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chipc3

Grizzlies Predictions

Will the Grizzlies make the Playoffs for the 2017-18 season   

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  1. 1. Do you believe the Grizzlies will make the playoffs this season?


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  • Poll closed on 10/17/2017 at 09:01 PM

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11 hours ago, Dwash said:

I can totally agree with that. I really dont think they care about playing style and all that. Just financial bottom line.

Get real. Having some concern for $ doesn't instantly make you a team that doesn't care about the product on the court. Even if they ARE all about money, they know you have to put out a product people will pay for.

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If we get the Spanish Marc and last years Conley then it's hard to imagine the team being bad this upcoming season.     I see no reason why Marc's tournament aggression and game doesn't carry over into the season.

  Mike should have little to no drop off considering he will have a better understanding of Fiz system with more experience.  Plus Chalmers, Tyreke, and even more seasoned Harrison will all be better backups than what Mike had last year.    

There will be no confusion about who the leader of the team is (hint its Mike) and no confusion over the roles.   There will be fewer distractions which will allow Fiz to concentrate on coaching the guys up and evolving his system.   I think a few of the young guys will show improvement and development this season: Wayne, Brooks, and Harrison.   Which is all that i have ever asked for. 

 All we need is for Tyreke and Chandler to be fully healthy for us to be a playoff team like we were last season.     I am predicting a 46 win season and playoff berth.  

I am pretty excited to see the guys hit the court.   Booo the haters. 

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46 minutes ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

If we get the Spanish Marc and last years Conley then it's hard to imagine the team being bad this upcoming season.     I see no reason why Marc's tournament aggression and game doesn't carry over into the season.

  Mike should have little to no drop off considering he will have a better understanding of Fiz system with more experience.  Plus Chalmers, Tyreke, and even more seasoned Harrison will all be better backups than what Mike had last year.    

There will be no confusion about who the leader of the team is (hint its Mike) and no confusion over the roles.   There will be fewer distractions which will allow Fiz to concentrate on coaching the guys up and evolving his system.   I think a few of the young guys will show improvement and development this season: Wayne, Brooks, and Harrison.   Which is all that i have ever asked for. 

 All we need is for Tyreke and Chandler to be fully healthy for us to be a playoff team like we were last season.     I am predicting a 46 win season and playoff berth.  

I am pretty excited to see the guys hit the court.   Booo the haters. 

I realize people will consider me a hater for pointing this out again, but can anyone name a player who has returned to full health and performance after 3 knee surgeries? I'm not just asking about basketball either but any sport???

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5 minutes ago, chipc3 said:

I realize people will consider me a hater for pointing this out again, but can anyone name a player who has returned to full health and performance after 3 knee surgeries? I'm not just asking about basketball either but any sport???

hasn't Westbrook had a few surgeries on his knees? I'm not sure,  I cant think of anyone else.

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Just now, guillermo said:

hasn't Westbrook had a few surgeries on his knees? I'm not sure,  I cant think of anyone else.

Actually Russell had 3 surgeries after one event back in 2013. Apparently they had to go back in twice to fix what they didn't fix the first time. Westbrook was 25 at the time. 

I didn't know that.

I can say without hesitation that he recovered well from the torn meniscus and the follow up surgeries. 

Perhaps asking a 29 year old Chandler Parsons and 28 year old Tyreke Evans, both who have missed extensive time over the last few seasons, to return fully healthy and performing at a high level isn't way out of the question. 

Unless you believe that a torn meniscus isn't as severe an injury as Parsons' cartlidge and meniscus problems in his right knee and meniscus injury in his left or Evans cartlidge and bone chip issues. 

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22 minutes ago, chipc3 said:

Actually Russell had 3 surgeries after one event back in 2013. Apparently they had to go back in twice to fix what they didn't fix the first time. Westbrook was 25 at the time. 

I didn't know that.

I can say without hesitation that he recovered well from the torn meniscus and the follow up surgeries. 

