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The Truth is OUT

The (Even More) Loaded Western Conference & Grizz Timetable

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So, the WC just gets tougher and tougher.  

We're now at the point that a dozen teams have legitimate playoff aspirations.  For those Calculus majors out there, that's four more teams than playoff spots.

We could even get a serviceable Chandler Parsons back and circumstances beyond our control could make us a lottery team.

I am not a "tanking" guy.  Losing just to get in the lottery is stupidity and seeks to solve everyone's woes through sheer luck of the draw.

Neither am I a "selloff" kind of guy, but without proper assets, we can't do anything but grow older in our core, which is diminishing.  

What I do know, is that we have two choices: 1) trade our best assets while we are coming off a playoff season, or 2) trade our best assets while we are coming off a non-playoff season. We will do one or the other at some point. Guess which of those are a position of strength?  

The reasoning is obvious - try to multiply our assets while we can, giving us more opportunities to trade, barter, draft, whatever.

If I felt we had a strong case at remaining a playoff team, I'd say run them into the dirt. In fact, this has been my position as of late.  But if putting our best team on the court still isn't enough, due to the depth of the conference right now?  Then what are we hanging on to?  People are coming to Grizzlies games because we're winning - not because of who's playing (which is the typical NBA model for success, I might add).  So we can accept losing now while building a Straight or we can accept losing later left with a pair of 9's.

Knowing our franchise, we'll run them into the dirt anyway.  And if we do that, I'll keep my fingers crossed for more post-season appearances.  But man, is that looking dicey right now.

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Iron Mike    0

I think even the roster we had last year, we'd bow out of the playoffs this year. 

Minnesota would take our spot, and we have the Pels with Boogie and AD coming out of training camp. 

We'd prpbably be the 8th seed (at best) if Hayward leaves Utah.

The Parsons signing crippled us real bad, and if things don't work out with him this year then we can say that the signing was our Thabeet moment in the 2010's.

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El Guapo    0

Definitely a tough call when everything is considered. My plan would be to let the dust settle, let the first half of the season play out, and revisit the plan before the trade deadline. Maybe things are clearer then?

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El Guapo    0
8 minutes ago, El Guapo said:

Definitely a tough call when everything is considered. My plan would be to let the dust settle, let the first half of the season play out, and revisit the plan before the trade deadline. Maybe things are clearer then?

Ummm, just keep collecting assets, keep competing, stay away from dumb deals, pounce on the right deal, hope for lightning in a bottle, and let the chips fall where they may. 

You have to rebuild while staying competitive. I'm not sure if we could handle a drawn-out rebuild that may last a decade or more. Maybe a reload plan with a quick turnaround would work, but that would require a good plan and some luck. 

Definitely a rock and a hard place situation. 

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GF#1    0

I think with a healthy-ish Parsons, we're still playoff caliber, but in the 6-8 range.

At the moment, we're definitely behind the Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, Thunder. So definitely not HCA caliber. We'll see if Hayward leaves and where he lands. Portland will only be better this year, finished just 2 games back from us, and they also finished the season 17-6. I see them moving up 2-3 slots in the standings. The T-Wolves will be interesting. They will definitely compete for a 5-8 playoff spot, not necessarily better than us, but a team we'll have to compete hard with. The Pelicans with their twin towers might make some noise. It will help that the Clippers probably fall out of the playoffs, though.

As the months and years go by, it's becoming increasingly difficult to keep up.

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GF#1    0
20 minutes ago, El Guapo said:

Definitely a tough call when everything is considered. My plan would be to let the dust settle, let the first half of the season play out, and revisit the plan before the trade deadline. Maybe things are clearer then?

You definitely don't want a full blown rebuild. It's best to try staying playoff competitive while developing young talent. I'm not sure if Memphis could go through a long term rebuild.

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Dwash    0

Too much talent is being lost or deteriorating and too many all stars are stacking up.  This conference just added 4 recent allstars. 

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Dwash    0
1 hour ago, GF#1 said:

You definitely don't want a full blown rebuild. It's best to try staying playoff competitive while developing young talent. I'm not sure if Memphis could go through a long term rebuild.

