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Everything posted by Wells

  1. 2018 NBA Draft Thread

    What this NCAA tournament has shown is that a lot of people that make a living because they know basketball are being shown to not know as much about basketball as they led the public to believe.
  2. Grizzlies sign Xavier Rathan-Mayes to a 10-day

    We needed a point guard, so we got a point guard.
  3. So, I had some free time tonight, and decided to do some investigation into just how successful previous Tank movements have been in getting high level players into franchises that really needed a turnaround. My personal hind-brain memories are that it hasn’t really worked, but memory is subjective, so better to actually look at the history rather than just rely on gut feeling. The NBA Draft Lottery in its current form has only been around since 1994, with the worst team having 25% of the possible combinations, the second worst having 19.9%, the third with 15.6%, all the way down to the last lottery team only having 0.5%. This upcoming Draft will be the last lottery with this format, as the 2019 draft will have the three worst teams all having 14% of the combinations. This means there have been 24 lotteries conducted under the current format. Seventy-two teams have had the three worst records in that time, so how many of those teams have been lottery winners, receiving a top three pick? Surprisingly, only once (in 2016) has every lottery pick fallen in record order. Only four times has the team with the truly worst record won the number one pick, and three of those have occurred in the last three years (Minnesota, Philadelphia & Brooklyn). The other time was Orlando in 2004 when they drafted Dwight Howard. So, here’s a glimpse of how tanking has done since 1994: 1994: Worst teams – Dallas (worst), Detroit & Milwaukee (tied) 1994: Top three picks - Milwaukee (Glenn Robinson), Dallas (Jason Kidd), Detroit (Grant Hill) 1995: Worst teams - Clippers (worst), Washington & Minnesota (tied) 1995: Top three picks – Golden State (Joe Smith), Clippers (Antonio McDyess), Philadelphia (Jerry Stackhouse) 1996: Worst teams – Vancouver, Philadelphia, Toronto 1996: Top three picks – Philadelphia (Allen Iverson), Toronto (Marcus Camby), Vancouver (Shareef Abdul Rahim) Toronto actually won the lottery in 1996, but because of an agreement they and Vancouver made with the League as expansion teams in 1995, both teams agreed to forfeit the number one pick in the 1996, 1997 and 1998 Drafts if they should win the lottery, and take the number two pick instead. 1997: Worst teams – Vancouver, Boston, San Antonio 1997: Top three picks – San Antonio (Tim Duncan), Philadelphia (Keith van Horn), Boston (Chauncey Billups) 1998: Worst teams – Denver, Toronto, Clippers 1998: Top three picks – Clippers (Michael Olowokandi), Vancouver (Mike Bibby), Denver (Raef LaFrentz) Vancouver actually won the 1998 lottery, but had to forfeit and pick second due to their expansion agreement. 1999: Worst teams – Vancouver, Clippers, Chicago 1999: Top three picks – Chicago (Elton Brand), Vancouver (Steve Francis), Charlotte (Baron Davis) 2000: Worst teams – Clippers, Chicago, Golden State 2000: Top three picks – New Jersey (Kenyon Martin), Vancouver (Stromile Swift), Clippers (Darius Miles) 2001: Worst teams – Chicago, Golden State, Washington 2001: Top three picks – Washington (Kwame Brown), Clippers (Tyson Chandler), Atlanta (Pau Gasol) 2002: Worst teams – Chicago & Golden State (tied), Memphis 2002: Top Three Picks – Houston (Yao Ming), Chicago (Jay Williams), Golden State (Mike Dunleavy) 2003: Worst teams – Cleveland & Denver (tied), Toronto 2003: Top three picks – Cleveland (LeBron James), Detroit (Darko Milicic), Denver (Carmelo Anthony) The Detroit pick actually belonged to Memphis, but had been traded in 1997 for Otis Thorpe. 