Perhaps asking a 29 year old Chandler Parsons and 28 year old Tyreke Evans, both who have missed extensive time over the last few seasons, to return fully healthy and performing at a high level isn't way out of the question. 

Unless you believe that a torn meniscus isn't as severe an injury as Parsons' cartlidge and meniscus problems in his right knee and meniscus injury in his left or Evans cartlidge and bone chip issues. 

Tyreke did mention in an interview on Grindcity (paraphrasing)  that his initial surgeries were misdiagnosed and his last one actually addressed the real issue he had been experiencing.   He said now he can do full range of motion and exercises without any soreness.   I am actually more confident in Tyreke being 100% than Chandler, which still lends me to believing the team will have a solid season. 

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I think having three knee surgeries is so rare that you can't really predict anything from previous cases, but of course the odds are worse the older you are. It's really a case by case thing.

Torn meniscus is indeed the mildest of knee injuries. I found this article explaining their relative severity if anyone is interested: http://www.newellstrength.com/hierarchy-knee-injuries/

 

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4 hours ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

If we get the Spanish Marc and last years Conley then it's hard to imagine the team being bad this upcoming season.     I see no reason why Marc's tournament aggression and game doesn't carry over into the season.

  Mike should have little to no drop off considering he will have a better understanding of Fiz system with more experience.  Plus Chalmers, Tyreke, and even more seasoned Harrison will all be better backups than what Mike had last year.    

There will be no confusion about who the leader of the team is (hint its Mike) and no confusion over the roles.   There will be fewer distractions which will allow Fiz to concentrate on coaching the guys up and evolving his system.   I think a few of the young guys will show improvement and development this season: Wayne, Brooks, and Harrison.   Which is all that i have ever asked for. 

 All we need is for Tyreke and Chandler to be fully healthy for us to be a playoff team like we were last season.     I am predicting a 46 win season and playoff berth.  

I am pretty excited to see the guys hit the court.   Booo the haters. 

Bravo! I'm keeping my fingers crossed.  The Grizzlies will continue to keep the true condition of Chandler Parsons top secret so only time will tell.

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5 hours ago, chipc3 said:

I realize people will consider me a hater for pointing this out again, but can anyone name a player who has returned to full health and performance after 3 knee surgeries? I'm not just asking about basketball either but any sport???

I answered your question like two months ago.

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Jimmy Shapiro’s odds for the Western Conference:

2017-2018 Western Conference - Odds to Win

Golden State Warriors               4/11

Oklahoma City Thunder              15/2

San Antonio Spurs                    15/2

Houston Rockets                      10/1

Minnesota Timberwolves            16/1

Denver Nuggets                        66/1

Los Angeles Clippers                66/1

Los Angeles Lakers                   66/1

New Orleans Pelicans                66/1

Portland Trail Blazers                 100/1

Utah Jazz                                  100/1

Memphis Grizzlies                     150/1

Dallas Mavericks                       200/1

Phoenix Suns                            300/1

Sacramento Kings                     300/1

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1 hour ago, chipc3 said:

Jimmy Shapiro’s odds for the Western Conference:

2017-2018 Western Conference - Odds to Win

Golden State Warriors               4/11

Oklahoma City Thunder              15/2

San Antonio Spurs                    15/2

Houston Rockets                      10/1

Minnesota Timberwolves            16/1

Denver Nuggets                        66/1

Los Angeles Clippers                66/1

Los Angeles Lakers                   66/1

New Orleans Pelicans                66/1

Portland Trail Blazers                 100/1

Utah Jazz                                  100/1

Memphis Grizzlies                     150/1

Dallas Mavericks                       200/1

Phoenix Suns                            300/1

Sacramento Kings                     300/1

I'm confident the Grizzlies will outperform the Lakers, New Orleans, and possibly Denver as well.  Now Minnesota may need an entire season under their belt before they are ready to make the playoffs.  Who is Jimmy Shapiro?  He's not smart if he thinks the Lakers and Pelicans will outperform the Grizz.  He gets no respect from me.

