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Some Thoughts About 2012-2013 Season--Expectations....(Long)


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#1 southbluffsgrizzfan

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Posted 16 September 2012 - 09:22 AM

Since it is a few weeks til training camp opens, I was just thinking about what to expect from our Grizzlies and to be honest, I am quietly optimistic.

No, we are NOT getting all the "pub" and all the "love" from the national pundits. Look at how we were put out of the playoffs last year--losing a 27 pt lead in game 1 and then losing Game 7 on our home court. Performances like that are not going to bring about a ton of respect from the NBA media.

But in really studying what the FO did this summer, I really think we got significantly better. The OJ era is over. I hate that it didnt work out here. He was a fan fave and I wanted him to be "that guy" who could turn on the offense when needed, but he just wast consistent enough and simply could not back up MC11 against quality playoff caliber defenders.

Bayless can do the job. He can play PG, He can shoot. He can drive to the basket and finish. We saw it first hand last year and he torched us at FEF.

DA and Mo Speights give us depth we havent had. 2 guys at 6-9,6-10 that can hit the midrange outside shot and help on the boards. Mo's defense leaves a bit to be desired but hopefully he can get better. DA can provide spark/energy so desparately needed at times last year.

Zach should be back physically. No more excuses about being out of game shape or his timing is off. Zach has been a top 5 power forward in this league in the past. He may not be a 20/10 guy this year but then again he may not need to be.

Marc is Marc. He is the anchor. He knows what everyone should be doing and where they should be. He is a top 3 center in the whole league.

My hope for Rudy is that he continue to just get better and cut down on the "checking out of game mentally" that he sometimes did last year. I hope that he can continue to get better in his post up game. He doesnt have to turn around and hit fade away jumpers from the baseline. He can take his man in the lane and abuse him. He has the talent to do so. He is gifted. He is 26 yrs old. It is time to put it all together.

TA, QPon, and Wroten can provide the perimeter defense that is needed against playoff quality teams in the West where the PG and shooting guard are dominant.

The wild card for me is Selby. Can he contribute? Summer leagues schummer league. That is all great, but can he handle the ball in the NBA and not turn it over. Can he contribute or will he continue to be at the end of the bench where Lionel wont play him because he doesnt trust him? That is the question.

All in all, my hope, and frankly my expectation is for Memphis to win 50+ games this season. There is no reason why they cannot. Of course never count out SA and Popovich, but Memphis should challenge for the SW division crown. Plain and simple. The talent is on the roster. . The depth is better than it has been in long time. The time for talking is over. Its time to do it.

#2 Grizzhype

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Posted 16 September 2012 - 09:34 AM

Quote

The Memphis Grizzlies boast one of the best and deepest frontlines in the NBA. Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Darrell Arthur (who is returning to the Grizzlies after missing the entire 2011-2012 season with a torn Achilles tendon) and Marreese Speights form a formidable frontcourt rotation that can compete night in and night out with any frontline in the league. The size and skill set of Memphis' bigs, particularly Gasol and Randolph, are two of the biggest assets the Grizzlies have.

The steady play of point guard Mike Conley is the glue that holds this Memphis team together. Conley and his backcourt mate, Tony Allen, set the defensive tone for the Grizzlies by aggressively defending the perimeter and disrupting the offensive flow of their opponents. Conley's greatest value is his ability to help keep the Grizzlies on an even keel by running the team effectively and making timely plays on both ends of the court.

Basically, the Grizzlies will go as far as their frontline, along with a few assists from Conley, can carry them. However, Memphis did make some offseason acquisitions that improved its backcourt and may prove to be beneficial before the season ends.

Combo guard Jerryd Bayless will likely have the biggest impact. Bayless gives the Grizzlies a legitimate backup point guard and has shown that he can shoot the ball from distance. Last season, he shot a career-high 42.3 percent beyond the three-point arc as a member of the Toronto Raptors. As a team, Memphis shot a dismal 32.6 percent from that distance last season. Bayless addresses two of the biggest needs that the Grizzlies had heading into the offseason.

