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Grizz Path To The Playoffs (Updated 04/26/12)


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#241 southbluffsgrizzfan

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 08:31 AM

we are 27-22 right now. There are 17 games left. 9 home/8 away.

Simply put, to win all home games and lose all away games would put us at 36-30.

Home game opponents remaining:
GSW
DAL
LAC
PHO
UTAH
NOLA
POR
CLE
ORL

Away opponents remaining:
MIL
OKC
DAL
MIA
SAS
NOLA
MIN
CHA

Well there it is right in front of us. Is it realistic to think we could win all of our home games left? Of the 8 away opponents, how many can we beat?

Lets just say for fun that we can win all 9 home games left and go 3-5 on the road. (beating MIL, NOLA, CHAR). That would be 12-5 in our last 17. We would then be 39-27, 12 games over .500. That should get us in the playoffs, dont you think??

Now say that is too optimistic.Say we drop 1 home game, 38-28 would be the record. Houston already has 24 losses. Surely they are going to end up with more than 28 losses.

We HAVE to win this game tonight. We are running out of chances to make up for our crappy losses.

By the way, been looking at the Clippers schedule the rest of the way. They have only 6 home games left (9 away) and they have to play OKC twice more, the Lakers once, they also go to Denver, to PHO, to ATL, to NYKnicks. I think if we can tread water and hold our own, the Clippers will come back to us record wise, plus they come to Memphis 1 time as well.

#242 El Lobo

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 08:47 AM

As I said earlier, imo 36-30 gets you the number #8 spot in the playoff. But I believe 3 teams will have that record and the team that owns the tie breaker gets it.

Utah owns the tie breaker over both Denver and Memphis.
Memphis owns the tiebreaker over Denver. So in case those 3 end up with identical season ending records Utah gets the #7 spot, Memphis gets #8, and Denver goes on vacation.

Edited by El Lobo, 31 March 2012 - 09:07 AM.


#243 southbluffsgrizzfan

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 09:09 AM

View PostEl Lobo, on 31 March 2012 - 08:47 AM, said:

As I said earlier, imo 36-30 gets you the number #8 spot in the playoff. But I believe 3 teams will have that record and the team that owns the tie breaker gets it.
El Lobo, after last night, I was down and depressed and wondering if we would even make the playoffs. I completely believe that the team has some problems and its going to be a grind it out stretch run,

BUT the good news is that after going over the schedules of MEM, DEN, DAL, HOU, and UTA, honestly I think we have the most favorable road to a decent seeding.

Clippers have 6 home games and 9 away games and I mentioned some of the places they have to go to in the post above. They will get several more losses before they are done..

Dallas has 6 home/7 away with road games at Lakers, at Utah, at Mem, at Chicago, at ATL

Denver has 6 home/8 away with road trips to ORL, Houston, Lakers, PHO, OKC, plus they play ORL in Denver.

Houston has 6 home games/8 away, They play Indy next at home then go on a 4 game roadie at Chicago, at the Lakers, at Sac (Sac just beat Utah in Utah last night) and at POR, later they have to go to Dallas and Miami. They also play Denver twice down the stretch.

Utah has 7 home/7 away but they go to Clippers, to SAS (then they come home and play SAS in Denver), to Memphis, to Houston, plus they already have 25 losses and we have 22.

All of this is predicated on Memphis getting themselves righted and defending the home court along with simply beating some sub .500 teams on the road. It can be done. These other teams that are bunched up are going to be playing each other a lot down the stretch. We have 1 game with SAS and 1 game with OKC and we are done with them. We have MIA,that's true, but hey we can do this and I think can end up above the 8th seed.

How's that for optimism and positivity!!! I do feel better now after looking at these schedules. It looks tough right now but these teams are going to have to pay the piper like we are doing right now and go on the road.

We have 9 home games left, that is more home games than any of the teams we are racing against. We have 8 road games. I want us to go 3-5 on the road. Just go 3-5, thats .400 winning percentage on the road. We can do this. We can end up in 4th 5th or 6th. We dont have to settle for the 8th seed, if we can just get some consistent play, shooting/defense.

#244 KoufosSnozz

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 11:40 AM

Since the Grizzlies love to go on streaks, maybe we could count on the Grizzlies getting back to their winning ways while every other team goes back to losing. Law of averages...oops, I might have just jinxed the Grizz. Oh well...

#245 southbluffsgrizzfan

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 12:35 PM

View Postlilgregmonroe, on 31 March 2012 - 11:40 AM, said:

Since the Grizzlies love to go on streaks, maybe we could count on the Grizzlies getting back to their winning ways while every other team goes back to losing. Law of averages...oops, I might have just jinxed the Grizz. Oh well...
dont know if you are being facetious or not, but the point of what I was saying is that to think that all the other teams are going to run away from the Grizzlies is not necessarily true.

Last night was hard on all of us to watch and there was plenty of negative thinking by me and plenty others. All I wanted to do is to point out that these other teams bunched up with us have some tough roads as well.