But how are they going to get the stud building block picking in the mid teens? Hard to do.

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GF#1    0
7 minutes ago, Dwash said:

But how are they going to get the stud building block picking in the mid teens? Hard to do.

Agree 100% that it will be extremely difficult, especially with Chris Wallace being a huge part of the drafting process. He doesn't have the best track record with 1st round picks, especially in the teens and lower.

I wish we could strike it rich and get a Kawhi somewhere in the teens. We have the coach to get him developed, but we don't have the front office with the eye for talent/potential.

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31 minutes ago, Dwash said:

But how are they going to get the stud building block picking in the mid teens? Hard to do.

 

It will be interesting to see the impact of the unbalanced conferences.  

The East will have inflated records because of the weak conference, while the West will have a lower record because of more games against tougher teams.

In other words, it's quite likely that there could be a team in the East get 30 wins that is much less talented than a 30 win team in the West.

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Allen    0

What playoff team in Nba history has successfully rebuilt their roster on the fly without going into full rebuild mode?

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GF#1    0
22 minutes ago, Allen said:

What playoff team in Nba history has successfully rebuilt their roster on the fly without going into full rebuild mode?

San Antonio. Drafted and developed Kawhi. All of the other parts are essentially interchangeable. Duncan retired, didn't skip a beat. When Parker and Ginobili are gone, they won't skip a beat.

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Jetfixer    0

I agree the West is getting stronger, but beside Houston, it's just getting to the second tier strength to me.  So people want trades, we trade Mike or Marc and only get back guys on there level. You might get some young big name guys, but then your Philly. I think Minny is doing well, but most teams are just moving players. OKC may have a nice year then lose the big name guys to LA.  I hope Parsons somehow proves us wrong, and a few of our young guys surprises us. Short of that, I don't know what to expect the FO to do, most small market teams seem to be either good but not good enough, or suck. I'd rather be good, and hope for luck.

 

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Jetfixer    0
35 minutes ago, GF#1 said:

San Antonio. Drafted and developed Kawhi. All of the other parts are essentially interchangeable. Duncan retired, didn't skip a beat. When Parker and Ginobili are gone, they won't skip a beat.

They didn't rebuild, they retooled. They either got lucky with KL or know something no other team knows. He is one of the best second rounders ever. Honestly, I think Kawhi developed himself, yes SA does a great job, but most Stars will be good anywhere.

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3 hours ago, The Truth is OUT said:

So, the WC just gets tougher and tougher.  

We're now at the point that a dozen teams have legitimate playoff aspirations.  For those Calculus majors out there, that's four more teams than playoff spots.

We could even get a serviceable Chandler Parsons back and circumstances beyond our control could make us a lottery team.

I am not a "tanking" guy.  Losing just to get in the lottery is stupidity and seeks to solve everyone's woes through sheer luck of the draw.

Neither am I a "selloff" kind of guy, but without proper assets, we can't do anything but grow older in our core, which is diminishing.  

What I do know, is that we have two choices: 1) trade our best assets while we are coming off a playoff season, or 2) trade our best assets while we are coming off a non-playoff season. We will do one or the other at some point. Guess which of those are a position of strength?  

The reasoning is obvious - try to multiply our assets while we can, giving us more opportunities to trade, barter, draft, whatever.

If I felt we had a strong case at remaining a playoff team, I'd say run them into the dirt. In fact, this has been my position as of late.  But if putting our best team on the court still isn't enough, due to the depth of the conference right now?  Then what are we hanging on to?  People are coming to Grizzlies games because we're winning - not because of who's playing (which is the typical NBA model for success, I might add).  So we can accept losing now while building a Straight or we can accept losing later left with a pair of 9's.

Knowing our franchise, we'll run them into the dirt anyway.  And if we do that, I'll keep my fingers crossed for more post-season appearances.  But man, is that looking dicey right now.

Tell you what, if and when the grizzlies don't make the playoffs, maybe you have a point. Until then, all this is is fearmongering.