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1 minute ago, Michael D said:

I'm confident the Grizzlies will outperform the Lakers, New Orleans, and possibly Denver as well.  Now Minnesota may need an entire season under their belt before they are ready to make the playoffs.  Who is Jimmy Shapiro?  He's not smart if he thinks the Lakers and Pelicans will outperform the Grizz.  He gets no respect from me.

He is Vice President of Zucker Media Group and was simply quoting the Bovada line for the upcoming season.  

And he's very smart. Much smarter than I was when I posted this thread and left off an important bit of information. These are the odds of WINNING THE WESTERN CONFERENCE, not making the playoffs. My fault for not writing that down more clearly. I thought with the odds it was apparent but apparently not. 

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For what it's worth (not much) ... my pre-season order-of-finish prediction (Western Conference): 

  1. Warriors (65-17)
  2. Rockets  (58-24)
  3. Spurs.     (55-27)
  4. Thunder (53-29)
  5. Trailblazers (47-35)
  6. Timberwolves (45-37)
  7. Jazz (44-38)
  8. Pelicans (43-39)
  9. Nuggets (41-41)
  10. Clippers (40-42)
  11. Grizzlies (39-43)
  12. Kings (35-47)
  13. Lakers (28-54)
  14. Suns (27-55)
  15. Mavericks (22-60)

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Given that the W-L margins are likely to be razor thin, I don't really see this roster being less than competitive with Portland, Utah, New Orleans, Denver, and LAC. I think the Grizzlies could realistically finishing anywhere between sixth and tenth, but eleventh or lower seems like less of a projection of this team's potential than an expectation of the wheels completely falling off at some point. 

Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are a better one-two combination than anyone those teams just mentioned have. And, yes, I think Conley and Gasol are better than an Anthony Davis-Demarcus Cousins combo, simply because we've got an All-Star caliber (hopefully, with the new format) PG and they do not. Same with the imbalance in Portland, with the Lillard-McCollum backcourt - we've got an inside-out duo. 

Our roster is built around Conley and Gasol, to maximize their strengths. And I think, health issues aside, this roster should and will do exactly that.

Obviously, I'm concerned, most of all, about the health of Parsons. I actually think, if Parsons were to be 100%, "Old Parsons," then this Grizzlies roster should be considered on par with the Thunder and Spurs. But, he's not going to be 100% Old Parsons. I'm looking to see if Parsons can be healthy enough for 27-30 good minutes per game, I want to see him put up and average of 4 to 5 three point attempts per game, hitting at 37% or higher. And I'd like to see his overall FG% be around 45% or higher, on 8 to 10 field goal attempts per game. That level of production out of him, playing in roughly or 70 or more games, would see us getting into the Playoffs, almost certainly.

If Parsons is unable to do that, I would wager that Fizzdale and Co. are actually prepared to, if not insert Ennis in the starting lineup, then to give him the majority of minutes at the SF position. The numbers I described for Parsons above are essentially identical to Ennis' efficiency and pace from last season, if Ennis were to just get up a few more threes. So, I think the potential for this team to be very competitive is there, even if Parsons is slightly less than we are hoping for.

The other x-factor is defense. JaMychal Green re-signing is huge in this department. And, I think we're really going to have to look for what Fizzdale is able to get out of Ben McLemore and whether Wayne Selden is able to make another leap forward, and bring that Grit and Grind tenacity on the wing when needed. We'll be seeing a lot of scoring wings this season, and Parsons very clearly is not the guy anyone is going to want attempting to hold down players like Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, or Jimmy Butler. We're going to have to trot someone out there in those situations, and it's probably going to be Selden for the SF/G and, of course, Green for the SF/PF guys. 

I wonder if, in some matchups, Parsons might find himself running more with a second unit, that does not feature an explosive wing scorer that he would have to keep up with, and in which he can be more of a featured scorer. I'll be watching closely for this and how Fizz attempts to handle these individual matchups. I thought Fizz really struggled last season in these situations. 