I would love for the Grizz to go on a 5 game winning streak but we all know that isnt going to happen. But I dont think any of the others will go on big winning streaks. The Clips have won 4 in a row but are about to head out on the road for a long trip.

We have more home games left than any of them. My attempt is to be positive and to show that a good playoff seed still right there for the taking for the Grizz.

And it starts tonight. It starts in Milwaukee.

#246 southbluffsgrizzfan

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 07:49 PM

well Denver caught a break and got to play Orlando without Dwight Howard as he sat out with back spasms. So Denver won in Orlando and moves to 29-24.

Thought Indiana was going to help us out in Houston as they started out pretty hot, but it just went into the 4th qtr and Houston leads by 10.


Edit---HOUSTON LOST!! nice job Indy. Thank you very much. 104-102 in OT Gotta love the Rockets losing

#247 Grizzled Vet

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Posted 02 April 2012 - 09:48 AM

The way the schedule is set up, the WC playoff teams are going to be playing some big games against each other now, and they are all going to be taking their lumps, especially if teams like Portland and Phoenix keep their playoff lives for a while.

If those two teams decide to fold the tents early and just position themselves for better lottery pick, then that could be unfortunate.

Portland plays Utah 3x, Dallas twice, and playoff possible teams Memphis, Houston, Phoenix and San Antonio once.

Phoenix plays San Antonio, Denver and Utah twice, and once each against Memphis, Clips, Lakers, Houston, OKC, Portland, and Minn. (that's a brutal 13 of 14 games they have remaining).

#248 memphian901

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Posted 02 April 2012 - 11:29 AM

Original Post updated.

#249 Grizzled Vet

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Posted 05 April 2012 - 07:41 AM

Good night for securing playoff birth (with the obvious exception of the Grizzlies loss).

Good:
Hornets over Nuggets
Warriors over the all but eliminated T'Wolves

Lakers beat Clippers


Only meaningful game tonight (4/5) would be a Kings upset of the Clippers, which isn't out of the realm of possibility

#250 GTG

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 11:06 PM

Some of y'all will probably think I'm crazy, but I'm going to go out on a limb and declare the Grizzlies a lock for the 2012 Playoffs.

I know the race in the West is insanely close, but looking at our remaining schedule, and based on how we've been playing lately, I just don't see any realistic situation in which the Grizzlies could be knocked out of the top-8 spots over the next 2 1/2 weeks. We've got the Mavs, Clippers, Suns, and Spurs. With SAS being the only one of those four on the road, that's the only game I'm a little worried about.

But after that four game stretch, it's literally a cakewalk to the finish line. We finish with 5 of our last 8 at home. Out of those final 8, seven are against non-Playoff teams and 6 against sub-.500 squads.

I think we've got this.

#251 KoufosSnozz

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 11:32 PM

Spurs now at 1st seed and I feel it's going to be that way. The Lakers can keep their 3rd seed. Hope the Grizzlies meet the Thunder in the WCF.

#252 catalina2013

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 11:33 PM

View PostGTG, on 06 April 2012 - 11:06 PM, said:

Some of y'all will probably think I'm crazy, but I'm going to go out on a limb and declare the Grizzlies a lock for the 2012 Playoffs.

I know the race in the West is insanely close, but looking at our remaining schedule, and based on how we've been playing lately, I just don't see any realistic situation in which the Grizzlies could be knocked out of the top-8 spots over the next 2 1/2 weeks. We've got the Mavs, Clippers, Suns, and Spurs. With SAS being the only one of those four on the road, that's the only game I'm a little worried about.

But after that four game stretch, it's literally a cakewalk to the finish line. We finish with 5 of our last 8 at home. Out of those final 8, seven are against non-Playoff teams and 6 against sub-.500 squads.

I think we've got this.

I want to believe you are right.

Utah is still only 1 and 1/2 games out of the #8 spot and they own the tie breaker over us. Houston beat the Lakers tonight in L.A.
(Houston is the team I really dislike). And they, along with Denver are only 1 and 1/2 games behind the Grizz.
Imo, it's still to tight and too close to call. Grizz still have to take care of business. Just keep winning!!

#253 rockygriz

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Posted 07 April 2012 - 12:08 AM

Utah and Phoenix both have 27 losses (4 more than the Griz). I think we might be able to count then out, from 7 down to 0 (Griz wins or Utah and Phoenix losses.)

I think everyone wants to pick our opponent and even get a first round home court.

#254 southbluffsgrizzfan

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Posted 07 April 2012 - 05:20 AM

View Postrockygriz, on 07 April 2012 - 12:08 AM, said:

Utah and Phoenix both have 27 losses (4 more than the Griz). I think we might be able to count then out, from 7 down to 0 (Griz wins or Utah and Phoenix losses.)

I think everyone wants to pick our opponent and even get a first round home court.
well in light of the above post and the phrase "pick our opponent," I will say this: Last year, everyone said we tanked the last 2 games at Portland and the Clippers so that we would be sure to get the 8th seed and draw SAS. They said we wanted SAS because we "matched up" with them.

