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Thegoodguys

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Everything posted by Thegoodguys

  1. After another draft night I thought it would be interesting to hear people's takes on who were the winners and losers based on their projections. Obviously we won't really know for years down the road, but I think it would be fun to hear everybody's thoughts on the different teams and how well they did as well as players who went to good or bad situations. I'll go first. I think Detroit was one of the winners last night. Ivey is a really nice backcourt creator to pair with Cade and Duren looks like a potential switch everything center to anchor a versitile defense. Add in Procida who looks like he could be a nice 3&D wing down the road to pair with the other two picks, Cade, and Saddiq Bey which could be a nice starting lineup. New York Knicks have to be one of the losers. No idea what their long term plan is. OKC had a fun draft getting Chet and Dieng but I really enjoyed them drafting Jalen Williams (who I think will be really good) as well as Jaylin Williams (a different player with the same name) which will cause great confusion to their announcers.
  2. Thegoodguys

    Draft night winners and losers

    I really like Chet and Williams, but I like them a lot less on the thunder. I think chet should be used in the JJJ/Mobely role on defense as a 4 paired with a 5 but will struggle as a center where the thunder seem likely to play him. Jalen Williams seems fine as a 3&D wing where he will likely be used next to SGA and Giddey. I liked him better as a big guard used more as a shot creator and playmaker though. He would have been really nice next to Trae or Garland as a secondary playmaker or as a big PG replacing Dlo or next to Jalen Green. I just am not on the Dieng train. Not sure if it's just the stats or shot or what. Gives me Deni Avdija kinda vibes
  3. Thegoodguys

