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Official Big 12 Is (Really This Time) Expanding Thread


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#21 The Truth is OUT

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 10:47 AM

Don't have a link for you - just saying, that word is coming out from a few different sources now that Big 12 is only going to expand to 2, and despite what you've heard, it's pretty much a 3 horse race between BYU, Houston & Cincinnati.  

 

Hope "they" are wrong.  Being in the Group of 5 is hard enough, but to lose Houston and Cincy from the AAC would really hurt.  Take those two teams away, and the longest history we have with teams left over in the AAC is Tulane, and, um, Tulane.     



#22 Notorious O.D.K.

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 11:11 AM

Yeah there's all types of reports out there. I'm  almost thinking they will do nothing and tell teams to wait until the 2019-20 season. That way, the newcomers would never get the full payout because they will probably have a 5 year waiting period where they get significantly less but by that time, the Big 12 TV contract will be over and I predict the Big 12 as we know it will be over.

 

I've said this before, but I'm getting to the point where I just don't care. it's a double edged sword. it would be great to be in, but you wouldn't get anywhere near the money of the incumbent members, it may be short-lived and the Big12 has horrible leadership. 

 

I've also heard that UConn is flirting with joining the Big East if they can't get into the Big 12 and just put their fb in some random conference or even go independent in fb. If that's the case and the AAC loses 2 schools to the B12, I would offer 5 schools from the MW to join the American as the Western division or even throw it to BYU, but their social and cultural views may hinder them from joining any conference. That way, you may lose a couple of strong fb programs but you replace them with 3-4 strong to decent programs and a couple more decent to ok ones. it would make the AAC stronger.



#23 The Truth is OUT

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 08:49 AM

Yeah there's all types of reports out there. I'm  almost thinking they will do nothing and tell teams to wait until the 2019-20 season. That way, the newcomers would never get the full payout because they will probably have a 5 year waiting period where they get significantly less but by that time, the Big 12 TV contract will be over and I predict the Big 12 as we know it will be over.

 

I've said this before, but I'm getting to the point where I just don't care. it's a double edged sword. it would be great to be in, but you wouldn't get anywhere near the money of the incumbent members, it may be short-lived and the Big12 has horrible leadership. 

 

I've also heard that UConn is flirting with joining the Big East if they can't get into the Big 12 and just put their fb in some random conference or even go independent in fb. If that's the case and the AAC loses 2 schools to the B12, I would offer 5 schools from the MW to join the American as the Western division or even throw it to BYU, but their social and cultural views may hinder them from joining any conference. That way, you may lose a couple of strong fb programs but you replace them with 3-4 strong to decent programs and a couple more decent to ok ones. it would make the AAC stronger.

 

I wouldn't be surprised, if the B12 does expand, that it will eventually ripple down to certain programs in the Group of 5 bandying together to make a "best of the rest" conference.  I'm talking a few years after any expansion.  It is obvious that being the top dog amongst the next tier is very important, seeing as how the C-USA and MAC TV contracts are atrocious, and I don't even know if the Sun Belt has an official "conference" contract.  I don't know about a merger, but taking the cream of the AAC/MWC could make for at least better money than is available elsewhere.



#24 Notorious O.D.K.

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Posted 19 August 2016 - 04:59 AM

ISU President thinks it will take until December. I'm thinking more and more they won't expand. 

 

The guy towards the end of this piece (Zimbalist) pretty much sums up my feelings on it. Darned if you do, darned if you don't but you're better off in a Power 5 Conference. 



#25 The Truth is OUT

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Posted 23 August 2016 - 11:33 AM

So apparently on a radio interview up in my neck of the woods yesterday, some guy from CBS sports said he believes it will be Cincinnati & Memphis.  Haven't found a transcript of it, so I'm not sure what his reasoning was.  

 

I have heard this for about 2 years now from what I would have to describe as a "tangentially connected source", so every time I hear somebody in the media draw this same conclusion, I start to want to follow them a little more closely to try and determine where they get their info from.  Calkins mentioned him the other day, I don't remember his name, but when I looked him up apparently he got his feet wet working for the Bleacher Report, which has been pretty consistently pro-Memphis, so maybe he does have some inside dope.

 

One can only hope.



#26 chipc3

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Posted 24 August 2016 - 08:15 AM

So apparently on a radio interview up in my neck of the woods yesterday, some guy from CBS sports said he believes it will be Cincinnati & Memphis.  Haven't found a transcript of it, so I'm not sure what his reasoning was.  

