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About Thegoodguys

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  1. Thegoodguys

    Grizzlies/NBA trade deadline 2021 and beyond

    Durant's 3 point percentage projection based on college stats was 37.5%. His actual career 3 point percentage is 38%. Just like Grayson Allen's 3 point projection based on college stats is 38% which is the same as his career NBA 3 percentage. Their rookie seasons was not indicative of their career percentages, but the college models which use 3 point percentage, 3 point rate, and FT% were actuate. Those models seem pretty accurate most of the time especially when all of those indicators are either positive or negative. It's a less accurate when indicators contradict each other such as FT% and 3 point % like Ziaire. His projection is 35% fwiw. There are always guys that the models miss on, but usually it is pretty close. Also the guys that the model misses low on are almost always under 20 which is why age is considered an important variable for developing a 3 point shot.
  2. Thegoodguys

    Grizzlies/NBA trade deadline 2021 and beyond

    ZW shot 20% from 3 in summer league and less than 30% from 3 in college. There are absolutely questions about whether he can shoot the 3 ball in the league. If he can't he has the same problems as Culver. Wings that can't shoot 3s and space the floor cause all sorts of problems for your offense.
  3. Thegoodguys

    Grizzlies/NBA trade deadline 2021 and beyond

    I am hoping for the best as well. The FO must have trust in their shooting coach or they wouldn't be drafting and trading for guys that can't shoot. In my observations, it's hard to teach guys to shoot. Occasionally it works but usually guys either have it or they don't. Minimal improvements aren't unusual, but making a bad shooter into a good shooter with high volume is not the norm.
  4. Thegoodguys

    Grizzlies/NBA trade deadline 2021 and beyond

    My issue with ZW isn't upside. It is the floor. Murphy has a way higher floor. A shooter will find minutes in the league and his defense should make him a good player. Ziaire didn't really have a translatable college skill and his shooting is a big question mark. There's a fairly high chance that ZW ends up in the same position Culver is now. Wings that can't shoot are hard to play in the league. If ZW can't develop his shooting, then it will be hard for him to get minutes much less be a positive player.
  5. Thegoodguys

    Grizzlies/NBA trade deadline 2021 and beyond

    No idea. I wasn't following the grizzlies closely at the time. I was really hoping they were going to grab Moses Moody or Trey Murphy during this year's draft to fill that role at a discount, but that doesn't seem to be a priority of this FO at this point.
  6. Thegoodguys

    Grizzlies/NBA trade deadline 2021 and beyond

    100% right. Covington is a low usage offensive player that can space the floor. He's best at the 3, struggles with the size and rebounding needed at the 4. He's average to above average on ball defender, but an elite off ball defender with excellent positioning. He can get a lot of steals. I enjoyed watching him in Minnesota. Unfortunately they were all about the small ball lineups at that time and tried to use him as a 4 and as a creator which he struggled with.
  7. Yeah I don't think it's a good look to put your top 10 pick in the g league. That's not exactly inspiring confidence in your guy. I also don't think it's a good idea to play zw over better players when he doesn't out perform them. Hopefully he plays well and puts the debate to rest, but this might be a tricky situation for the griz to manage
  8. I agree with this. As somebody that follows both the wolves and grizzlies, Beasley seems like an older Bane that makes way more money. Beasley shoots more 3s but I think that is more due to the coaches prioritizing getting him shots while Jenkins has not done that for Bane. Not sure why we would give up assets to get a guy with the same skill set as somebody already on the roster but makes more money
  9. Kahwi also got signed off by the best shooting coach in history that they could fix his shot before they drafted him. That's a major difference
  10. I'm with you. Wings and guards pretty much need to be able to shoot to be good players. That's why I liked Moody, Trey, bouknight, and Miles McBride. They can shoot and have other skills
  11. I think the goal of this summer is to get value for JV, Grayson, and Kyle before they let them walk in free agency next summer because they will either get paid too much or don't fit the scheme (JV)
  12. Culver? Absolutely. He's a career 28% 3 point shooter and 50% FT shooter with a horrible hitch in his shot. Juancho can punish people from 3 but is not a good finisher at the rim
  13. As somebody that follows the t wolves as well here's my 2 cents. Juancho can shoot and that's it. He is also on a team option next year that can be declined if desired. Culver can do a bit of everything except shoot which is absolutely crippling to his game. He's actually the reason I am against drafting wings and guards that can't shoot. If we have a good shooting coach, there is a chance he could be a good player, as it currently stands it's hard to play him. Overall not a bad trade since we didn't give up much
  14. Thegoodguys

    The Ziaire Williams Guide

    I think it will be ja/bane/brooks/Kyle/JJJ but could also see Clarke in Kyle's spot, melton in bane's spot, or Tillman at center with JJJ at the 4 and Kyle coming off the bench. I think part of the reason for the JV trade is they decided they needed a more mobile center
  15. Thegoodguys

    Welcome to Memphis Ziaire Williams and Santi Aldama!!!

    Same. If they would have stayed at their spots they could have gotten Moody or bouknight and McBride or Ayo, or Jared Butler, or Queta. There were a lot of guys that were good college players with definable skills available and some of them have pretty nice upside. I just don't like betting on size and athleticism as a players main attributes. Hopefully the weird year hid some of zw's skills and the game slows down and shots go down for Santi, but things aren't looking great for our home run swings. Nice thing is that zw seems to have good BBIQ and effort which are needed to make big improvements.