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Wells

Tanking - A Historical Perspective, rather than Hysterical

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On 2/10/2018 at 6:04 AM, MemphisX said:

Who has ever said that?  Nobody.  Just a strawman...

People have been saying trade Marc/Mike/ZBo when they had value to accelerate the rebuild.  See the reason why rebuilds usually take so long is because organizations wait until the roster is bare and try to build by using SOLELY their draft picks.  So like instead of having 2 lottery picks this year, we will have one because people think keeping Marc/Mike is going to lead us somewhere.  It will be followed by a lack luster year in which we likely lose our 1st round pick and then Mike/Marc will have ZERO value.  So now we are looking at Miles Bridges and a bunch of 2nd round picks with whatever is left of Mike Conley...and so begins the EXTENDED rebuild.

Yes. Danny Ainge's trick was flipping his assets before their expiration date. He's still doing it, actually.

 

On 2/10/2018 at 12:49 AM, Wells said:

Statistically, it looks sound.  The only problem I see is how often teams that fall into the worst three teams tend to remain in that group for extended years. Getting a high draft pick does not mean that your team automatically turns around.  Most of the top draft picks in this 24 year retrospective have not been “once in a generation” players, contrary to the hype they had entering the draft.

 

Statistically, it IS sound. It's all based on probabilities. The probabilities don't guarantee any equitable outcome in a single year, and small sample sizes tend to have great variance (and the entire history of the lottery still counts as a small sample size), but over time the outcomes trend towards the beginning odds.

The John Hollinger and Chris Wallace argument that tanking wouldn't necessarily work out for the team is an attempt to say what I just said about the probabilities. But, their interpretation of the probabilities seems to be skewed. They seem to be trying to suggest that if you end up with a bottom-3 record, in any single lottery year you could still end up with the fifth or sixth pick (and there is no chance of finishing seventh or lower), so therefore it's not worth even trying. But, as Hollinger at least surely knows, the PROBABILITY of that worst case scenario happening is slim, if indeed that is their argument.

You can't protest the lottery system and ever hope to beat the system. After all, the probabilities are against it.  

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On 2/10/2018 at 7:03 AM, Kevin B Moses said:

 

Take five guys and develop an identity with them. I believe that we have a core of 3 to 4 guys already that we could do this with.

Harrison, Brooks, Rabb and to a lesser extend: martin and selden. My opinion is that the one thing missing from this team is a big center next to Rabb. Bamba. And a top flight sg.

If the team would just listen to me: harrison, brooks, Rabb and Bamba would be a top 10 team if you give them time.    

There is no way on Gods green earth that those guys are more than 5th starter to bench role players on a championship team. Name me a team that hasn’t had multiple AllStar players that won a championship, you won’t because it doesn’t exist. Stars are necessary in the NBA, and we have 1 that will be washed up due to age in short order. 

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