Well I will just flat out say it with no apologies. This year, I dont want any part of the Spurs. I love my Grizzlies. I am not trying to be negative. But I am realistic and I dont want any part of them. Pops is just the best coach in the league (along with Adelman). They have absorbed the Ginobili injury earlier in the year and it didnt even affect them.

They have something like 25 guards who can all shoot the 3. They got Captain Jack and Diaw. Diaw will help in the paint down low. Splitter is a year older and has more experience.

They destroyed NOLA last night putting up 128 pts. I know I know, it was NOLA, but SAS has won 9 in row. The Spurs bench scored 82 pts last night. They dont seem to care who they play. They just win. So, while I am not saying they would sweep us or even beat us for sure, I certainly dont want any part of them definitely in the first round.

****By the way, SAS took over the #1 seed in the West last night. I didnt think anyone would catch OKC. Spurs are just amazing

#255 southbluffsgrizzfan

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Posted 07 April 2012 - 05:29 AM

Bynum gets his 2nd ejection against Houston and the Rockets continue to lead their charmed existence and win in LA. Jeez, Houston will just not go away. Starting backcourt OUT and they still keep winning. Last night, Marcus Camby hit a clutch 3 pointer in the 4th qtr. MARCUS CAMBY???? :huh:

I am so sick of them. Why wont they lose???? LOL. I had penciled in "L's" for the Chicago and LAL games and they win them anyway.

Why couldnt Bynum get ejected when the Lakers came to FEF? LOL Oh well, I dont think they will catch us. But they are 30-25. We are 31-23. We just cant shake them to the point where I will feel safe.

They are like Mike Myers in Halloween, they just wont die.

#256 GrizzedByBluffCity

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Posted 07 April 2012 - 05:51 AM

is it too early to preorder my grizz 2011-12 champions DVD or bluRay season recap?

#257 hatfieldms

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Posted 07 April 2012 - 12:19 PM

View PostGTG, on 06 April 2012 - 11:06 PM, said:

Some of y'all will probably think I'm crazy, but I'm going to go out on a limb and declare the Grizzlies a lock for the 2012 Playoffs.

I know the race in the West is insanely close, but looking at our remaining schedule, and based on how we've been playing lately, I just don't see any realistic situation in which the Grizzlies could be knocked out of the top-8 spots over the next 2 1/2 weeks. We've got the Mavs, Clippers, Suns, and Spurs. With SAS being the only one of those four on the road, that's the only game I'm a little worried about.

But after that four game stretch, it's literally a cakewalk to the finish line. We finish with 5 of our last 8 at home. Out of those final 8, seven are against non-Playoff teams and 6 against sub-.500 squads.

I think we've got this.

I agree. We would really have to fall apart to not make it. If we finish just 6-6 Utah would have to go 8-2 to tie us

#258 GTG

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Posted 07 April 2012 - 12:31 PM

View Posthatfieldms, on 07 April 2012 - 12:19 PM, said:

I agree. We would really have to fall apart to not make it. If we finish just 6-6 Utah would have to go 8-2 to tie us
Exactly. I just can't realistically see us losing more than 3-4 of our final 12. Utah only has 10 games left so they would almost have to go undefeated to kick us out of the top 8 and that just ain't happening. Besides, we get to play them once more at FEF which we'll probably win.

#259 rockygriz

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Posted 07 April 2012 - 08:38 PM

View Postsouthbluffsgrizzfan, on 31 March 2012 - 08:31 AM, said:

we are 27-22 right now. There are 17 games left. 9 home/8 away.

Simply put, to win all home games and lose all away games would put us at 36-30.

Home game opponents remaining:
GSW
DAL
LAC
PHO
UTAH
NOLA
POR
CLE
ORL

Away opponents remaining:
MIL
OKC
DAL
MIA
SAS
NOLA
MIN
CHA

Well there it is right in front of us. Is it realistic to think we could win all of our home games left? Of the 8 away opponents, how many can we beat?

Lets just say for fun that we can win all 9 home games left and go 3-5 on the road. (beating MIL, NOLA, CHAR). That would be 12-5 in our last 17. We would then be 39-27, 12 games over .500. That should get us in the playoffs, dont you think??

Now say that is too optimistic.Say we drop 1 home game, 38-28 would be the record. Houston already has 24 losses. Surely they are going to end up with more than 28 losses.

We HAVE to win this game tonight. We are running out of chances to make up for our crappy losses.

By the way, been looking at the Clippers schedule the rest of the way. They have only 6 home games left (9 away) and they have to play OKC twice more, the Lakers once, they also go to Denver, to PHO, to ATL, to NYKnicks. I think if we can tread water and hold our own, the Clippers will come back to us record wise, plus they come to Memphis 1 time as well.
Update this now that we are 32-23 and have the series against Dallas.

#260 GTG

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Posted 07 April 2012 - 09:08 PM

Absolutely no doubt in my mind whatsoever now. We're IN!

Also for what's it's worth, Hollinger's prediction system had us at a 99.0% chance of making the postseason.