 

I have heard this for about 2 years now from what I would have to describe as a "tangentially connected source", so every time I hear somebody in the media draw this same conclusion, I start to want to follow them a little more closely to try and determine where they get their info from.  Calkins mentioned him the other day, I don't remember his name, but when I looked him up apparently he got his feet wet working for the Bleacher Report, which has been pretty consistently pro-Memphis, so maybe he does have some inside dope.

 

One can only hope.

 

I heard that too via some radio show but it's just an opinion so far. 



#27 Notorious O.D.K.

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Posted 24 August 2016 - 11:54 AM

So apparently on a radio interview up in my neck of the woods yesterday, some guy from CBS sports said he believes it will be Cincinnati & Memphis.  Haven't found a transcript of it, so I'm not sure what his reasoning was.  

 

 

 

I heard that too via some radio show but it's just an opinion so far. 

 

 

i occasionally listen to the Calkins Show online at work. I heard him mention it and the guy's name but he also mentioned that he wasn't very familiar with that writer and it's that writer's opinion. 



#28 chipc3

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Posted 25 August 2016 - 02:27 PM

i occasionally listen to the Calkins Show online at work. I heard him mention it and the guy's name but he also mentioned that he wasn't very familiar with that writer and it's that writer's opinion. 

 

Oh ****e! Does that mean that Calkins and I have the same opinion on something??? I believe that is a sign of the Apocalypse. 



#29 Notorious O.D.K.

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Posted 01 September 2016 - 05:52 AM

So there was a story floating that the B12 trimmed the list to 6 possibly 8 schools and that Memphis was included. Now, ESPN is saying that the B12 has trimmed the list to 12 and that they cannot confirm that if Memphis is included.  I have a hard time believing that Rice, Tulane, SMU and Temple made the cut over Memphis. 



#30 Notorious O.D.K.

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Posted 02 September 2016 - 02:38 PM

It's official. Memphis did not make the cut which is really interesting considering some of the other teams. As far as I'm concerned, it's much better to know where you stand as opposed to being in limbo the next couple of months and not make the final cut. They need to move on and do what they can to compete. 

 

It's sad but it's not the end of the world. As I mentioned before, the B12 is a mess and I think this whole expansion fiasco is an example of that. Not only that, but you may never get the full payout. I get the feeling that the B12 will implode when their tv contract ends. 



#31 chipc3

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Posted 02 September 2016 - 03:00 PM

This could be great for the Tigers or, if they aren't chosen, could spell the death of the Tigers.


Calkins today wrote that the Tigers will survive this but I wonder how long Memphis fans can think they are big when no respectable league wants them?

#32 Notorious O.D.K.

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Posted 02 September 2016 - 03:30 PM

Well, it is what it is. The reality is that Memphis' academics are looked at as being horrendous outside of Memphis. The school overall is not in a good position when compared to most of these power 5 schools from academic ratings to endowments. Memphis' biggest asset is its basketball program which has been in the toilet the past couple of years. Fans brag on the basketball and it's 3 Final Fours but 2 have been vacated and when you look in the American- Cincy, UConn and Houston all have more Final Fours and championships in basketball. Football has been abysmal for the better part of it's existence with a handful of years of competitive fb. it just is what it is, you can't change it overnight. Memphis is mainly a commuter school vs. a campus based school. If I'm not mistaken, don't the basketball players live in off-campus apartments? I mean, there are a lot of things that Memphis needs to fix before it can "belong". Fans keep trying to ride the limited glory of the basketball program and pumping it up more than it really is. 

 

It doesn't surprise me. Memphis really needs to step up its game, but I'm starting to think more and more that the B12 won't even expand. I said this a long time ago but this whole thing is one big debacle. Rumor is that even some of the B12 presidents are embarrassed by how this has been carried out and some tension with Bowlsby is arising. Memphis needs to do better but I don't think the B12 will be around in 9 years anyway. 



#33 The Truth is OUT

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Posted 06 September 2016 - 01:01 PM

Best thing that can happen now is no expansion.

 

The American will remain the premiere "Group of 5" league in pretty much all sports.  Even if the MWC is equal to us, we win the tiebreaker because of the value of East & Central v. Mountain time TV sets.  If you have to be in a little pond, be the biggest fish.

 

FedEx hopefully steps up to infuse money into Memphis anyway, so that if they ever can get the call up, they can be ready, and if not, be the "best of the rest".  Now that the Board of Regents is dead, there's no reason for anyone to hold back the donations academically, so both Athletics and Academics can get the support the U of M should have been getting all along.