    Jake LaRavia

    Reminds me a lot of Grant Williams. Seems to be more of a 4 then a 3 to me
  4. What exactly does Sharpe do that Mathurin can't? I'd 100% go Mathurin because he has proved it against better competition.
  5. Most of the smaller YouTube guys are too hot takey for me. They are more interesting in saying something controversial to get clicks rather than what is right like Stephen A Smith does.
  6. Moore is quite a bit different than Bane imo. Moore shot really well this year but wasn't great the years before. I think he's much more of a catch and shoot kinda guy rather than somebody you run off of screens like Bane and I don't think he'll be a top 10 shooter in the league like Bane. Moore is a way better defender and passer than Bane though and he's got a 7'+ wingspan as opposed to Bane's negative 6'5" wingspan. I think Moore has the potential to be our starting wing replacing Dillon down the road as a 3&D know his role guy and the potential to fill in as the backup PG with his passing. Really good player that I think is worth the 22nd pick, but quite a bit different than Bane. I also see him as a target for Miami, Golden State, and Denver at the end of the first so he might not last to 29 depending on what those teams do.
  7. @ALT GRINDI usually just look at tankathon, highlight videos sometimes, and scouting reports like Adam Spinella's and that's about all I do
  8. Thanks! There are just so many prospects that I didn't feel like I could do them justice trying to rank everybody. Plus I read an article recently about how an average of 18 players per draft become rotational level players so I didn't try that hard. I also liked Spinella's sleepers except Travion Williams. He seems like a slow undersized center to me. I like Koloko and Williams, it's just hard to get a feel on more traditional centers. So many got played off the floor this year and a lot of those guys only fit on certain teams. Koloko seems a bit more athletic but older centers in the past few drafts do not have good track records. I really don't know what to make of Sharpe. Everything looks nice, but all 5 star prospects look like studs coming out of high school. I'm just glad I don't have to make that decision on him. I see no way he falls out of the top 10 and don't think the griz have any chance of trading up high enough to get him which is perfectly fine by me.
  9. Honestly forgot to put Sharpe on. I was going to put an unknown section for him by himself. I just don't think there is enough out there to draft a guy based on high school film. So many guys look great in high school then flop in college and I really don't like the fact that he chose not to play after he was given the go ahead. That being said Kevin Garnett and LeBron both went straight from high school to getting drafted and are Hall of Famers so I think it would all depend on the individual workouts and interviews. Jabari Walker looks like he could be a good defender but limited to shooting 3s out of the corner offensively but I also don't trust his shot. That's why I have him as a sleeper. If the offense translates I think he would be a good role player. I don't think it will in which case he would have a hard time sticking in the league
  10. @ALT GRIND I told you I would post my big board and thought this might be a good place that wouldn't clog up the NBA draft topic so here it is: 2022 NBA Draft Big Board My draft philosophies: 1. Draft for potential at the top of the lottery. NBA stars are hard to come by and anybody that is picking at the top of the lottery likely needs stars before they are anywhere near competing for championships. 2. Shooting is the most important attribute for guards and wings. If players can’t shoot at these positions, they need to be really strong in other areas to be able to find any role in the NBA. 3. After the initial high upside early lottery players, aim for role players that fill needs for your team. The best later picks are those with high floor and some upside, but there are only so many of those. Good teams are not just built upon star players, but complimentary teammates that hide those stars weaknesses and bring out their strengths. There is no better place to find cheap role players than the draft. 4. In the second-round teams can do what they want. Finding a player that makes an NBA roster long term is considered a win at this point. There’s nothing wrong with swinging for upside since most players don’t make it at this point, but finding a role player is also a win. Players: 1. Paolo Banchero- Athletic 6’10” forward with a 7’ wingspan. Excellent shot creator around the rim and out of the midrange. Also an excellent passer which is a compounding skill for his shooting. Shot 34% from 3 this year and 73% from the FT line so should be able to make 3s. Highest upside player in this draft with his offensive creation. Concerns with Banchero are similar to Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Edwards coming out of college. Shot selection needs to improve and Banchero can be disinterested on the defensive end. He also can be a ball stopper as he prefers to score out of isolation. These are all fixable issues with good coaching but could be problems in a bad situation. That’s on the coaching staff to iron out. 2. Mathurin- Excellent size and athleticism with elite shooting. Can score off the dribble, movement, and catch and shoot at a high level. If he improves his handle and passing/shot selection he has all star potential. Should be a good defender down the road but needs to refine this. High ceiling high floor. Comps: Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray 3. Chet- Excellent length and shot blocking ability. Good 3 point shooter and lateral quickness to switch onto the perimeter. Can handle the ball some. Good finisher. Needs more strength and should play 4 next to a center, not 5 or he will struggle with lack of strength. Some concerns about injuries due to potentially low bone density with his height and really low weight? Comp: Jaren Jackson Jr. 4. Ivey- Big guard with elite athleticism and finishing ability. Okay passer. Some concerns about 3 point shooting particularly off the dribble which would really limit ceiling if it does not translate. Really bad defender at this time which seems to be lack of understanding/anticipation and dying on screens which is more concerning to me than effort concerns. Could be an elite scorer if 3-point shot translates but a little more high risk/high reward 5. Jabari Smith- Good size and athleticism. Should be able to defend in the post and switch some. Not an elite shot blocker. Elite shooter for his position, should provide good spacing. Don’t think he’ll be able to create his own shot at a high level Comp: Al Horford 6. Jalen Williams- Big guard who can score on all 3 levels and is an excellent passer. Can already hit 3s at a high rate off the dribble and in spot up situations with some upside to score off movement. Decent defender with nice length. Not a great first step is the main knock on him. Could play any of the 3 backcourt positions. High ceiling and high floor Comp: SGA 7. Keegan Murray- Decent size and athleticism for position. Can space the floor and provide good defensive versatility. Good post scorer but game is kind of post centric at this point. Not a great first step and needs to improve his handle if he can ever develop an off the dribble game. 8. EJ Liddell- Strong PF with good shot blocking and athleticism to switch 2-5 defensively. Very good shot blocker and passer for position. High IQ player. Looks like he should be able to space the floor. Not a great low post scorer but can score against smaller players in mismatches. Don’t think he has much score creation potential. Would be nice if he was taller but he is about the same size as guys like Draymond Green, Paul Milsap, and PJ Tucker who have all had success at the position. Upside is defensively while providing adequate but not great offense. 