Memphis also acquired shooting guard Wayne Ellington in a trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Grizzlies hope that a change of scenery, along with the open looks that are likely to come his way, will help Ellington make meaningful contributions to their cause.
http://sports.yahoo....--nba.html#next

Most people predict around 45 to 50 wins, but I'm expecting 55+.... Depth on the the perimeter and frontline will make the us a tough team to beat,,, Go Grizz....

#3 southbluffsgrizzfan

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Posted 16 September 2012 - 10:12 AM

View PostGrizzhype, on 16 September 2012 - 09:34 AM, said:

http://sports.yahoo....--nba.html#next

Most people predict around 45 to 50 wins, but I'm expecting 55+.... Depth on the the perimeter and frontline will make the us a tough team to beat,,, Go Grizz....

I just dont see why, barring injury, 50-55 wins cant be expected. Honestly I think we got significantly better over the off season. Of course some things have to come together. Bayless has to mesh well with the team and Lionel's system. Zach needs to get back to the form we are used to.

I am assuming that between Ellington, Bayless and hopefull Selby, we will have some outside threats that we didnt have last year.

But with the depth that you point out in the front and back court and the defensive players in TA, QPon and Wroten, there is no reason why we can win 50-55 games or more. The only thing left is to do it. I think the start of the season is key. Cant do the 1-8, 2-9 thing this year. Need to come out of the gates and win some. Start with winning at LAC. Who knows how effective CP3 will be first game of the year. Win on the road and turn some heads. Got to start well.

#4 memphis slim

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Posted 16 September 2012 - 02:19 PM

griz will win at least 53 games this next season.
book it.
going back to my cave for a while now.


slim.

#5 new_skool91

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Posted 17 September 2012 - 11:58 AM

52-58 seems reasonable to me; we went .621 last year with a PF that couldn't make it off the bench in the East and no three point shooting. I'm not saying that it will necessarily translate but .621 of 82 is 52. That's saying that we achieve at the same level as last year. Just getting our 3rd team All NBA PF back healthy is WAY more improvement than most other teams, apart from the Lakers, have done this off season. IJS. I know the media has no love for us and that we as fans are biased, but being closer to 60 wins than 50 ought not be a wild pipe dream for us.

#6 Father Pat

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Posted 17 September 2012 - 03:23 PM

View Postnew_skool91, on 17 September 2012 - 11:58 AM, said:

52-58 seems reasonable to me; we went .621 last year with a PF that couldn't make it off the bench in the East and no three point shooting. I'm not saying that it will necessarily translate but .621 of 82 is 52. That's saying that we achieve at the same level as last year. Just getting our 3rd team All NBA PF back healthy is WAY more improvement than most other teams, apart from the Lakers, have done this off season. IJS. I know the media has no love for us and that we as fans are biased, but being closer to 60 wins than 50 ought not be a wild pipe dream for us.
Good post new skool.
A big pet peeve of mine is the way the Grizzlies often seemed to play down to the level of their opponets last season. It seemed way too often that the Grizzlies would hang within 10 points or so and turn it on during the second half. It didn't always work ( 1-2 vs Phoenix last season). They have to stop doing this. The rest of the league does not take the Grizzlies lightly anymore. They play us harder than ever in the history of the franchise. They must go out every night looking to bury their opponets. Quick disclaimer - I'm talking the regular season here with no thought what so ever about the last post season, which I still try very hard to forget every day.
Anyway, they have to come out of the gate with a fire in their guts and maintain it for 48 minutes. Secondly, we have to start the season by pouring in the shots from the perimeter. Until the Grizzlies burn a lot of teams by hitting the outside shots, they will continue to pack the paint against us. We have to make them pay in order to make them adjust, which will then free up Marc and ZBo more often, and then the Grizzlies will roll.
This is going to be a great season!

