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Wells

Tanking - A Historical Perspective, rather than Hysterical

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On 2/10/2018 at 6:04 AM, MemphisX said:

Who has ever said that?  Nobody.  Just a strawman...

People have been saying trade Marc/Mike/ZBo when they had value to accelerate the rebuild.  See the reason why rebuilds usually take so long is because organizations wait until the roster is bare and try to build by using SOLELY their draft picks.  So like instead of having 2 lottery picks this year, we will have one because people think keeping Marc/Mike is going to lead us somewhere.  It will be followed by a lack luster year in which we likely lose our 1st round pick and then Mike/Marc will have ZERO value.  So now we are looking at Miles Bridges and a bunch of 2nd round picks with whatever is left of Mike Conley...and so begins the EXTENDED rebuild.

Yes. Danny Ainge's trick was flipping his assets before their expiration date. He's still doing it, actually.

 

On 2/10/2018 at 12:49 AM, Wells said:

Statistically, it looks sound.  The only problem I see is how often teams that fall into the worst three teams tend to remain in that group for extended years. Getting a high draft pick does not mean that your team automatically turns around.  Most of the top draft picks in this 24 year retrospective have not been “once in a generation” players, contrary to the hype they had entering the draft.

 

Statistically, it IS sound. It's all based on probabilities. The probabilities don't guarantee any equitable outcome in a single year, and small sample sizes tend to have great variance (and the entire history of the lottery still counts as a small sample size), but over time the outcomes trend towards the beginning odds.

The John Hollinger and Chris Wallace argument that tanking wouldn't necessarily work out for the team is an attempt to say what I just said about the probabilities. But, their interpretation of the probabilities seems to be skewed. They seem to be trying to suggest that if you end up with a bottom-3 record, in any single lottery year you could still end up with the fifth or sixth pick (and there is no chance of finishing seventh or lower), so therefore it's not worth even trying. But, as Hollinger at least surely knows, the PROBABILITY of that worst case scenario happening is slim, if indeed that is their argument.

You can't protest the lottery system and ever hope to beat the system. After all, the probabilities are against it.  

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On 2/10/2018 at 7:03 AM, Kevin B Moses said:

 

Take five guys and develop an identity with them. I believe that we have a core of 3 to 4 guys already that we could do this with.

Harrison, Brooks, Rabb and to a lesser extend: martin and selden. My opinion is that the one thing missing from this team is a big center next to Rabb. Bamba. And a top flight sg.

If the team would just listen to me: harrison, brooks, Rabb and Bamba would be a top 10 team if you give them time.    

There is no way on Gods green earth that those guys are more than 5th starter to bench role players on a championship team. Name me a team that hasn’t had multiple AllStar players that won a championship, you won’t because it doesn’t exist. Stars are necessary in the NBA, and we have 1 that will be washed up due to age in short order. 

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An interesting take from Zach Lowe on how tanking affects lineups, featuring the Grizzlies:

Quote

6. Retrograde lineups of the tank brigade

The Grizzlies have been giving heavy minutes to lineups featuring Jarell Martin, JaMychal Green and Marc Gasol -- two power forwards and a center. For stretches of their completely unwatchable foul-fest against Phoenix on Wednesday, they had Martin guarding Elfrid Payton. You won't believe this, but it went poorly -- and those super-big lineups cannot score, like, at all. Also: Has any coach told Marquese Chriss that fouling is bad? Does he think it's good?

The Kings have been playing retrograde double-center lineups all season, and they stepped it up in Monday's loss/win against Minnesota by sliding Bruno Caboclo -- still two years away from being two years away, and maybe a few months away from China -- to small forward alongside Skal Labissiere and Kosta Koufos.

With Ersan Ilyasova gone, the Hawks now have (basically) four centers, and they've dabbled a bit with the biggest, least rangy combination of them: Dewayne Dedmon and Former Inexplicable Starter Miles Plumlee. I wrote about the Knicks' bastardized lineups last week.

Justin Holiday plays only when Zach LaVine doesn't, and Chicago has transitioned Robin Lopez into a role as hipster chic sideline model. Remember when the NBA said it might penalize teams for resting multiple healthy starters in the same game -- especially in road games? Yeah, the Bulls don't either.