2004: Worst teams – Orlando, Chicago, Washington 2004: Top three picks –Orlando (Dwight Howard), Charlotte (Emeka Okafor), Chicago (Ben Gordon) The second pick was won by the Clippers, but had been traded to Charlotte three weeks before the draft, in a deal where the Bobcats agreed to draft Clipper player Predrag Drobnjak in the Expansion draft. 2005: Worst teams – Atlanta, Charlotte, New Orleans 2005: Top three picks – Milwaukee (Andrew Bogut), Atlanta (Marvin Williams), Utah (Deron Williams) Portland originally won the third pick, but traded it for the sixth and 27th picks a few hours before the draft. 2006: Worst teams – Portland, New York, Atlanta 2006: Top three picks – Toronto (Andrea Bargnani), Portland (LaMarcus Aldridge), Charlotte (Adam Morrison) New York originally won the second pick, but traded it to Chicago, who then traded it to Portland. 2007: Worst teams – Memphis, Boston, Milwaukee 2007: Top three picks – Portland (Greg Oden), Seattle (Kevin Durant), Atlanta (Al Horford) 2008: Worst teams – Miami, Seattle, Minnesota 2008: Top three picks – Chicago (Derrick Rose), Miami (Michael Beasley), Minnesota (O. J. Mayo) 2009: Worst teams – Sacramento, Washington, Oklahoma City 2009: Top three picks – Clippers (Blake Griffin), Memphis (Hasheem Thabeet), Oklahoma City (James Harden) 2010: Worst teams – New Jersey, Minnesota, Sacramento 2010: Top three picks – Washington (John Wall), Philadephia (Evan Turner), New Jersey (Derrick Favors) 2011: Worst teams – Minnesota, Cleveland, Toronto 2011: Top three picks – Cleveland (Kyrie Irving), Minnesota (Derrick Williams), Utah (Enes Kanter) Ironically, the Cleveland pick was not their own. The Clippers won the first pick, but had traded it in February along with Baron Davis for Mo Williams and Jamario Moon. Cleveland’s own pick was fourth for Tristan Thompson. The third pick was originally won by New Jersey, but was traded to Utah for Deron Williams. 2012: Worst teams – Charlotte, Cleveland & New Orleans (tied) 2012: Top three picks – New Orleans (Anthony Davis), Charlotte (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist), Washington (Bradley Beal) 2013: Worst teams – Orlando, Charlotte, Cleveland 2013: Top three picks – Cleveland (Anthony Bennett), Orlando (Victor Oladipo), Washington (Otto Porter) 2014: Worst teams – Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Orlando 2014: Top three picks – Cleveland (Andrew Wiggins), Milwaukee (Jabari Parker), Philadelphia (Joel Embiid) 2015: Worst teams – Minnesota, New York, Philadelphia 2015: Top three picks – Minnesota (Karl-Anthony Towns), Lakers (D’Angelo Russell), Philadelphia (Jahlil Okafor) 2016: Worst teams - Philadelphia, Lakers, Brooklyn 2016: Top three picks – Philadelphia (Ben Simmons), Lakers (Brandon Ingram), Boston (Jaylen Brown) Brooklyn won the third pick, but had traded it to Boston in 2013. 2017: Worst teams – Brooklyn, Phoenix, Lakers 2017: Top three picks – Philadelphia (Markelle Fultz), Lakers (Lonzo Ball), Boston (Jayson Tatum) The original number one pick was won by Brooklyn, who had traded it to Boston in 2013. Boston traded the pick to Philadelphia for the third pick. Philadelphia had gotten the third pick from Sacramento, due to a trade in 2015. So, what does all this history tell us? 42 of the 72 teams would have gotten a top three pick (58.3%), so long as they had not traded it to someone else. There has only been one year where a top three pick has not gone to at least one team with one of the three worst records (95.8%). Having the worst record gets you a top three pick in 19 out of 24 cases (79.2%), provided you haven’t traded the pick away previously. Statistically, it looks sound. The only problem I see is how often teams that fall into the worst three teams tend to remain in that group for extended years. Getting a high draft pick does not mean that your team automatically turns around. Most of the top draft picks in this 24 year retrospective have not been “once in a generation” players, contrary to the hype they had entering the draft.
  4. The 2018 Free Agents