 

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1 hour ago, Herodotus said:

Given that the W-L margins are likely to be razor thin, I don't really see this roster being less than competitive with Portland, Utah, New Orleans, Denver, and LAC. I think the Grizzlies could realistically finishing anywhere between sixth and tenth, but eleventh or lower seems like less of a projection of this team's potential than an expectation of the wheels completely falling off at some point. 

Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are a better one-two combination than anyone those teams just mentioned have. And, yes, I think Conley and Gasol are better than an Anthony Davis-Demarcus Cousins combo, simply because we've got an All-Star caliber (hopefully, with the new format) PG and they do not. Same with the imbalance in Portland, with the Lillard-McCollum backcourt - we've got an inside-out duo. 

Our roster is built around Conley and Gasol, to maximize their strengths. And I think, health issues aside, this roster should and will do exactly that.

Obviously, I'm concerned, most of all, about the health of Parsons. I actually think, if Parsons were to be 100%, "Old Parsons," then this Grizzlies roster should be considered on par with the Thunder and Spurs. But, he's not going to be 100% Old Parsons. I'm looking to see if Parsons can be healthy enough for 27-30 good minutes per game, I want to see him put up and average of 4 to 5 three point attempts per game, hitting at 37% or higher. And I'd like to see his overall FG% be around 45% or higher, on 8 to 10 field goal attempts per game. That level of production out of him, playing in roughly or 70 or more games, would see us getting into the Playoffs, almost certainly.

If Parsons is unable to do that, I would wager that Fizzdale and Co. are actually prepared to, if not insert Ennis in the starting lineup, then to give him the majority of minutes at the SF position. The numbers I described for Parsons above are essentially identical to Ennis' efficiency and pace from last season, if Ennis were to just get up a few more threes. So, I think the potential for this team to be very competitive is there, even if Parsons is slightly less than we are hoping for.

The other x-factor is defense. JaMychal Green re-signing is huge in this department. And, I think we're really going to have to look for what Fizzdale is able to get out of Ben McLemore and whether Wayne Selden is able to make another leap forward, and bring that Grit and Grind tenacity on the wing when needed. We'll be seeing a lot of scoring wings this season, and Parsons very clearly is not the guy anyone is going to want attempting to hold down players like Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, or Jimmy Butler. We're going to have to trot someone out there in those situations, and it's probably going to be Selden for the SF/G and, of course, Green for the SF/PF guys. 

I wonder if, in some matchups, Parsons might find himself running more with a second unit, that does not feature an explosive wing scorer that he would have to keep up with, and in which he can be more of a featured scorer. I'll be watching closely for this and how Fizz attempts to handle these individual matchups. I thought Fizz really struggled last season in these situations. 

 

I don't see the Grizzlies in the top 10 of the conference this season because I see Parsons not being able to contribute the way people are expecting. I worry about Evans not being as good as people expect either. I don't expect Selden or McLemore to suddenly change into productive 3 and D guys. I am excited about JaMychal Green returning with a chip on his shoulder and stepping up as the 4th option on the team.

However, I am most concerned with a roster playing up tempo without good shooters to make it effective. The team hasn't impressed me on the offensive end for some time and have been able to win despite their poor offense by slowing the game down and playing excellent defense. Running faster will emphasize the poor shooting problems as well as magnifying the opponents ability to score. A double whammy that will make it very difficult to win a lot of games. 

I am cheering for the Grizzlies to prove me wrong on all these issues except JaMychal however. 

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Positions 5-11 will be determined by injuries.  
Heck, 1-4 might be too.  

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1 hour ago, chipc3 said:

I don't see the Grizzlies in the top 10 of the conference this season because I see Parsons not being able to contribute the way people are expecting. I worry about Evans not being as good as people expect either. I don't expect Selden or McLemore to suddenly change into productive 3 and D guys. I am excited about JaMychal Green returning with a chip on his shoulder and stepping up as the 4th option on the team.