Some of these wackadoo lineups are the semi-intended results of deadline moves aimed at rebuilding: Atlanta buying out Ersan Ilyasova, the Grizz swapping a functional wing (James Ennis) for a second-round pick, New York nabbing another point guard who can't shoot, the Kings sending George Hill to Cleveland. Tyreke Evans and Mike Conley are injured. Chandler Parsons is sick. Most of Memphis' perimeter players -- the guys who should be playing on the wing instead of Martin -- have been awful.

But at least they are, you know, perimeter players. You paid Ben McLemore almost $11 million knowing he would screw up endlessly on his uncertain journey to NBA competence. Let him screw up instead of shoehorning Martin into a position he can't play! Call up Kobi Simmons! Do something!

All of these teams know very well that these lineups don't work. Half of these late-season injuries wouldn't keep guys out of games that mattered.

Something I've always wondered: Teams defend late-season tankery by screaming "player development," but how much functional development comes from shoving young guys into uncomfortable roles amid lineups that don't make sense? How much value is there in letting Josh Jackson fling up floater after floater (even if he's making a lot lately)?

There is some value letting guys stretch their skill sets. Might there also be a cost? I don't know. I do know that anyone paying to watch something like Grizzlies-Suns should get League Pass free next season.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22619154/zach-lowe-10-things-like-including-anthony-davis-brilliance-nba

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Great Info. I think it also shows that you are probably good to try and trade future draft picks for "can't miss" players rather than tank. Tanking happens only if you deplete the current roster of all talent. One player with a bunch of scrubs will not win in the NBA today. You are probably better off trying to win with the talent you have, while scouting out the best young talent, and being shrewd in positioning yourself to trade up in a particular draft (by offering future picks) to get that player.

Tanking is more risk than reward. You lose games, fans, and free agents if you tank too hard for too long. But, if you are competitive, and you see a can't miss prospect that will go in the lottery, offer up future picks and possibly a good vet rotational guy for him. That way, you add elite talent to a talented, winning team, rather than to a scrub, losing team. And, possible FA's won't mind coming to your team because they could make a deep run in the Playoffs immediately and not have to be part of a years long rebuild.

Scouting is key in this plan though, because you would have to trade away future picks, so the prospect has to be an dynamic and high impact player right away and for years to come. Doesn't have to be Hall of Fame or G.O.A.T. worthy (can't necessarily plan for that kind of talent), but they have to be an elite contemporary player with regular all-star appearances at least, to make the draft picks worth it. The only way to know this is through scouting, good scouting that actually formulate your draft and team structure.  

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3 hours ago, Blackwatch said:

Great Info. I think it also shows that you are probably good to try and trade future draft picks for "can't miss" players rather than tank. Tanking happens only if you deplete the current roster of all talent. One player with a bunch of scrubs will not win in the NBA today. You are probably better off trying to win with the talent you have, while scouting out the best young talent, and being shrewd in positioning yourself to trade up in a particular draft (by offering future picks) to get that player.

Tanking is more risk than reward. You lose games, fans, and free agents if you tank too hard for too long. But, if you are competitive, and you see a can't miss prospect that will go in the lottery, offer up future picks and possibly a good vet rotational guy for him. That way, you add elite talent to a talented, winning team, rather than to a scrub, losing team. And, possible FA's won't mind coming to your team because they could make a deep run in the Playoffs immediately and not have to be part of a years long rebuild.

Scouting is key in this plan though, because you would have to trade away future picks, so the prospect has to be an dynamic and high impact player right away and for years to come. Doesn't have to be Hall of Fame or G.O.A.T. worthy (can't necessarily plan for that kind of talent), but they have to be an elite contemporary player with regular all-star appearances at least, to make the draft picks worth it. The only way to know this is through scouting, good scouting that actually formulate your draft and team structure.  

Ain't that the truth.

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6 minutes ago, Dwash said:

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/4/9/17214238/philadelphia-76ers-process-sam-hinkie-nba-playoffs

Stop whining about how rebuilds never work and you are doomed to lose forever. Lol. Losing culture comes from players who suck. 

And from front offices that can't draft, make trades or sign decent free agents. 

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54 minutes ago, chipc3 said:

And from front offices that can't draft, make trades or sign decent free agents. 

Then thats the real problem. Not losing a few games.

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