 

It is absolutely a blow to not get in.  It is demoralizing to be eliminated so early.  It's basically saying we will never get into this party.  And it's only a matter of time before the party completely ignores the long queue line outside standing in the rain. We can hope that things stay somewhat the way they were for a while, but there will eventually come a day when we will be part of essentially what used to be D-II.



#34 Wells

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Posted 06 September 2016 - 02:43 PM

What I would love is that it comes out that the reason the ESPN reporter could not find evidence of Memphis being involved in the upcoming presentations is because the Big 12 Presidents had already decided that the Tigers were going to be one of the Universities invited to join.  Everyone else is fighting for the remaining spot(s).



#35 The Truth is OUT

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Posted 07 September 2016 - 01:39 PM

What I would love is that it comes out that the reason the ESPN reporter could not find evidence of Memphis being involved in the upcoming presentations is because the Big 12 Presidents had already decided that the Tigers were going to be one of the Universities invited to join.  Everyone else is fighting for the remaining spot(s).

 

This is something I have considered but dare not hope for.  For those who want to believe, there are tiny glimmers of hope, but it's hard not to think that Caulkins has enough inside dope and goodwill that he was told the straight story, albeit off the record.  And he seemed pretty definitive in his column that we were indeed done.

 

But, again, there is an argument for what you are saying.

 

  1. First, Memphis and Temple have been linked as being "out", yet both schools will not say anything about the process.  Other schools, once eliminated, have said so publicly.  
  2. Second, there have been "leaks" here and there that seem to have pegged Memphis as an "in" early on.  Statements never really meant to be public but got out there anyway.
  3. Third, ESPN is the only news source willing to state Memphis is out.  Fox (who also has skin in this game) has not.  And reports from other reputable agencies only cite the ESPN report, not providing independent corroboration.  

 

It's on this 3rd point that I say the most "hope" is available, because if you read the ESPN report, they state that Memphis being willing to take a reduced share is something that may have ultimately hurt Memphis more than it has helped.  Now, think about this.  from ESPN's standpoint, this would be true.  But not from the conference's.  In fact, much of the reporting this entire year regarding expansion has focused on the idea that any new member would HAVE to take reduced money for several years, based on the precedent set by TCU and WVU.  But now, acknowledging this supposedly sunk Memphis' bid?   

 

Here's the reality.  If all teams willingly take reduced portions, you are actually incentivizing (not a word, I know) the current Big 12 members into taking 4 teams, because it just makes them that much richer.  Which is the last thing ESPN wants.  Yet, Memphis has been the most "pegged" for being willing to pony up monies to get us in.  So by dropping Memphis from the conversation, are they sending a message to the remaining candidates?

 

Of course, at the same time, you also HAVE to think that somebody at ESPN is privy to the proceedings, and knows something the rest of us don't.  So for them to stop mentioning Memphis has to mean something.

 

The one real hope I have is Fred Smith.  Because once again, I HAVE to think that he knows how crucial this is, to be willing to commit $1B total to the effort to get this university in the Big 12, between financing their league and propping up the school.  If he's willing to do that, I'm thinking he will not stop pressing and lobbying for this until the press conference announcing the teams. 



#36 tennesseessio

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Posted 07 September 2016 - 04:27 PM

I'm an Oklahoma/Big12 fan. I'd have loved to see UofM get into the confrence. Memphis has maybe the best basketball facilities in the country and a good program, the football team has a bit of positive momentum, and the city is in the heart of SEC country and a fertile ground for recruiting that Big12 schools do not/can not currently take advantage of.

 

Plus i'd just love to see my Sooners roll in here once every two years and utterly annihilate and embarrass one of the worst public universities (academics) in the country.



#37 The Truth is OUT

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Posted 14 October 2016 - 10:47 AM

So anyone willing to put a percentage on the odds that we find out who the expansion candidates are on Monday?



#38 chipc3

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Posted 14 October 2016 - 01:10 PM

So anyone willing to put a percentage on the odds that we find out who the expansion candidates are on Monday?

 

I doubt anyone cares anymore around here. 



#39 Notorious O.D.K.

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Posted 16 October 2016 - 06:19 PM

So anyone willing to put a percentage on the odds that we find out who the expansion candidates are on Monday?

 

Well, this isn't too encouraging for the league.  

 

I (and apparently more and more people) would be surprised if they expanded. It sounds like nothing will happen, but then again, this is the Big 12. They may invite MTSU and Bowling Green. 



#40 The Truth is OUT

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Posted 17 October 2016 - 12:22 PM

Just got a hold of this Reddit thread, 4 hours before the Big 12 press conference - it seems Cincinnati is furiously preparing for its invite...