9. Wendell Moore- Wing/big guard with nice length. Good ball handler, passer, shooter, and finisher. Excellent defender. High IQ player. Not a great first step and needs to improve his off the ball shooting to become a primary ball handler. Good 3/D defender with potential to play PG if the off the dribble jumper improves. 10. AJ Griffin- Big, strong wing that is an elite shooter. Really strong driver that can finish through contact. Limited quickness can’t beat guys off the dribble and a bad defender because of it. Serious injury concerns with 2 major lower leg injuries before the age of 19. 11. Jalen Duren- Super athletic and strong center with good size. Lob threat offensively. Could grow into that center that can switch everything. Questions on feel defensively and cannot shoot at all. Limited upside offensively. 12. Tari Eason- Athletic forward that is an elite defender. Excellent on the perimeter and good in the paint. The concern is can he provide enough on offense to not hurt his team on that end. Alright post scorer and lob finisher. Completely right hand dominant and horrible passer. Shooting numbers looked okay this year on low volume but were bad the years before and the shot looks mechanically flawed. If I had more confidence in the shot translating he would be higher. The numbers are okay even though it looks bad so I think he will be shooting between 30-33% in the NBA unless he really improves the mechanics of it. 13. Ochai Agbaji- Big guard that is a good shooter, defender, and lob threat. Can shoot at a high level off of movement and spot ups. Struggles shooting off the dribble and creating on offense. Much more of a tertiary spacer, shooter, and cutter offensively. He’s higher than some of the other 3 and D guys because of the defense and movement shooting. 14. Julian Champagnie- Combo forward/big wing that is an excellent shooter. Can shoot off movement, off the dribble, and in spot up situations. Has a good mid-range jumper and is a good cutter. Has a bit of a post-up game offensively and is a decent post defender. Is a good perimeter defender that should be able to switch 1-4 at a high level. Looks like a nice 3&D wing that could play some stretch 4. Doesn’t have a good first step offensively limiting his offensive upside and has some shot selection concerns which impacted overall shooting percentages. Unsure if he was asked to carry a heavy scoring load on a bad team or if he is a chucker. Comp: Saddiq Bey 15. Dalen Terry- Long wing that is excellent defensively and has the passing ability of a PG. Excellent assist/turnover ratio. Not good at creating his own shot off the dribble but can finish well. Some question on how good his 3 point shot is although it looks okay. Was not a high scorer in college which is somewhat concerning. 16. Christian Braun- 3&D guard. Really athletic and good defender. Good cutter and solid ball mover. Not much offensive creation/off the dribble upside and has a negative wingspan. Comp: slightly taller Grayson Allen 17. Malaki Branham- Wing with good length and self-creation in the midrange off of the PNR. Good spot up shooter. Struggles with off the dribble 3 pointers and hasn’t showed movement upside. Lacks quickness defensively and a quick first step offensively. Should be a decent defender because of his size. 18. Mark Williams- Strong, big, rim running and rim protecting center. Can score on post ups. Good rebounder, shot blocker and interior defender. Not sure he can develop any shooting range. Seems like he will have to play only in drop coverage due to his lateral quickness. 19. Christian Koloko- Big, rim running and rim protecting center. Good lateral quickness to play in drop or hard hedge. Good interior defender and shot blocker. Might be able to shoot a little. Needs to add strength and a post up game and is pretty old for a center prospect. 20. Johnny Davis- Big guard with a solid mid-range game. Strong defender but not super athletic or long. 3 point shot wasn’t great but could improve in different role. Really bad shot selection that might be a problem. Poor first step to get to the rim. Comp: Dillon Brooks 21. Jake LaRavia- Combo forward that can stretch the floor and stay in from of wings. Can drive a little and has a good post up game. Solid post defender but not a great shot blocker. Only a stand still catch and shoot 3 point shooter. Comp: Grant Williams 22. Max Christie- Combo guard that can create his shot in the midrange. Projects as a decent 3-point shooter and defender. Not a good finisher or much of a passer. Likely can fill a bench scorer role with some 3&D potential. 23. Jaden Hardy- Combo guard with a nice looking shot but was really inefficient in the G-league. Okay passer. Slow first step and really bad defender with both physical limitation and effort problems. Probably just a 6th man off the bench. Comp: Jamal Crawford 24. TyTy Washington- PG that can play off ball. Looks to have a nice shot and to be pretty good at running the pick and roll. Not a lot of upside due to lack of athleticism. Most likely a low end starter or good backup PG in the league. 25. Blake Wesley – Athletic combo guard with a really smooth looking game. Decent defender. Really inefficient in college so probably more of a bench scorer but could see some upside with the athleticism and nice looking shot. 26. Dyson Daniels- Big wing that is a good defender and passer. Has a nice floater. Not a good shooter. Poor athlete with a slow first step. Not a good finisher, gets blocked a lot. Comp: Kyle Anderson 2nd round Sleepers- These are guys that I think have a chance of becoming good role players depending on how they develop and what kind of opportunities they get. Some of these guys will likely be available as undrafted free agents as well. 1. Gabe Brown- 3&D wing 2. Andrew Nembhard- backup PG 3. Collin Gillespe- backup PG. Small but a really good shooter 4. John Butler- 3&D wing with nice length not much strength 5. Gabriele Procide- 3&D wing 6. Ryan Rollins- Back up/bench scorer 7. Keon Ellis- 3&D guard 8. Drew Peterson -backup PG 9. Ismael Kamagate- mobile 5? 10. Justin Lewis- 3&D wing? 11. Jabari Walker- Stretch 4 with questionable shot? 12. Ron Harper Jr.- Stretch 4? 13. Orlando Robinson- Stretch 5 14. Jordan Hall- Tall backup PG 15. Vince Williams Jr- 3&D guard 16. Kofi Cockburn- big cente
  11. Thegoodguys