    That's the current criteria, which has only been in effect since 2011. There are older methods. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rawlings_Gold_Glove_Award
  5. The 2018 Free Agents

    Not exactly a good analogy. A lot of people assume the Golden Glove is given to the best defensive player at each position in baseball; it's not. It's given to the player at each position with the lowest error percentage. That stat only measure the number of errors committed by the player once they are involved in a play. Jeter may not have gotten to as many balls as other shortstops, but he didn't boot or throw away the ball if he touched it. His Golden Gloves are a recognition for being smart enough to know his own limitations. So, Bradley is great at his one thing he does, but not necessarily at the total defense concept.
  6. Coming out of college, most of 90's top three were being billed much like this year's crop of potential draft stars. Everybody was can't miss, until they became can'ts.
  7. Well, if we are being honest, only ten of the 72 have won rings at all (~14%).
  8. The 9th place team has about a 1 in 50 chance of a top three pick. Oddly enough, 9th has bucked the odds twice in 24 years and snagged the first pick: Chicago for Derrick Rose, and the Cavs for Andrew Wiggins. It's below 9th where things get bad.
  9. You are misreading my intent in this work. Going into this last night when I did this, my thought was that tanking did not work because being one of the three worst teams did not result in getting a top three pick in the majority of cases. My research shows that it does, but not overwhelmingly. If you get a top pick, it is still incumbent on the team to pick the right player. Btw, under the current setup, the fifth worst team has a 10% chance at a top 3 pick, so if 10% is good enough for you, then don't bemoan an occasional win.
  10. Fire Chris Wallace NOW

    The number one pick that year Hakeem Olajuwan.
  11. 2018 trade deadline thread

    Why not? Name any good draft picks that West made as GM here.
  12. 2018 trade deadline thread

    What I heard was that it was Jerry West that suggested Thabeet to Heisley. West was still serving as an advisor at that point.
  13. Inverted Standings Watch

    And just like that, the Knicks join the tanking race.
  14. Memphis @ Toronto 02/04/18

    Not competing with the Super Bowl
  15. 2018 trade deadline thread

    My suspicion is that the possible trade is with Toronto. It would make sense in that scenario to pull him while on the road trip, but not finalize the trade until after the game Sunday. Tyreke stays with the team until then, then takes his physicals in Toronto.
  16. Really? The Grizzlies currently have the seventh worst record, with the Nets likely to drop below them. All of the teams with worse records are not likely to get better, and the Clippers have joined tank crew. The playoffs are closer than a top three pick.
  17. Memphis @ Detroit 02/01/18

    Coming down to the wire again. I think everyone on the team is trying to tell the radio talking heads that they shouldn't give up on this team. The playoffs is possible if they would just let them try.
  18. Memphis @ Indiana 01/31/18

    The draft is a crap shoot. For every LeBron or Durant, there are three Kwame Brown, Ralph Sampson or Pervis Ellison. I would rather watch winning basketball than spend my time hoping we manage to get a golden ticket. And even the golden ticket only paid off for one in five.
  19. Memphis @ Indiana 01/31/18

    And here we are, only eight players available and with a good chance to win against a team well in playoff pictures with an All Star player. Why is everyone so certain we couldn't make the playoffs if we really wanted too? 33 games to go.
  20. San Antonio @ Memphis 01/24/18

    Basketball reference has Pau, Rudy and Kawhi as likely out for tonight, with Manu as a question mark. Mike, Ennis, JaM, Chandler & Wright out, with Jarell questionable. Could get exciting on Beale tonight.
  21. Philly @ Memphis 01/22/18

    24-12? Not impossible. Grizzlies went 25-11 over the last 36 in 2012. Other teams have done it as well.
  22. Philly @ Memphis 01/22/18

    Ah, yes, that mythic 2003 draft. https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2003.html True, it looks impressive, but only one of those players won a championship on his own, and even that one (Wade) had a near prime Shaq on his team with him. Melo has never made it past the second round of the playoffs. LeBron only made one Finals without other star level players on his team. Bosh, Diaw, Barbosa, West & Walton are the other champions on the list. And even with the "can't miss description" there's still Darko at two, who the predraft clippings said would be the next Dirk or Pau.
  23. Philly @ Memphis 01/22/18

    Yes, let's hope for sure thing pick like Greg Oden or Ralph Sampson. Those two were destined for greatness coming out of college. Pervis Ellison, Kwame Brown, Tyrus Thomas, Benoit Benjamin, Michael Olowancandi, shall I keep going? Praying for lucky in the lottery means nothing if the guy slips in the shower and blows out their knees, or blows too much coke like Len Bias. These kids look good now, but so did Sam Bowie and O. J. Mayo.