never made good decisions. They just drafted well and people are still living off what they did between 9+ years ago. 

I honestly considered OKC one of the most overrated FO's in the league. People consider them great because they drafted KD, Russ and Harden in b2b2b. Yet, they constantly fail in terms of actually assembling a team and keeping them together. They've failed several times on the coaching front, they've failed in terms of surrounding their best talent with good role players and have constantly let their talent walk away or not get good value for them. 

What they're doing doesn't surprise me at all. They literally are bringing back their same team from last year + Noel and will potentially buy Melo out. You think its bad being in our position? Think how bad it is to be rich by winning a $500MM lottery, then going broke. Then, you win the lottery again, but continuously make stupid decisions that will lead you into mediocrity. This is how I view OKC. You get PG to re-sign and you go and re-sign Grant, Felton, a backup C that you don't even really need? How do you not try to find ways to add more scoring off the bench? 

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1 minute ago, BHZMAFIA said:

OKC really never made good decisions. They just drafted well and people are still living off what they did between 9+ years ago. 

I honestly considered OKC one of the most overrated FO's in the league. People consider them great because they drafted KD, Russ and Harden in b2b2b. Yet, they constantly fail in terms of actually assembling a team and keeping them together. They've failed several times on the coaching front, they've failed in terms of surrounding their best talent with good role players and have constantly let their talent walk away or not get good value for them. 

 

I would say drafting those players back to back to back were good decisions just as I would say drafting Thabeet #2 overall was a bad decision. They also drafted Serge Ibaka, Steven Adams and Reggie Jackson all good supporting roles players. i think it's fair to say they have been great talent evaluators to obtain talent but have failed on the back end of retaining that talent. I think the Melo trade was just plain stupid and same goes for PG contract which is not consistent with the model of evaluating talent and bringing it in. It's taking a swing for the fence and are bad decisions which have pushed them over $300 mil in salary/luxury tax which is just stupid for a team that may struggle to win 50 games. 

I think it's semantics to admit they did well by drafting those players but then saying they haven't made good decisions. They have made good decisions on the front end, it's the back end and retaining players where they have fallen short. I'll give them credit where credit is due though.  

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1 hour ago, MemphisX said:

This is perhaps my favorite article on the NBA in the internet age.  Finally, we can apply it to our situation again.

Blueprint for an NBA Championship Team

Also, keep in mind that we are probably 4-5 seasons away.  Hopefully JJJ can be a top 5 player in 4-5 seasons or at least a top 5 defender.  Between now and then we need to get the TWO sidekicks or potentially top 5 players while clearing cap space.

Also, I want to get rid of the Boston obligation and concentrate on the 2020-22 drafts. During this time we should not be signing anyone to long term deals unless they have top 5 player/defender potential.

One of my favs as well.

Had this discussion with a group of friends after the draft when they kept complaining about not taking a risk on the high offensive talent. You need both an elite level defense and offense to win a NBA Championship. The position we were in, I  was more than okay taking the guy with the highest upside. This is why I was okay with JJJ, but not as fond of Wendell (although he was a good prospect). 

I don't know if JJJ will be as good as a top 5-10 player in the league, but I do know he has a great shot at being a top 5 All-NBA Defender. Look at how Utah was able to bring in their offensive star last season after drafting Gobert some years ago. They have the DPOY and more than likely an All-NBA Talent after 1 season in the league. Now, what else they do with the team will determine how far they can go. It looks like they're content with re-signing their own players, though. Adding someone like Jabari Parker or if they were able to keep Gordon Hayward would've been ideal. 

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2 minutes ago, Ole Dirty Klondike said:

I would say drafting those players back to back to back were good decisions just as I would say drafting Thabeet #2 overall was a bad decision. They also drafted Serge Ibaka, Steven Adams and Reggie Jackson all good supporting roles players. i think it's fair to say they have been great talent evaluators to obtain talent but have failed on the back end of retaining that talent. I think the Melo trade was just plain stupid and same goes for PG contract which is not consistent with the model of evaluating talent and bringing it in. It's taking a swing for the fence and are bad decisions which have pushed them over $300 mil in salary/luxury tax which is just stupid for a team that may struggle to win 50 games. 

I think it's semantics to admit they did well by drafting those players but then saying they haven't made good decisions. They have made good decisions on the front end, it's the back end and retaining players where they have fallen short. I'll give them credit where credit is due though.  

I agree. That's where my winning the lottery comment came from. I think they have great talent evaluators and eventually they are going to start missing on the draft after such a high success rate early on. Outside of Adams in 2013, their 1st round picks have been Josh Huestis, Mitch McGary, Cameron Payne, Terrance Ferguson and Dominates Sabonis (who they traded in the Pacers deal). Right before that, they traded away Bledsoe, drafted Perry Jones and Reggie Jackson (who they traded). 

They are a team that knows how to draft talent, but don't quite understand on how to retain it and build around the talent. You just don't see teams lose talent at the rate they've lost it. Golden State could've easily fell into the same trap, but they've been able to maintain a happy internal organization. 

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OKC is almost sure to stretch Melo and push a good amount of money into the future. They won’t get completely out of the tax unless they shed some more salary but they’ll cut the bill by a whole lot.

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On 7/4/2018 at 1:17 PM, fanboyslim said:

OKC is almost sure to stretch Melo and push a good amount of money into the future. They won’t get completely out of the tax unless they shed some more salary but they’ll cut the bill by a whole lot.

Roughly $107 mil will be saved but they will still be paying over $200 mil in salary and taxes for a roster that may struggle to win 50 games and will consistently get knocked out in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Best comparison I heard was the Paul/Griffin/Jordan Clippers. A good team with talent that will go nowhere but cost a lot of money. 

