Grizzled Vet

The 2018 Free Agents

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Ship has sailed on moving Marc for any type of serviceable return.   May as well keep him now.   

If we strike out on resigning Tyreke then give me Will The Thrill. 

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20 hours ago, lsugrizzfan said:

Avery Bradley is the new Jeff Green- tons of hype yet his teams keep performing better when he is not on the court. Count me out on Bradley. Although you are right- he will be out of our price range.

The team will try to use it's MLE on Tyreke. I don't think it will be enough. My next target is the same as you, Will Barton. Unfortunately, I don't think the MLE gets him either. 

My next target would be Mario Hezonja. The problem with Hezonja is I'd want to see him keep up his recent play for the rest of the year before I'd offer him. Of course, if he keeps playing like he has the last eight games (super small sample size) the rest of the season, he may get offers that are more than the MLE. If he can't keep up the play, I wouldn't be interested.

Regardless, no way I sign a free agent coming off an injury (I'm jaded) or over the age of 28.

Not sure where your getting that from but Bradley was a key piece for the #1 seed Celtics last year the Pistons were on pace to improve their record from last season with him  and the Clippers are 5-1 since trading for him. Bradley is basically TA with a reliable  3 pt shot

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Regarding the Grizzlie's free agents:

Each time I watch Chalmers flop around or grab a guy and then complain about getting fouled, I find myself looking forward to him not being around anymore.  I appreciate his work from 2016, and if I felt like he was improving as the year went on, I would be happy to try to retain  him, but he's really hard to cheer for right now.

I don't expect Brice to be around next year, but I would like to see if he's worthy of a training camp invite.

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23 minutes ago, Grizzled Vet said:

Regarding the Grizzlie's free agents:

Each time I watch Chalmers flop around or grab a guy and then complain about getting fouled, I find myself looking forward to him not being around anymore.  I appreciate his work from 2016, and if I felt like he was improving as the year went on, I would be happy to try to retain  him, but he's really hard to cheer for right now.

I don't expect Brice to be around next year, but I would like to see if he's worthy of a training camp invite.

Simmons may end up being a nobody, but I just dont see any benefit to not trying to play him or someone who could earn a spot next year over Chalmers.

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3 hours ago, Allen said:

Not sure where your getting that from but Bradley was a key piece for the #1 seed Celtics last year the Pistons were on pace to improve their record from last season with him  and the Clippers are 5-1 since trading for him. Bradley is basically TA with a reliable  3 pt shot

Hardwood Paroxysm's twitter account (@HPbasketball). It is Matt Moore who used to write for CBS Sports and now writes for The Action Network. He cites the stats all the time. He basically agrees that watching Avery Bradley you see he is a good one on one defender. However, the on/off splits of his teams for the last three years show the team plays better team defense when he is out of the game. The teams have had a better point differential with him on the bench than when he is on the floor.

You talk about the Clippers being 5-1 since he was traded there. According to NBA.com, the team is an average of +.5 while he is on the floor, a half point better per game. Yet in those same 6 games, the Clippers are winning by an average of 5.83 point per game. So, even in an extremely small sample size, the team is performing better when he isn't in the game.

This is exactly like Jeff Green. People used to watch Jeff Green and wonder how he was so good yet the team was better when he wasn't playing. Finally people just accepted that he doesn't help teams win. Sooner or later people will come to the same realization on Bradley.

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7 hours ago, Dwash said:

Simmons may end up being a nobody, but I just dont see any benefit to not trying to play him or someone who could earn a spot next year over Chalmers.

Troy Williams got waived. I'd bring him in, waive Chalmers and let Simmons run the point. We already know what Harrison can do. We can call on him any time. Williams seems to be more of a true SF, which is what we lack, he's not a combo (which we got a ton of)

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No big time free agents are gonna come here while our 3 big $ contracts are here.  Memphis won't even be considered.  First, who wants to play the grizz offense going through gasol all the time.  Plus grizz just don't have the money.  This team won't be much better next year unless some miracles happen.   They need to start over.