    Offseason Moves and Plans

    I have a very different view of things. I think upside is good early in the draft but usually leads to misses later on. I also think trying to get the players in FA and trades leads to overpaying all your role players or missing out on the good ones because you are competing with all of the other teams in the league. That's why I'd prefer to get safer bets on the later parts of the draft. Cheap role players are hard to find and the best place to get them is in the draft
  12. I don't understand why people are so much higher on Ivey than Mathurin. Sure Ivey has elite athleticism, but there are major question marks about his defense and shooting which is a big deal. Think of the huge difference between ja last year and this year where last year teams sagged off of him and this year he could hit pull up 3s. If Ivey can't hit pull up 3s that is a huge limit to the guys ceiling. Mathurin also has good size and elite athleticism but elite shooting added to that. I see Jaylen Brown/Jamal Murray type of upside for him with a high floor because of the size, athleticism, and shooting. Plus he fits easier into more teams than Ivey because of the shooting.
  13. Since we have been doing some comps, what do people think of this one? Julian Champagnie and Saddiq Bey. Both older 3&D combo forwards that are good shooters and cutters. Can hit shots off of the dribble, movement, and spot up. Both had questions with their first step to beat guys off the dribble and shot selection question marks. Bey had a higher 3 point percentage, partly due to their situations, but they had similar college to pro NBA 3 point projections of 38% for Bey and 37% for Champagnie per tankathon. I think Champagnie will be the better defender but Bey the better scorer. We could really use a Saddiq Bey type player on this team.
  14. I never watched Jordan Adams, but I see Jalen Williams as more of a shai gilgeous-alexander than a khris Middleton type. More of a big guard than a wing with ball handling. The lack of elite burst but good shooting and passing and decent finishing because of the long wingspan and ability to finish well with either hand are why I see the comparison
  15. Thegoodguys