#7 southbluffsgrizzfan

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Posted 17 September 2012 - 04:58 PM

View PosttheGrizzFan, on 17 September 2012 - 03:23 PM, said:

Good post new skool.
A big pet peeve of mine is the way the Grizzlies often seemed to play down to the level of their opponets last season. It seemed way too often that the Grizzlies would hang within 10 points or so and turn it on during the second half. It didn't always work ( 1-2 vs Phoenix last season). They have to stop doing this. The rest of the league does not take the Grizzlies lightly anymore. They play us harder than ever in the history of the franchise. They must go out every night looking to bury their opponets. Quick disclaimer - I'm talking the regular season here with no thought what so ever about the last post season, which I still try very hard to forget every day.
Anyway, they have to come out of the gate with a fire in their guts and maintain it for 48 minutes. Secondly, we have to start the season by pouring in the shots from the perimeter. Until the Grizzlies burn a lot of teams by hitting the outside shots, they will continue to pack the paint against us. We have to make them pay in order to make them adjust, which will then free up Marc and ZBo more often, and then the Grizzlies will roll.
This is going to be a great season!

I was at every home game and watched all road games on TV (as many on here did as well) and I noticed how teams definitely take us seriously now. What I watch is player rotations. During the regular season, I watched players like CP3, Steve Nash and there were others who seemed to play more minutes than their norm when facing us. I dont have numbers to back this up, so I could be wrong, but it certainly seemed as if, for example, Chris Paul would play much more of the 3rd and 4th qtrs against Memphis than he would against many other teams. (I watched a ton of Clippers games on League Pass last year).

The totals these guys played may have been their norm or close to it, but they seemed to not come out when they normally would against just a regular team. That told me that Chris Paul wanted the games against us. Steve Nash knew that he needed to play more to beat us. And there were other players that I would notice would play longer when up against the Grizzlies.

All this goes to your point that teams really dont take us lightly and consider a win against us a win against a tough playoff caliber team.
Some of the "lesser" teams as we call them consider a win against the Grizzlies as a win against a quality team and something to build on for them.

So I agree that the Grizz need to focus and not "play down" to the level of their competition. We need every win we can get. We want the best seed we can get. We should no longer be satisfied with just making the post season. Its time to win a division title now.

#8 scooter

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Posted 17 September 2012 - 07:26 PM

50 games would be more realistic. The West is tough.

#9 GTG

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 08:57 AM

I think another factor we need to consider when looking forward to this season is health. In reality, ever since we became a Playoff contender again, we haven't seen what this squad can do with its core at full strength. Two years ago, we lost Rudy for half the season and the Playoffs. Last year we lost Zbo for half the season and he wasn't back to 100% come postseason. Those are our two best players. Think to yourself for minute; where would OKC be if they had lost Westbrook for half a season and then Durant for half a season the next year? How about Miami with Lebron/Wade?

The fact is, if we manage to avoid the injury bug this year, I would be surprised if we didn't make at least the Conf. Finals.

#10 BLUEandGOLD

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 05:58 AM

I agree with most everything said above: better health, good start is key, more of a killer instinct, expectation of 50+ wins, much deeper and simply a lot more talent on the floor. The one thing we have not mentioned is LH and the coaching staff. LH has to step up to the plate this year and do his part. I think he is a good coach and I am glad he is our coach but this team needs his guidance to get that killer instinct, to use the depth effectively and to mold all our new/better talent into a smooth operating TEAM. If this happens 55+ wins and a SW crown are easily within our grasp..

#11 GrizzedByBluffCity

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 09:46 AM

Rudy expects to contend:

http://www.youtube.c...d&v=uttE2dBHkbM

#12 Observer II

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 04:14 PM

This team totally lost its heart when it blew a 27-point lead in the first playoff game. Questionable coaching decisions re: substitutions and time on the floor followed and, despite a valiant comeback, losing the seventh game on its home floor put Memphis in a totally unfavorable position regarding the upcoming season. The Griz have excellent personnel and a superb reputation for toughness. However, overcoming that playoff debacle when Haddadi and the ridiculous Gilbert were sent out to start the seventh game's fourth quarter will take some doing.