 

Grizz FO is gonna stay stuck on stupid apparently.  This team around these so called star players is done.

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6 hours ago, BigHunkALove said:

Troy Williams got waived. I'd bring him in, waive Chalmers and let Simmons run the point. We already know what Harrison can do. We can call on him any time. Williams seems to be more of a true SF, which is what we lack, he's not a combo (which we got a ton of)

But would you give him a guaranteed contract?

I think he's going to have offers.  I don't know how many years/type of money & guarantees he would accept or be worth.

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20 hours ago, lsugrizzfan said:

Hardwood Paroxysm's twitter account (@HPbasketball). It is Matt Moore who used to write for CBS Sports and now writes for The Action Network. He cites the stats all the time. He basically agrees that watching Avery Bradley you see he is a good one on one defender. However, the on/off splits of his teams for the last three years show the team plays better team defense when he is out of the game. The teams have had a better point differential with him on the bench than when he is on the floor.

You talk about the Clippers being 5-1 since he was traded there. According to NBA.com, the team is an average of +.5 while he is on the floor, a half point better per game. Yet in those same 6 games, the Clippers are winning by an average of 5.83 point per game. So, even in an extremely small sample size, the team is performing better when he isn't in the game.

This is exactly like Jeff Green. People used to watch Jeff Green and wonder how he was so good yet the team was better when he wasn't playing. Finally people just accepted that he doesn't help teams win. Sooner or later people will come to the same realization on Bradley.

Those kinds of stats are so silly. Bradley guards the other teams best perimeter player and only comes out the game when that player comes out the game so of course the numbers would say something like that. And maybe the Celtics bench is just better than other teams benches

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2 hours ago, Allen said:

Those kinds of stats are so silly. Bradley guards the other teams best perimeter player and only comes out the game when that player comes out the game so of course the numbers would say something like that. And maybe the Celtics bench is just better than other teams benches

People used similar excuses for Jeff Green for years. Eventually you'll catch on.

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2 hours ago, lsugrizzfan said:

People used similar excuses for Jeff Green for years. Eventually you'll catch on.

The real question is will Chris Wallace ever catch on? 

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4 hours ago, lsugrizzfan said:

People used similar excuses for Jeff Green for years. Eventually you'll catch on.

Jeff Green has never been a good defender though. I will discount any stat that says having an All defensive 1st team caliber defender on your team is a bad thing.

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50 minutes ago, Allen said:

Jeff Green has never been a good defender though. I will discount any stat that says having an All defensive 1st team caliber defender on your team is a bad thing.

Good individual defender, bad team defender is how Matt Moore describes it. I know this is an apples to oranges comparison but Derek Jeter used to win gold gloves in baseball. Every statistical analysis available says he was one of the worst defensive shortstops in major league history. But he won based on reputation. Bradley has a great reputation. The stats just don't back it up.

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2 hours ago, chipc3 said:

The real question is will Chris Wallace ever catch on? 

I hope we don't need him to. I hope there is someone else in charge.

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54 minutes ago, lsugrizzfan said:

Good individual defender, bad team defender is how Matt Moore describes it. I know this is an apples to oranges comparison but Derek Jeter used to win gold gloves in baseball. Every statistical analysis available says he was one of the worst defensive shortstops in major league history. But he won based on reputation. Bradley has a great reputation. The stats just don't back it up.

Maybe, but in a playoff series you can put Avery Bradley on a backcourt scorer and for that whole series he gone have to respect him. Then he can make o0en shots and he hustles. Jeff Green checks out in every facet of the game.

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So I went to NBA.com and looked up opponents shooting percentages against Avery Bradley. The website breaks down the shooting percentages into ranges: less than 5 feet, 5-9 feet, 10-14 feet, 15-19 feet, 20-24 feet, 25-29 feet. I've included a couple of defensive stalwarts as people to compare Bradley to- Ben McLemore and Damian Lillard (sarcasm intended)

Bradley: 63.2%, 40%, 44.1%, 41.4%, 39.7%, 38%

McLemore: 60.7%, 36.6%, 41.6%, 36.1%, 36.6%, 36.9%

Lillard: 55.6%, 44.6%, 41.9%, 42.6%, 39.5%, 36.1%

I think extremely low of McLemore, but maybe I shouldn't. After all, he is holding opponents to a lower shooting percentage in every range than Bradley. So I moved on to Lillard because every one always screams "Conley is better than Lillard because Lillard can't play defense." And Lillard's percentages are eerily similar to Bradley's. So either Lillard is an all NBA defender now or maybe Bradley is overrated and overhyped.

