nwagrizzfan

Every Team's Projected 2017-18 Record

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On 8/8/2017 at 3:10 PM, Blackwatch said:

In a 10 year career, Conley averages 20pts/gm once and you want to claim him as a 20 pts/gm scorer? Over his career, he only averages 14.2pts/gm. With the larger sample size of his entire career, I would think that the 20.4 he averaged last year was an outlier and that it would be more precise to note that Conley probably is considered more of a 14pts/gm scorer rather than a 20 pts/gm scorer at this point in his career. Would you agree? Besides, I didn't say those players were not 20pt/gm scorers last year, I said they were not 20 pts/gm scorers period. Conley doesn't score 20 a game over his career, one would hardly consider him one now after only one season.

Mike Conley has been an elite player because he isn't JUST a scorer, but his advanced metrics were better than everyone else.

But if you want to reduce elite to scoring and scoring alone, which seems to be the way of the board, you are missing a lot of what makes basketball great.

Kyrie is going to get 24 points a game if he has to shoot 24 times to get it. Believe that.

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13 minutes ago, Blackwatch said:

I'm pretty sure those efficiency numbers are affected by the fact that Z-Bo came off the bench most of the year. I would like to see the numbers when he started, preferably in the playoffs. Also, Gasol has a size advantage over Z-Bo, and he definitely was not getting double teamed as much in the post as Z-Bo was, mainly because teams knew that Z-Bo was much more of a low post scoring threat. Heck, Gasol was shut down on the low post by Draymont Green, a player 6 inches shorter than Gasol. Name one player in the league that is 6'2" and can shut down Z-bo on the low post? Yeah, the stats would indicate that Gasol was a more effective scorer on the post than Z-Bo, but the eye test and experience says Z-Bo is a way better post player than Gasol.

http://stats.nba.com/players/post-up/#!?sort=PPP&dir=1&CF=PossG*G*2&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular Season

So for 2015-16

Here are the numbers 

Marc on 7.2poss  has a ..89ppp(points per play) on 40%FREQ 

Zbo on 5.9poss has a .89ppp on 36%FREQ

 

Once again Marc actually played in the post more frequently than zbo and scored at the same rate. 

Also you have to stop with the double-team argument.  Marc gets double-teamed just as much as zbo ever has.   I guess you are forgetting that teams figured out to just put their long rangy defenders on zbo to kill his scoring.   Draymond is a defensive player of the year - dude has a pretty good record of stopping lots of players in the post.  

Like i said Zbo has a more vast array of shots in the post - i am not denying that.  However, the most important attribute is being able to score efficiently.  

Heck wasn't that the entire argument in the Rudy versus Zbo debate years back?   Both of them averaged about 18ppg and could hit difficult shots and attract double teams.  Difference was that Zbo 18ppg was scored more efficiently so they chose (correctly) to go with him. 

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Oh you are right about playoffs tho.  Zbo was more effective in less attempts with postup attempts than Marc this past season. 

http://stats.nba.com/players/post-up/#!?sort=PPP&dir=1&CF=PossG*G*2&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Playoffs

Zbo 1.12ppp  27%FREQ  4.3pos

Marc .86ppp  33%FREQ  6.3pos

Which can give credence to the fact that Marc wasn't as good in Postups as zbo in playoffs.  But before you pat yourself on the  back lets look at their EFG% and TS% in playoffs which shows ultimately who is the more effective scorer.     

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612763/players-advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

Marc 50Efg%   55TS%

Zbo 46Efg%  49TS%

And the GOAT   Conley had  54Efg%    60TS% just to set the comparisons. 

Hey if they only allowed you to score within 10ft of the basket all game then maybe you would have an argument.  

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15 minutes ago, GrizzTigerFan said:

http://stats.nba.com/players/post-up/#!?sort=PPP&dir=1&CF=PossG*G*2&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular Season

So for 2015-16

Here are the numbers 

Marc on 7.2poss  has a ..89ppp(points per play) on 40%FREQ 

Zbo on 5.9poss has a .89ppp on 36%FREQ

 

Once again Marc actually played in the post more frequently than zbo and scored at the same rate. 

Also you have to stop with the double-team argument.  Marc gets double-teamed just as much as zbo ever has.   I guess you are forgetting that teams figured out to just put their long rangy defenders on zbo to kill his scoring.   Draymond is a defensive player of the year - dude has a pretty good record of stopping lots of players in the post.  

Like i said Zbo has a more vast array of shots in the post - i am not denying that.  However, the most important attribute is being able to score efficiently.  

Heck wasn't that the entire argument in the Rudy versus Zbo debate years back?   Both of them averaged about 18ppg and could hit difficult shots and attract double teams.  Difference was that Zbo 18ppg was scored more efficiently so they chose (correctly) to go with him. 

Part of Zbo's lack of efficiency is due to losing the "im an elite player" call, which he hasn't gotten in years.

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Just now, Kevin B Moses said:

Part of Zbo's lack of efficiency is due to losing the "im an elite player" call, which he hasn't gotten in years.

I think his barreling into 3 and 4 defenders instead of kicking it out ,hurts too. 

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16 hours ago, Kevin B Moses said:

You mean like LeBron does?

And you wonder why no one takes you seriously.

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17 hours ago, Kevin B Moses said:

You mean like LeBron does?

Lebron doesnt kick the ball out to all of the three point shooters that he usually personally requests his squad to be loaded with?

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1 hour ago, GF#1 said:

And you wonder why no one takes you seriously.

Oh, and by the way, I never wonder why I am not taken seriously. That never crosses my mind.

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If Marc, Mike, Chandler, McLemore and Tyreke play in all 82 games and if JAM gets signed, we could win 50 to 52.

But I'm betting we get our usual injuries and the wheels come off ... so I'm predicting 39 wins.

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On 7/10/2017 at 5:03 PM, nwagrizzfan said:

Matt Moore - CBS - Post FA Power Rankings

 

Looks like #6 seed here......I think this is right

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-power-rankings-warriors-are-no-1-duh-where-do-free-agency-players-land/

for some wacky reason, I have been thinking the same as Matt Moore.  If Parsons can contribute, this team could be as high as 5 in the West. But the key is Parsons. If he is a big fat zero like last year, then maybe we squeeze in at 8.  If you have Mike, Marc, and Parsons as your medium sized 3 as opposed to a "big 3," then you have a nucleus to build around.  JAM is back as an athletic PF who can play D, get rebounds. Wayne Selden could develop into something special with his NBA ready body. 

I think a lot of folks are going to diss the Grizzlies cause of all the player movement in the West with OKC, Houston leading the way in that dept, but I think we could be right there in the middle of it all if Mike Marc and Chandler can develop some chemistry. 

 

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On 9/18/2017 at 6:22 AM, pjoe said:

If Marc, Mike, Chandler, McLemore and Tyreke play in all 82 games and if JAM gets signed, we could win 50 to 52.

But I'm betting we get our usual injuries and the wheels come off ... so I'm predicting 39 wins.

i agree completely with the 50-52 wins prediction (if healthy that is). I think the team should have won 50 games last year but got nothing from Parsons and just had too many games where the team just mailed it in.  That team last year won only like 3 more games than the team 2 years ago that set the record for most players used in a season.  That just tells me that something just wasnt right last season cause the talent was there.  Should have done much better than the 7 seed and 43 wins. (it was 43 wins wasnt it??)

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