Then again, we are paying $121 million to barely make the playoffs so it depends on how you look at things. 

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4 hours ago, Ole Dirty Klondike said:

Roughly $107 mil will be saved but they will still be paying over $200 mil in salary and taxes for a roster that may struggle to win 50 games and will consistently get knocked out in the 2nd round of the playoffs. 

I wouldn't mind seeing OKC owner Clay Bennett crash and burn financially. I'm sure he's not actually losing money though.

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JJJ has already shown that he has everything in the tool shed to be a superstar eventually. Plus we actually hired coaches who are proven to be elite in the player development department so I really like where things are headed in that regard. It’s scary how good he can be five years from now when he’s grown into his body.

It also feels like Chris Wallace is losing power in the FO - this has not been a Chris Wallace kind of summer. So that’s encouraging.

We are getting James Wiseman in 2020. It’s our turn.

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4 minutes ago, Thomas said:

JJJ has already shown that he has everything in the tool shed to be a superstar eventually. Plus we actually hired coaches who are proven to be elite in the player development department so I really like where things are headed in that regard. It’s scary how good he can be five years from now when he’s grown into his body.

It also feels like Chris Wallace is losing power in the FO - this has not been a Chris Wallace kind of summer. So that’s encouraging.

We are getting James Wiseman in 2020. It’s our turn.

How do you know who's responsible for the moves?

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1 minute ago, smit-tay griz said:

How do you know who's responsible for the moves?

I don’t know, but they are not congruent with the kind of moves that Wallace has made in the past. Signing Kyle Anderson isn’t something that Wallace would do, for example. If Wallace was still in charge, there’s no way Tyreke doesn’t get at least a phone call from us.

We seem to be headed toward a more analytics-driven decision making process and that’s not how Wallace rolls.

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13 minutes ago, Thomas said:

I don’t know, but they are not congruent with the kind of moves that Wallace has made in the past. Signing Kyle Anderson isn’t something that Wallace would do, for example. If Wallace was still in charge, there’s no way Tyreke doesn’t get at least a phone call from us.

We seem to be headed toward a more analytics-driven decision making process and that’s not how Wallace rolls.

Maybe he's not losing power.  Maybe he's just listening more to others he works with, or maybe he's just changing his philosophy.  Besides, isn't the consensus on the boards that the only reason that Tyreke didn't get a call was because Wallace just bungled it?

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11 minutes ago, smit-tay griz said:

Maybe he's not losing power.  Maybe he's just listening more to others he works with, or maybe he's just changing his philosophy.  Besides, isn't the consensus on the boards that the only reason that Tyreke didn't get a call was because Wallace just bungled it?

Perhaps. It’s just telling that they’re  trotting out Hollinger and Chris Makris more and more, and hiding Wallace from the public.

And I don’t know how that became the consensus but Wallace is not that stupid. He didn’t just suddenly sour on Tyreke inexplicably.

The team seems to be going in a more defense-first, team-first, analytics-driven direction. Maybe that signifies a shift in Wallace’s ideology. But I think it’s more likely that he’s losing power.

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7 minutes ago, Thomas said:

Perhaps. It’s just telling that they’re  trotting out Hollinger and Chris Makris more and more, and hiding Wallace from the public.

And I don’t know how that became the consensus but Wallace is not that stupid. He didn’t just suddenly sour on Tyreke inexplicably.

The team seems to be going in a more defense-first, team-first, analytics-driven direction. Maybe that signifies a shift in Wallace’s ideology. But I think it’s more likely that he’s losing power.

good post

I'm down with money ball - what other chance does small market without superstar have to compete?

we HAVE to be analytics driven IMO

give Hollinger the wheel lets see what he can do

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19 minutes ago, Thomas said:

Perhaps. It’s just telling that they’re  trotting out Hollinger and Chris Makris more and more, and hiding Wallace from the public.

And I don’t know how that became the consensus but Wallace is not that stupid. He didn’t just suddenly sour on Tyreke inexplicably.

The team seems to be going in a more defense-first, team-first, analytics-driven direction. Maybe that signifies a shift in Wallace’s ideology. But I think it’s more likely that he’s losing power.

IDK, Thomas, I don't even know what Wallace's ideology is.  He was the one that brought us Tony Allen (defense), and Zach (toughness).  I think some of that may have been at Heisley's direction though, to get us some defense and toughness, but I guess I gave a lot of credit for grit 'n' grind to Hollins, who was the one who made it work.

As for this new round of trying to recreate the old formula?  IDK whose idea it is, or if it will even work, but I am fond of defensive teams.

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On ‎7‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 5:42 AM, MemphisX said:

This is perhaps my favorite article on the NBA in the internet age.  Finally, we can apply it to our situation again.

Blueprint for an NBA Championship Team

Also, keep in mind that we are probably 4-5 seasons away.  Hopefully JJJ can be a top 5 player in 4-5 seasons or at least a top 5 defender.  Between now and then we need to get the TWO sidekicks or potentially top 5 players while clearing cap space.

Also, I want to get rid of the Boston obligation and concentrate on the 2020-22 drafts. During this time we should not be signing anyone to long term deals unless they have top 5 player/defender potential.

BIG problem for a small market team acquire a SUPERSTAR player.

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please let me know what SUPERSTAR player  whats to go to a small market team.

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3 minutes ago, lions said:

please let me know what SUPERSTAR player  whats to go to a small market team.

You have to either draft or trade for one and then hold on to him.

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Giannis Antetokounmpo  the greek freek contract is up in three years we will see if he resigns with the bucks 

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4 hours ago, Ole Dirty Klondike said:

You have to either draft or trade for one and then hold on to him.

most superstar have a non trade in there contract

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