However, I am most concerned with a roster playing up tempo without good shooters to make it effective. The team hasn't impressed me on the offensive end for some time and have been able to win despite their poor offense by slowing the game down and playing excellent defense. Running faster will emphasize the poor shooting problems as well as magnifying the opponents ability to score. A double whammy that will make it very difficult to win a lot of games. 

I am cheering for the Grizzlies to prove me wrong on all these issues except JaMychal however. 

 

 

I'm concerned about McLemore's defense, but not his shooting. He''s a shooter and finisher. I believe he's a great fit offensively. The question is whether he'll give up more defensively than he adds offensively.

Selden's shooting has looked great this summer. I'm curious about your skepticism. He may not shoot 40%, but he's shooting well, and he may not be Tony Allen defensively, but he's an athlete with the defensive dog in him. He fits the role and knows his role.

I'm concerned about Parsons, of course. Everyone is. 

I'm concerned about Tyreke's recovery. He hasn't looked well. I'm not really sure what he can contribute, but I'm also not overly concerned, primarily because I have confidence in Chalmers and Selden. 

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On ‎10‎/‎4‎/‎2017 at 10:08 AM, chipc3 said:

I don't see the Grizzlies in the top 10 of the conference this season because I see Parsons not being able to contribute the way people are expecting. I worry about Evans not being as good as people expect either. I don't expect Selden or McLemore to suddenly change into productive 3 and D guys. I am excited about JaMychal Green returning with a chip on his shoulder and stepping up as the 4th option on the team.

However, I am most concerned with a roster playing up tempo without good shooters to make it effective. The team hasn't impressed me on the offensive end for some time and have been able to win despite their poor offense by slowing the game down and playing excellent defense. Running faster will emphasize the poor shooting problems as well as magnifying the opponents ability to score. A double whammy that will make it very difficult to win a lot of games. 

I am cheering for the Grizzlies to prove me wrong on all these issues except JaMychal however. 

This!!! They just don't have the horses to run and score with anybody in the West. They have young, athletic players who just aren't skilled scorers. They will need to lock people up defensively. That was my complaint about letting TA and Z-Bo walk. They didn't upgrade the roster with scorers that thrive in an up-tempo system. Sure, younger, more athletic players will want to (and need to) run more, but the skilled scoring just isn't there. So, unless people like Green, Seldon., Ennis , Baldwin and the rookies can dedicate themselves on the defensive end, its gonna be a loooooong season.

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Is anyone changing their predictions after the first 3 pre-season games? The next one should be more illuminating of course. Houston will be a real test of how well the team is functioning. 

The New Orleans game won’t move my needle at all considering we open the season against them five days later. I doubt either team will do much of anything  in regards to opening night.

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I think the team will win 33-37 games depending on if and when they punt.

Unless Marc becomes a double digit rebounder, this team is in trouble.

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8 hours ago, chipc3 said:

Is anyone changing their predictions after the first 3 pre-season games? The next one should be more illuminating of course. Houston will be a real test of how well the team is functioning. 

The New Orleans game won’t move my needle at all considering we open the season against them five days later. I doubt either team will do much of anything  in regards to opening night.

nope...if this team stays health we are going to be very good...better than what our record win be...I can see use getting off to a slow start (reke,parsons) but being a very deadly team in the POs.

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If I had to bet, I would bet more in line with the predictions of those who have watched this team for 15 years vs. those who have only been around 5 or so years.  In real life, history repeats itself and it does in the NBA as well.  

It's been a long time (maybe since the 23-59 days) since there was such skepticism on these boards.  I don't have a 15 ranking yet, but I think the playoff chances are 50/50%.

 

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14 hours ago, MemphisX said:

I think the team will win 33-37 games depending on if and when they punt.

Unless Marc becomes a double digit rebounder, this team is in trouble.

I think Marc can become a double-digit rebounder but only if Fiz takes away some of his offensive responsibility.  

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