I thought I was done with this, then I thought of your response: But Bradley always has to guard the best guys on the other team. Of course they are going to shoot higher percentages. So I decided to look at some guys who always take on the top perimeter threat from the other team- Andre Roberson, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson.

Roberson: 62.5%, 39.6%, 37.6%, 30.8%, 39.3%, 28.7%

Butler: 64.9%, 37.3%, 38.6%, 38.6%, 36.2%, 35.7%

Thompson: 60.1%, 33.7%, 35%, 39.8%, 34%, 36.4%

Ouch! Wow, Bradley loses every category except less than 5 feet against Jimmy Butler. So please forgive me if I just don't believe in Bradley.

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I'm not opposed to Avery Bradley on a cheap deal which is probably less than he'll get elsewhere.

I would rather the MLE go to Tyreke versus Bradley.

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21 hours ago, lsugrizzfan said:

Good individual defender, bad team defender is how Matt Moore describes it. I know this is an apples to oranges comparison but Derek Jeter used to win gold gloves in baseball. Every statistical analysis available says he was one of the worst defensive shortstops in major league history. But he won based on reputation. Bradley has a great reputation. The stats just don't back it up.

Not exactly a good analogy. A lot of people assume the Golden Glove is given to the best defensive player at each position in baseball; it's not. It's given to the player at each position with the lowest error percentage. That stat only measure the number of errors committed by the player once they are involved in a play. Jeter may not have gotten to as many balls as other shortstops,  but he didn't boot or throw away the ball if he touched it. His Golden Gloves are a recognition for being smart enough to know his own limitations. 

 

So, Bradley is great at his one thing he does, but not necessarily at the total defense concept.

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On 2/17/2018 at 11:34 AM, Wells said:

Not exactly a good analogy. A lot of people assume the Golden Glove is given to the best defensive player at each position in baseball; it's not. It's given to the player at each position with the lowest error percentage. That stat only measure the number of errors committed by the player once they are involved in a play. Jeter may not have gotten to as many balls as other shortstops,  but he didn't boot or throw away the ball if he touched it. His Golden Gloves are a recognition for being smart enough to know his own limitations. 

 

So, Bradley is great at his one thing he does, but not necessarily at the total defense concept.

While agree with the comment about Bradley, which is why I don't want him, you have the Gold Glove thing all wrong. Managers and coaches vote for the winners, except they can't vote for their own players. https://www.rawlings.com/site-content/gold-glove-selection-criteria.html. Now certain manager and coaches may just look at fielding percentages and vote that way, but that is not how the award is given. In fact Jeter only led the AL in fielding percentage twice since 2000 (ESPN.com only went back that far). He led in 2009 and 2010; despite leading in 2010, he had a negative DWAR due to his extremely limited range. 

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8 hours ago, lsugrizzfan said:

While agree with the comment about Bradley, which is why I don't want him, you have the Gold Glove thing all wrong. Managers and coaches vote for the winners, except they can't vote for their own players. https://www.rawlings.com/site-content/gold-glove-selection-criteria.html. Now certain manager and coaches may just look at fielding percentages and vote that way, but that is not how the award is given. In fact Jeter only led the AL in fielding percentage twice since 2000 (ESPN.com only went back that far). He led in 2009 and 2010; despite leading in 2010, he had a negative DWAR due to his extremely limited range. 

That's the current criteria, which has only been in effect since 2011. There are older methods.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rawlings_Gold_Glove_Award

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1 hour ago, QMemphis said:

Grizz top targets in order should be Tyreke Evans, Avery Bradley,  or Will Barton 

Exactly

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