    Memphis Grizzlies and NBA Roster Moves

    This right here should be our plan. The only other guy I could see us trading up for is Duren to get another frontcourt guy that can switch and have a really versatile front court with Duren and JJJ. I prefer the plan that you laid out but could see that being another option if we are trying to move up.
  16. Absolutely want to wait to move up to make sure the guy you want is there imo. Spending assets to move up and then settle is not a good strategy. Yeah the Pels had a better draft than us last year at this point. Herb was the best player drafted by either team and Trey was similar to if not better than ZW but all those guys still have a lot of room for improvement.
  17. Thegoodguys

    Steal of the draft

    A few weeks ago I would have said Jalen Williams and Bennedict Mathurin were the most likely steals of the draft, but their stock may have risen too much. I've heard Williams being talked about as high as 12 and Mathurin at 5. Not sure if you can call guys taken that high steals or not even if they end up being one of the top 5-8 players in the draft.
  18. Thegoodguys

    Steal of the draft

    Since you asked go take a look at his horrible tankathon stats keeping in mind he played against some of the worst competition in college basketball. Then take a look at his combine numbers in which he tested as one of the worst athletes regardless of position. Basically all he does well is be tall and have a nice looking shot that didn't go in at a high rate in college. Sorry if that was too brutal but you asked me to talk you back out of him.
  19. Thegoodguys

    Steal of the draft

    Steal: Wendell Moore Jr Honorable mentions: Julian Champagnie, Gabe Brown, Christian Koloko, Collin Gillispe
  20. I read an interesting article today about the likelihood of drafting a good player based on career win shares in each draft. The author looked at 13 drafts and found each draft has on average 18 good players, 7 about all stars, and between 1 and 2 hall of famers. Obviously this fluctuates based on the draft so some drafts have higher numbers and some lower. In the lottery about 8.5 players end up good, in the second half of the first about 6 end up good, and in the second round and 3.5 end up good. Here is the article if anybody wants to take a look: https://www.on3.com/teams/kentucky-wildcats/news/defining-the-reality-of-the-nba-draft/ Curious what people's thoughts are. To me I felt like this reinforced my idea to swing for the fences at the top of the draft and then just try to get role players outside the lottery
  21. I see Al Horford as the best Jabari Smith comparison. Both have nice length and quickness to be able to switch and defend on the perimeter while providing solid post defense. Not elite shot blockers. Both are good shooters that space the floor and can finish plays. Can't really take guys off the dribble or create their own shots. Could play 5 but are probably most valuable next to a rim protecting 5. Good player but I don't see the superstar potential. Chet reminds me a lot of JJJ who I think has more potential than Horford. They have the length and lateral quickness to defend on the perimeter and in the post like the other two, but also have elite shot blocking. Good 3 point shooters and play finishers with a little more ability to beat certain mismatches off the dribble. Not going to win many post up battles offensively. Chet definitely fits better as a 4 next to a 5 than a 5 in the league. If he plays as a 5 I think he'll struggle due to his lack of strength but could thrive as a 4 adding additional shot blocking to his team. Really my only concerns with Chet is getting into an organization that views him as a 5 and not getting utilized properly and bone density. I'd want to have the medical staff do some testing just to make sure he isn't at high risk of developing foot fractures that a lot of those really skinny tall guys do.
  22. Who would be your target? No point in moving up unless you have a particular guy in mind. I also prefer moving up during the draft to make sure your guy is available. Seems more likely to make a reach of you miss out on the guy you wanted by trading predraft
  23. I don't put a ton of stock in most defensive metrics and rely more on eye test for defense. The really advanced metrics can show you a decent amount but D win shares, DPM, and DRating are really flawed. For example jaylin Williams from Arkansas looks to be a better defender than mark Williams and EJ Liddell based on those tankathon metrics which is obviously not true when you watch them play
  24. Just get a bunch of guys that can shoot and play defense to surround our big 3 and we solve both problems. Those guys have great value so they'll probably out play their draft positions
  25. He's a different level defender than those guys. Does enough on offense to keep his defense honest but you draft him for the defense
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