Also, you assume that the grizzlies will want to trade Mike and Marc at some point. What gives you that idea?

Again, most of you all predicted a sweep by the spurs. That didn't happen. In fact, had the grizzlies had a healthy parsons, which is what they were expecting and a healthy tony, we might have won that series.

The grizzlies last year beat all those teams that you are so afraid of last year. They had the best record against elite teams in the conference, which indicates that the grizzlies style is hard for other teams to deal with.

Seems like the grizzlies end some streak golden state is on every year. They play the grizzlies and they lose. Not the other way around.

So stop fearmongering. The grizzlies are an elite team and they prove it every year.

 

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We are focusing way too much on everything wrong. We have a top 7 PG, top 5 center, and maybe we will have the comeback POTY

We have the right coach...we can still compete

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godrick15    0
11 minutes ago, Back2Grizzness said:

We are focusing way too much on everything wrong. We have a top 7 PG, top 5 center, and maybe we will have the comeback POTY

We have the right coach...we can still compete

Include two 6th Man of the Year candidates and one of the top when defensive perimeter players of all time. Grizz needed those enforcers and veteran presences to compete. A top scorer, defense, a good pounding, and a hell of a lot of luck is the only way to get past GSW.  Hoping for guys that will give us  "better spacing, faster offense" is completely useless. No one is going to beat GSW at their own game.

Comeback POTY? That has melo's name written all over him. Parsons was the worst signing and doomed thy franchise. He was never an all star and was no where close.

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godrick15    0

Our best shot was to keep the core and GnG  while hoping a healthy Parsons could produce. Also,  surround the team with a good backup pg to relieve pressure off Conley, perimeter defensive bench players, keep Vince, and develop Deyonta. 

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MemphisX    0
4 hours ago, GF#1 said:

You definitely don't want a full blown rebuild. It's best to try staying playoff competitive while developing young talent. I'm not sure if Memphis could go through a long term rebuild.

I disagree x 1000. You are saying that treadmilling is better than bottoming out. 

There is nothing unique about Memphis. Attendance falls everywhere except maybe 5 organizations during low years. Organizations should plan for that fact. 

We are still borderline playoffs but have no assets to get us in due to ***** poor drafting. I say keep struggling to make the playoffs until the entire front office is gone.

I am quite fine with a mini-tank while keeping Mike and Marc. Get out a lottery pick. Hope to make Boston get a crap pick in 2019 and then part the team out. One caveat, Marc may opt out of his last year to secure one last long term deal for more overall money.

The hope is Boston gives us our pick plus more for Marc this season though...

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Father Pat    0
8 minutes ago, godrick15 said:

Our best shot was to keep the core and GnG  while hoping a healthy Parsons could produce. Also,  surround the team with a good backup pg to relieve pressure off Conley, perimeter defensive bench players, keep Vince, and develop Deyonta. 

No. I think that would have been very wrong.

We were the worst shooting team in the league. That isn't going to get better by hanging on to and relying on the same old players.

The Grizzlies can't attract quality free agents, nor can they afford to go over the tax. That leaves trading and the draft. In order to get a decent player in a trade you have to have talent that you can part with. It all boils down to the fact that in order to compete, the Grizzlies absolutely must develop players. It needs to be the FO's prime motivation.

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Father Pat    0
7 minutes ago, MemphisX said:

One caveat, Marc may opt out of his last year to secure one last long term deal for more overall money.

The hope is Boston gives us our pick plus more for Marc this season though...

You know he will. No doubt in my mind.

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2 hours ago, Jetfixer said:

They didn't rebuild, they retooled. They either got lucky with KL or know something no other team knows. He is one of the best second rounders ever. Honestly, I think Kawhi developed himself, yes SA does a great job, but most Stars will be good anywhere.

Kawhi was drafted 15, not in 2nd round.

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Dwash    0
4 hours ago, Grizzled Vet said:

 

It will be interesting to see the impact of the unbalanced conferences.  

The East will have inflated records because of the weak conference, while the West will have a lower record because of more games against tougher teams.

In other words, it's quite likely that there could be a team in the East get 30 wins that is much less talented than a 30 win team in the West.

I have never really agreed with conference strength having this great impact on records because 30 out of 82 games are played against the other conference. It matters but its overexaggerated.

The Hawks, Bulls and Pacers dropped out but dont sleep on a team like Philly coming up and Miami playing well all year. The Pistons could be better too if Jackson plays all year and the Hornets could too 

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1 hour ago, MemphisX said:

I disagree x 1000. You are saying that treadmilling is better than bottoming out. 

There is nothing unique about Memphis. Attendance falls everywhere except maybe 5 organizations during low years. Organizations should plan for that fact. 

We are still borderline playoffs but have no assets to get us in due to ***** poor drafting. I say keep struggling to make the playoffs until the entire front office is gone.

I am quite fine with a mini-tank while keeping Mike and Marc. Get out a lottery pick. Hope to make Boston get a crap pick in 2019 and then part the team out. One caveat, Marc may opt out of his last year to secure one last long term deal for more overall money.

The hope is Boston gives us our pick plus more for Marc this season though...

Treadmilling could work if you have really good management that is able to acquire assets with mid-range picks and value free agent signings. Spurs were able to build up assets with late/mid-round picks like George Hill/Kawhi/etc, Murray looks like another good value guy plus the free agent guys they acquired in the past recently like Green, Simmons, etc. Or look at how Darryl Morey has been able to acquire guys like Chris Paul, Harden and Dwight Howard and the most valuable thing he ever traded in all of those trades was Steven Adams, they have never had a pick higher than 12 since Morey has been there. 

 

The Grizzlies either trade their picks or completely waste them. 

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4 hours ago, Kevin B Moses said:

Tell you what, if and when the grizzlies don't make the playoffs, maybe you have a point. Until then, all this is is fearmongering.

Also, you assume that the grizzlies will want to trade Mike and Marc at some point. What gives you that idea?

Again, most of you all predicted a sweep by the spurs. That didn't happen. In fact, had the grizzlies had a healthy parsons, which is what they were expecting and a healthy tony, we might have won that series.

The grizzlies last year beat all those teams that you are so afraid of last year. They had the best record against elite teams in the conference, which indicates that the grizzlies style is hard for other teams to deal with.

Seems like the grizzlies end some streak golden state is on every year. They play the grizzlies and they lose. Not the other way around.

So stop fearmongering. The grizzlies are an elite team and they prove it every year.

 

I'm not fearmongering.  I'm trying to take a very reasoned look at what the next few years look like.  The reality is we have no real assets to speak of coming in for a couple more years.  Gasol is clearly at the beginning of the end of his peak years.  He's filling the slot of one of our top 2 guys right now.    

The problem is not so much us, as it is where we sit compared to everyone else.  When I look at injury histories - particularly knee injuries - over my time as a fan of the NBA, if Parsons couldn't go this year, statistically speaking, he probably won't ever again.  I allowed the fact that the signing was approved by the league office as a clean bill of health, but obviously that wasn't correct.  So the realist in me says to not count on that.  So now we have that albatross to deal with.  

To me, the gutsy play would be to trade Gasol, right now - and hope you can get the right combo of current and future assets that Conley and Co. can keep our team competitive long enough to see if any of our young pups can become something special. That too becomes a long shot, but it is also a more aggressive play.

And no, the Grizzlies are not an elite team.  I guess it depends on your definition of elite.  To me, an elite team is one that can at least be spoken of as a darkhorse to get to the finals of their division.  That's different from a perennial playoff team. And I'd be ok with only that, if we looked like that.  But if we lose Z-bo and TA - heck, just Z-bo - our team will be more different than people are admitting to themselves.

All I am talking about is the merits of going ahead and reading the Western Conference landscape while we are coming off a playoff year.  If we don't make the playoffs this season, and all these teams ahead of us do no worse than stand pat, we're now looking at the end of the run with these guys.  And at that point, everybody's on the block, and we're getting less for them than we might have otherwise.

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